Simon

On Tuesday night, Toronto gathered to talk Prediction Markets. Bot makers, traders, builders, and plenty of folks who were just there to monitor the situation. Upfront: curated lectures. On every wall: we projected markets, experimental UI, and @Osint613 feeds. @shayne_coplan this is how you build a situation room ;) During intermission, the crowd erupted in conversation. There is a real connection on this topic, and a LOT to say. We heard from @GalenHogg : lessons learned vibe coding polymarket trading bots We heard from @surbhibarar: Building a globally accessible prediction market startup We heard from @0xWeiler from @MessariCrypto: Detailed analysis on @Polymarket's valuation PredictTO is just getting started. We cover information theory, experimental economics, trading bot meta strategy, and good old fashioned Futarchy. Our next event is going to be extra special this summer, I encourage you to keep an eye on this space ;) For those wanting more, we are also co-sponsoring the @predictionconlv in Vegas on April 22-24. We are about to 100x on content, speakers, and experiences.

@joostienXD @Polysights what a vibe

Good bye America, hello San Francisco!🤠 If you’re in town let’s have a chat ! ☕️ @Polysights

HIP-4 is not trying to replace polymarket, not in the way most people are seeing it HIP-4 is simply betting that there is a TAM for traders who wants to trade event contracts while leveraging with perps simultaneously cross-margin, permissionless markets and onchain order matching these are the features that makes HIP-4 very different from polymarket great breakdown, you should read this!

May 4-11, Toronto founders have their home. A 24/7 place to build, focus their pitch, and raise $250k from @colosseum sign up now 👇 (yes this is the view from the office)

I’ve been one of the biggest market makers on Polymarket for a long time. At peak I was doing $10M+ daily volume and paying thousands in fees every single day. The current state is the worst the platform has ever felt. Ghost fills still everywhere. Markets constantly breaking. Payouts randomly missing. Exploits going on for months while the team says “it’s fixed”. You spend more time defending against bugs than actually trading. Meanwhile, communication is a joke. They say “we’re listening” → ignore emails, ignore DMs. They say “we’ll work with top users” → instead it’s random private Telegram groups with whoever shouts the loudest. They say “issue fixed” → it clearly isn’t. At some point you stop believing anything they say. The fee situation is another one. If you’re generating serious volume and paying serious fees (thousands a day), most exchanges shower you with attention and perks. I'm not asking for that but would be nice to at least be acknowledged that you exist and have basic communication, especially after they've announced publicly multiple times that they will start doing this. Instead we got a week-long hype campaign for a “big update” that turned out to be… a hidden fee increase. How dumb do you think your users are? And then stuff like April 5th, missed referral/rebate payments, no announcement, no explanation, nothing. Just silence. That’s not a bug, that’s trust damage. The bigger issue is it feels like nobody on the team has actual trading experience. The design decisions show it. Every update introduces new edge cases, new exploits, new ways to break the order book. People have made many millions exploiting this stuff. Many of these accounts are obvious, trackable, preventable. The community has been pointing it out for months. Ignored. Only now that the markets are borderline unusable does it seem like there’s urgency. Right now the platform is honestly close to untradeable: – ghost fills – manipulation – unreliable payouts – constant bugs – zero transparency And surprise, volume is dropping. Meanwhile Kalshi is catching up fast (have basically overtaken in volume in almost every category except for politics) and Hyperliquid is entering with a team that actually understands trading systems. I want Polymarket to succeed. And yes, maybe the upcoming ghost fill fix helps. But if this pattern continues, terrible communication, fake timelines, ignoring core users, then this won’t be a place serious traders stick around. You can’t build a market while eroding the trust of the people who provide the liquidity, especially not as a many multi billion dollar company! I have spoken to many large polymarket whales (of which a considerable amount have already given up on the platform) and they all share this sentiment. @Polymarket @mustafap0ly @SuhailKakar @_kanarazu_

Get this man a venue stat!

I’ve been a Polymarket user since 2023 and never felt this frustrated trading on the platform. The UX has gone from just buggy to borderline predatory. Market orders not getting filled even when the portfolio shows they did, while ghost limit orders milking all the LP rewards.

@0xlykt hyperliquid is already out the gates very strong with HIP4, i think if the polymarket crowd gets a taste of perps on a janky exchange (ahem) they will migrate to the best in class

I think Polymarket's only moats on crypto binaries right now are: - Simpler UI (highly debatable) - Easier onboarding process - Lack of awareness about Hyperliquid (this is a big one) Polymarket has far higher fees, worse infrastructure, and often has frontend bugs (eg. different prices displayed when opened on different windows) Polymarket depends on a steady supply of clueless normie gamblers - if Hyperliquid can attract this audience, it's probably over for Polymarket

Everyone knows @superteam uplifts Solana builders But I didn’t realize how early they show up Seeing them support teams still at the MVP stage was one of the best parts of the deep dive With local communities like this, there’s really no better place to build than on Solana

x402 and agentic API calls only make sense for ambiguous needs. Maybe today you need xyz API but tomorrow something different. Anything else is better off with subscription

Massive vibe shift happening around Polymarket right now. Just in time for HIP4 to be the kalshi counterweight

stopped all my Polymarket strategies. had a great run. was even a whale on one of the markets for quite a while. unfortunately, PM’s infra never caught up, and fees eroded edge. gonna redeploy when @HyperliquidX HIP-4 fully opens up. It’s where prediction market future lies.

Here's some alpha 😉 We've put together a Skill-Kit for you @colosseum builders.

@jedgar Kino

Data centers are beautiful.

@CaptiMap_ @boardyai @AidanAlmighty @SpiroJacob14759 Heyyy we’re captimaps 🫰 🫰

@boardyai @AidanAlmighty @SimiStern @SpiroJacob14759

Tag an underrated builder/founder who deserves way more attention. You can self-tag if you want.

@MickBransfield Missing predictTO 😉

Prediction market conferences are proliferating.

@drobinsonyyc @colosseum @build_canada fair enough. I do think we all want the same thing at the end of the day though which is a prosperous canada

@SimiStern @colosseum @build_canada That mitigates it, but I don't think it makes it a good faith move

Build Canada is not a serious movement. I suggested @colosseum hackathon projects around civic transparency, and this was the response from one of the admins 🤯 @build_canada with insane levels of trust in the bureaucrats they aim to hold accountable

@KadriJibraan This was always the endgame unfortunately

this is so dystopian wtf

One of the most productively shipping teams in prediction markets 🔥

@drobinsonyyc @colosseum @build_canada I would usually but buildCanada is a public/civic movement whose actions aim to affect all Canadians, of which I happen to be one. Better for those conversations to be out in the open right? I deliberately left his name out of the screenshot tbf

@SimiStern @colosseum @build_canada fair enough, imo just delete the post and go have the discussion privately

@patrickkeenanme @colosseum @build_canada Well I wasn’t asking his permission for anything, just suggesting a hackathon. I do think blockchain could play a role if government activity was meaningfully on-chain. Dismissing it outright is not actually helpful to that conversation

@SimiStern @colosseum @build_canada lol wut? You don’t need their permission, but honestly blockchain is not gonna solve the problem, I think he was being kind.