Hard to love the $PLTR valuation/multiple.
Hard not to love the $PLTR fundamentals.
Q1 results:
+85% YoY revenue growth
+16% QoQ revenue growth
+104% YoY US growth
+133% YoY US commercial growth
+84% YoY US government growth
60% operating margins
Q2 guidance:
$1.8B revenues... implies +80% YoY growth
FY2026 guidance:
$7.656B revenues... implies +71% YoY growth
Based on my estimates for the next 12 months... $PLTR is now trading under 40x NTM ev/revs for the first time in 18+ months
$PLTR might be slightly overvalued but there's only a few publicly traded companies on the planet with better fundamentals and their names on Micron and Hynix which ironically trade at less than 6x NTM EPS.
Based on my estimates for the next 12 months... $PLTR is now trading at 85x NTM EPS which isn't too crazy when you consider that EPS is growing at least +100% YoY in FY2026 and might grow another +60% YoY in FY2027.
Personally I think it's unfair to judge $PLTR's valuation based on a revenue multiple because their margins are so incredible. $PLTR at 85x NTM EPS is expensive but it's not insane if their EPS grows at a 80% CAGR for the next 2 years.
I guess the question for investors is what does EPS growth look like in FY2027, FY2028 and FY2029... and whether that P/E multiple will need to compress further and whether the EPS growth can offset the multiple compression whereby the stock still has upside from here over the next 2-3 years. It's possible that $PLTR needs to spend a little more time growing into their current multiple.
Think about this... $CRWD now trades at a higher NTM P/E multiple than $PLTR ...yet... $CRWD growth rates are literally less than 1/3 of $PLTR's growth rates.
$CRWD is trading at 92x NTM EPS with EPS expected to grow at a 29% CAGR for the next 2 years. No idea how you justify this.
This means $CRWD's PEG ratio is considerably higher than $PLTR's PEG ratio because you're factoring in growth rates... tbh, it's not even close... $PLTR looks cheap compared to $CRWD haha
$PLTR might be 20% overvalued but $CRWD might be 50% overvalued.
NFA.
DYOR.
*We own $PLTR at @FirstWaveFund and would most likely continue holding our position as long as $PLTR stays above $120
Feel free to share your thoughts on $PLTR or $CRWD and which stock you'd rather own for the next 2-3 years considering their respective fundamentals and valuations.
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Chamath on Mag 7 capex numbers and what means for capital allocation
"These companies will now get levered and highly sophisticated around the financial engineering. They will have more debt and all kinds of different vehicles. Term loans and revolvers, and all of this stuff.
And so they will look like these big bulky industrial businesses in 5 years. And I am not sure if there is a good valuation case to be made"
¡Así murió el millonario Ernie Dosio, brutalmente aplastado por una manada de cinco elefantes enfurecidos junto a su cría!
Mientras cazaba antílopes, los gigantes se sintieron amenazados y, en una estampida de furia salvaje, lo pisotearon sin misericordia hasta dejarlo destrozado bajo sus toneladas de músculo y rabia.
Un final tan cruel como inesperado para un hombre que lo tenía todo.
@Jhonffonseca
@EdKrassen I bet Brand has never been silent for thst long in his life. A grifter. Good for Pierce for asking tough questions. Not like Tucker who threw him softballs.
@JonahLupton@SahilBloom Jonah I suggest you add a cold plunge in the mix and alternate. My testosterone levels went up 200% and have stayed that way for almost 4 years now.
@SahilBloom Obviously cardio, weights, diet, sleep, supplements, etc are all important but in terms of “investment” it’s definitely an infrared sauna — nothing else even comes close
@juliandorey Bannon’s career path at that time was very different. In the late ’80s early ’90s, he was working investment banking (notably at Goldman Sachs) later moved into media and political projects. He did have some involvement in financing later on, but nothing connected to Seinfeld.
Kurt Metzger CONFRONTED Me on the Steve Bannon Conspiracy…
What starts as a discussion quickly turns into a full breakdown — questioning what’s real, what’s exaggerated, and why this topic keeps coming up.
It’s one of those conversations that doesn’t stay calm for long.
@kurtmetzger
SHE IS BROKE!
Is anyone having a worst 2026 than Kristi Noem; Minnesota, hamulating congressional hearings, being fired, losing her free government mansion and jet...and her husband being revealed as a cross dresser.
Now- according to federal financial disclosures- she is also broke, in debt for between $2.6M and $3.35M
Your Thoughts?
@GrahamStephan I sold our only rental condo in Santa Monica last October. We had positive cash flow, but between rising HOA fees, the building needing a new roof, new sewer line, and dealing with tenants demands, we just didn’t want to rent it again.
I’ve spent a decade telling people to do what I do: "Buy and Hold."
Now I've decided to list my entire real estate portfolio for sale and walk away.
It started slow. The bills, the maintenance, the tax increases... but the final straw was when I tried to develop an ADU to do exactly what the city of LA claims it wants investors like me to do: Create more housing. You'd think they'd make it easier, but after two delayed inspections, a sewer pipe replacement that needed 75 days advance notice, and a city-owned tree that became my responsibility, I'd had enough.
The identity of being a real-estate guy is very hard to walk away from, trust me. For a long time, I stayed just because real estate was my "thing." It’s how I started. It’s what I’m known for. It led to every good thing in my life. But that blinded me to the fact that just because something served me in the past, it doesn't mean things haven't changed in the present.
The reality of 2026 finally stripped the emotion away. My LA rentals are netting about 4-5% after the constant background noise of taxes, insurance spikes, and repairs. Meanwhile, a risk-free Treasury pays 5%. The trade-off just doesn't make sense any more.
I’m reallocating to a liquid portfolio that actually lets me focus on the work I love. I published a deep dive on my Substack about the ADU nightmare that broke my patience, the exact numbers behind the exit, and where I’m moving the money next to buy back my sanity.
I'll drop the link here in a bit.
I love $NBIS but one thing to be aware of is a possible dilution event.
The stock has run 50% in a week, and they are a capital intensive business.
Just something to be aware of as an investor, not saying its guaranteed but the probability is definitely non-zero.
*PRESIDENT TRUMP: All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with. If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the “Shootin’ Starts,” bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before. It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE. In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest. AMERICA IS BACK!
@EndicottInvests I do think it will hold and Iran gains control now of the Straits and will get sanctions lifted and become stronger because of Trumps incompetent miscalculation.
Chris Camillo got rich investing in things no one else was looking at ... and @ChrisCamillo thinks there's a trend HERE
"Looksmaxxing is a durable supercycle trend that is going to meaningfully impact this next generation"
@stocktalkweekly We have to first rid ourselves of the morons in this country. At least that will be our main focus moving forward. Cleaning up the huge mess the Orange blob is creating
@matt_nealy@stocktalkweekly I know exactly what it does for our economy and now that Trump has ruined just about every relationship we have around the world, except Israel, thst has zero natural resources, why would the world want to continue to fund the US economy. We have lost all credibility.
A month ago we had an AI bull market, declining inflation, falling gas prices & impending rate cuts.
One miscalculation later, we have an AI bear market, rising inflation, rising gas prices, potential rate hikes, and Americans killed in action.
A fumble of epic proportions...
@EndicottInvests What’s dumber are the remaining Trump supporters thst just can’t admit what a moron he actually is. Which I guess makes them bigger morons.
@matt_nealy@stocktalkweekly And why should the world allow the US Dollar to contiue to be pegged to the petro dollar. Why not gold? Oh, because we are America 🇺🇸 China is bidding its time, watching all of this stupidly play out.
You ever hear of BRICS? The former Iran was a China proxy. Iran was trying to force a shift from the U.S. dollar to the Chinese yuan (renminbi) for oil payments by controlling traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This initiative aimed to bypass U.S. sanctions and directly challenge the petrodollar system. Iran was trying to enforce this by requiring that oil tankers passing through the strategic waterway use the Chinese currency.
@foliotrail Julian there are others like me that had 25% cash most of 2025 and still did 50% return because of names like APP and HOOD to name two. I also went to 45% cash in January. Put 25% of that cash to work Friday and today. I don’t make claims on social media, but it is possible
Camp 2: "I'm buying the dip. Adding more here. Generational opportunity."
Great. With what capital? If you were fully invested going into this (like most of us), there's no cash to "buy the dip" with. Unless you're admitting you were sitting at 40% cash, in which case your 2024–2025 performance was a lie.
Or you're leveraging up. Which isn't investing. It's gambling with a nice font.