Shortsighted Capital

@viggy_krishnan @pekwat @HatfieldCapital @rev_cap I think a lot of states / municipalities seeing rapid growth now are leery of defined benefit plans for this reason. They’ve generally tried to shift investment risk to the employees. Strength of public sector unions also a big driving force.

Paying taxes. Blue state Short Term Capital gains are 54%. It’s really an amazing number when you think about it. I believe that is the highest all in cap gains rate in the world

His ultimate takeaway is interesting. Probably warrants the caveat "be early and be right" (can say that about so many things). Everything cycles, and entering near a cycle top is painful

Not the first person to say this, but I suspect the quartz crisis ends up being a useful parallel for the future of ICE cars. In 50 years, luxury automakers will probably be making ICE vehicles for rich guys that are objectively inferior to then-ubiquitous autonomous EVs.

Didn't expect an essay on the Swiss watch industry from @paulg - nicely captures the awkwardness of moving from consumer goods to luxury / Veblen goods paulgraham.com/brandage.html

@jclarkson203 @ExcessDefaults Me, in a widget co meeting: “Back in 2021, I remember you said that you were now a tech company. Now you say that you are *not* a tech company?”

For the past few years, a reasonable pushback to new private credit allocations has been “spreads are tight.” (Of course, you could argue returns still looked pretty good) But, at an institutional level, can you allocate if/when spreads widen? ft.com/content/d49d4a…

@lynchbages That is fantastic. Was unaware

@ShortSightedCap so you don't have to look it up... muni bonds issued by the Massachusetts Municipal Wholesale Electric Co

I'm surprised by the survival of some terms in the bond market. A Dim Sum bond just *sounds* offensive. Sushi bonds. Panda Bonds. Maple bonds. I'm not sure a human being ever has been offended by bond market terminology. But there have been dumber controversies.

@ExcessDefaults @OnodaCapital Seems like a lot of those trading firms can be traced back to CME pit trading. Heritage is pretty deep. But I wonder where the next generation of such firms will set up shop.

@ShortSightedCap @OnodaCapital wonder why drw / jump haven't "jumped" yet

Chicago had Citadel and BAM and they blew it

On a related note - if you decided to reduce exposure, where would you re-allocate to? If private credit is impaired, then PE is probably *really* impaired. VC / growth? Oh, the asset class that’s highly exposed to software? Absolute return publics? HY? A future in which private credit is substantially impaired seems pretty bad for most risk assets.

@d_rose92 Oh I’m curious. Is it a company that offers financing? Are you using procedure volumes as an economic indicator?

I used “breast augmentation” professionally in a an IC deck today I invest in financial services How was your day?

@xtramedium666 You can pay somebody to wear Tom Ford / Burberry / [insert luxury brand here] frames… but they all look the same. There are brands with a distinct design - RayBan, Oakley (historically) - but they are in the minority. I doubt luxottica cares, tbh.

@ShortSightedCap Doesn’t the deep pocketed Luxottica just throw $$ at certain celeb/influencers and kneecap them?

I enjoy walking around malls. High end, low end, indoor, outdoor - whatever. A month or two back, I was in South Coast Plaza. For those unfamiliar, it’s one of the higher end malls in the US. Crazy sales per sq ft. I am not cool enough to know half the stores there.

I might be a massive contra when it comes to luxury brands… but it seems like they are still early in their life cycle, and can scale production for a while before risking brand dilution? (And I say this as somebody who would look ridiculous wearing these)

Kind of interesting to look at who has invested - looks like a tight circle of consumer focused VC/growth firms. Felix, Midi, Liberty Equity, Label... some amount of portfolio overlap too (e.g. Grivel climbing gear, Black Crows ski brand).