Sherdil

$SLV - Going back to atleast 2010, whenever SLV had an outsized volume at the top like today, it was followed by a decent down move in the following days. I am short SLV via puts and ZSL.

@CRUDEOIL231 Let's see. Cut loss or sunk cost fallacy galore.

@SherdilTX Either swallow your pride and surrender or go all the way to the end. There is no middle ground.

I think way too many ppl are delusional about this idea of letting Iran control the SoH, having the US pull out, and just letting Iran set up a toll booth. Where does Saudi’s power actually come from? It’s not just because they’re rich. Their entire influence comes from being the world’s only swing Producer. We need oil, and Saudi controls that market. If Iran takes over the SoH, they become the most powerful, one of a kind Global Swing Producer in history. If they don’t like the oil price? They can just "adjust" the traffic in a strait that handles ~20mb/d to swing prices however they want. If the UAE gets on Iran’s bad side? "No passage for UAE tankers." If Kuwait tries to build a bypass? "Fine, the SoH is closed starting today. Let’s see if you can finish that bypass—which takes years—without making a single dime." By letting Iran control that flow, the US is effectively making Iran the ultimate energy gatekeeper. The entire regional hegemony shifts to Iran. Saudi and the UAE lose everything. Think about it—if you were MBS, would you let this happen? Let’s say the US pulls out this week. The US started this mess, and now the GCC has to just sit there and watch their power handed over to Iran? Let me give you a reality check for Americans: Imagine Mexico now controls the North American continent. "Want to fly to the UK? Get Mexico’s permission. Want to import jet fuel from Asia? Pay Mexico a toll and take the route they tell you to. Did you dare to criticize Mexico? Now, no container ships can enter your waters. You can’t say a word against the great President of Mexico." It sounds like a fantasy, but that’s the reality for the GCC. If the US tries to run away? If I were the GCC, I wouldn’t let them leave. I’d grab them by the hair and drag them back to clean up the mess they made. I’ve said before that this is an existential issue for Iran and Israel. Well, Iranian control of the SoH is an existential issue for every other GCC nation. And the GCC has leverage. They have massive wealth invested in the West, huge U.S. asset holdings, decades of lobbying networks, and they are the biggest donors for Trump’s terms. And of course they have oil. Do you really think Brent would stay below $100/bbl if the GCC teamed up and cut just 3mb/d for six months? Even the most optimistic guy knows the answer is zero chance. They don't even need a fancy excuse: "Oh, since the US gave up on us and Iran owns the SoH, it's not safe. We have to cut production. Sorry!" Within months, the US would be begging to come back. It’s just pushing the Middle East into an even bigger pit of fire. Thanks for listening to my TED Talk :) #oott #iran

THIS IS GETTING STRANGE 🚨 A wallet that made nearly $500,000 by predicting the exact dates of the previous strikes on Iran is back Now it has placed over $800K on US troops entering Iran Potential payout: $1,200,000+

You don't find trades by scrolling charts and buying what looks good. Layer one: a technical indicator showing an extreme. RSI oversold, price at a Bollinger Band, some measurable signal that says "pay attention here." Layer two: check what the options market is doing. Is vol rising or falling into the move? Vol rising into a selloff means fear is real. Vol falling into a selloff means smart money isn't panicking. Layer three: check skew. Is put skew still super bid, or is it pivoting? If skew is relaxing while vol compresses at a technical extreme, you have three independent confirmations. Price alone tells you nothing about positioning. And positioning is what determines whether a level holds or breaks. Conviction goes up when more of these layers align. You can express views at any conviction level, but you size up when all three confirm. Fewer confirmations = smaller position or no trade at all.

@MasterPandaWu love it when my read aligns with pandas

Busy Trading Session: (1) a trending day with key levels to watch; (2) will get to my 6450 zone mid-day, and expect a small rebound in last hour or so; (3) the long weekend may usher in a totally different war picture--ground troop joining the conflict, will keep some 4/6 puts.

@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt comparing front month wti to jun for brent. apples to oranges.

@JohnLoc18 Good to see her recovering. Best wishes.

She fell from stairs and she had emergency knee surgery. She is fine for now, I wanna say thanks to all of you, but I’ll be off to take care of her for little while, take care and good luck trading.

@TheProfInvestor Almost there. Scaling in puts now.

@TheProfInvestor I think this will go to 6666 and then drop hard. Lets see. I have been positioned long since yesterday and bleeding badly.

The Famous Wall Street trick- wear everyone out and then drop it. Rounded top to an Ugly breakdown. A sucker rally next week to 6550 before final checkmate move to 6000 $SPX $SPY

@Zac_Markovich Markets are closed friday.

$SPY Retesting daily downtrend if your a bear this is where the “re-short” entry would be. We did break out of momentum downtrend. Im expecting at least a pullback here. Probably selling off into EOD Friday. Jobless claim reports come out soon there will be renewed fears going into that number release.

I’ll be very clear with my thoughts: If conflict is ongoing, still lower. If conflict is resolved still lower. Crude I still see staying higher into June. Dollar put in low of year already. I still see the best buying opportunity in October of this year for our index’s.

@JohnLoc18 Hope she gets better soon. Take care.

Hi quick update: My mom is not quiet stable yet, I don’t care about money anymore. It’s been a long night for me.

@JohnLoc18 Prayers for her quick recovery. Take care.

Hi everyone I’m with my mom in the hospital now, I’ll post later.

Whales loaded the boat on the 6/18/26 $400 $MU Calls! Demand zone of $310-322 held just like in January!

Regardless of how the Middle East conflict ultimately unfolds, structurally, the biggest beneficiaries from all of this remain Latin America & Hard Assets

Seems like we’re heading into a few optimistic days - which makes this the perfect setup to open $QQQ ratio put spreads. The logic is simple: let time decay work over the long weekend while sentiment stays elevated. If the market rolls over and takes another leg lower after that, the positioning pays off asymmetrically. You’re essentially buying time during optimism, to monetize fear. And I’ve explained before how I pick strikes and timeframes. From now on, I won’t be publishing any more of my $QQQ trades. You can look back at what I’ve done in the past, take inspiration, and build your own framework. That’s where the real edge comes from anyway - not copying trades, but understanding the logic behind them. All I’ll say is this: $QQQ spreads have contributed roughly ~15% to my portfolio year-to-date. Take that however you want.

@JohnLoc18 Not sure what this is doing to your mental health but its a good show for everyone else.

New positions, target 632 gap $SPY

@MarioNawfal disgusting

@JohnLoc18 werent you already short. you mean added to your short....

Jumped in and short the pop $SPY

This is the official roadmap for the next 5 years. Read this carefully. Stage 1: 20% Correction. (2026) Stage 2: Blow-off top to 10,000. (2026–2030) Stage 3: Worst crash in stock market history. (2030+) This correction is the last great buying opportunity of the DECADE. The blow-off top hasn't happened yet. AI mania will fuel the last leg to 10,000. Then the bubble POPS. Here's what you do: Stack cash on this correction. Ride the blow-off top. Get out before 2030. When I call the bottom — YOU BUY. When I call the top — YOU SELL. By the time people realize I was right all along, it will be too late.