
Simon Spavound
318 posts

Simon Spavound
@SimonSpavound
Head of Data Science, US Ops @Peak_HQ, Forecasting, Economics and #rstats enthusiast. PhD Economics from @LancasterUni. Views my own.
United Kingdom Katılım Kasım 2015
578 Takip Edilen135 Takipçiler

@abhinavcurious Add legal, and compliance, and strategy...
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Simon Spavound retweetledi

@s8mb I think prices overall might adjust but the individual level distortion remains as I am "locked-in" to my lower taxes due to my older valuation
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@SimonSpavound That’s interesting. Wouldn’t that just capitalise into the house price (making it lower), rather than deterring moving?
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@dc_lawrence I think this is an interesting proposal, particularly as it avoids the government/council having to revalue the property. A downside is that by only doing re-evaluations at sale you could cause some weird effects to discourage moving (compare with Prop 13 in CA which is similar)
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You might be thinking, this all sounds well and good, but how do we avoid it costing huge amounts of money to the Treasury?
We’ve designed a phased implementation that ensures a property tax is revenue-positive from day one, and raises vastly more than stamp duty in the long run.
In addition, we propose:
🏰 An ‘additional rate’ of 0.5% on properties worth over £2m (applied at the margin for value that exceeds £2m)
⚖️ A progressive schedule, so those with the broadest shoulders pay the most
✉️ Removal of the existing ‘envelopped properties’ loophole, whereby residential properties can be hidden in corporate structures to avoid tax.
This allows the Treasury to meet its fiscal rules while transitioning Britain to a fairer, more efficient system of property taxation.
You can read the full report from @pdmsero & me here: britishprogress.org/briefings/duty…
Huge thanks for feedback & input from lots of very smart people, including @johnrmyers @timleunig @arunadvaniecon @JamesHowat1 @morgan_wild @Sam_Dumitriu @bswud @KaneEmerson @freddie_poser & Matthew Stubbs.

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Everyone hates stamp duty. Everyone knows an annual property tax would be better. But no one has come up with a plan that:
1️⃣ Fully removes stamp duty
2️⃣ Leaves no one worse off than on the current system
3️⃣ Raises money for the Treasury from day one
Until now.
There are a plethora of think tank reports advocating switching from stamp duty to an annual property tax. Because stamp duty sucks! It gums up the property market and makes it costly to move house.
As a result, people stay in the wrong place for longer:
💼 workers pay a penalty for moving to new job opportunities
🪹 empty-nesters are effectively fined for downsizing
🧑🍼 new parents can’t afford homes large enough for their families.
But there’s a reason that no government has managed to replace it: ending stamp duty means EITHER:
⬇️ Foregoing a huge amount of revenue (close to £12bn) for years, OR
⬆️ Massively raising taxes on people who have just bought a house (and already paid stamp duty)
For all the pages that have been written on stamp duty, no one has managed to design a tax that avoids this dilemma.
We think we have an answer.
Our scheme would give buyers a choice: when you next buy a house, you can EITHER pay stamp duty on the current system, OR you commit to paying an annual property tax - 0.16% for an average property worth £300,000 (which works out at £480 a year).
For someone who moves house twice in 10 years, this will be a huge saving on the current system, as shown below:

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Simon Spavound retweetledi

@AntBreach @HCH_Hill Definitely check out the Atkinson's coffee shop inside!
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When did Microsoft make copying images into Office so much more difficult? Every time I muscle-memory paste this appears - meaning I have to right-click and go to a menu-item. Is there some reason that this is the default? #office #microsoft #softwaredesign #uiuxdesign

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Simon Spavound retweetledi

@stianwestlake @WorksInProgMag Also this report / data is timely for this discussion! ons.gov.uk/economy/econom…
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@stianwestlake @WorksInProgMag If I can't get the metal for e.g. aircraft production, why would I acquire the advanced components in a different region (all other things remaining equal) - particularly as I imagine that the energy intense production components are also likely to be the most expensive to move
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An interesting question that I was discussing with the @WorksInProgMag folks on their podcast: to what extent are there spillovers from energy-intensive mftg to advanced mftg, such that rising energy costs damage mftg businesses for whom energy is a low %age of total costs?
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@Apple please add one time alarms to iOS so that my phone stops looking like this (you don't want to see what my morning looks like from early flights)

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Simon Spavound retweetledi

Does anyone have any good examples of use of stem and leaf diagrams? Or are they now archaic and should be removed from teaching? #stats #visualization
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This excellent post by @redblobgames is everything I did not think I needed to know about Hexagons: redblobgames.com/grids/hexagons/
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Thinking about the architecture that would be suited to solving the ARC-AGI challenge: it demonstrates the lack of reasoning capabilities of LLMs - I am more skeptical that this is the final test for "AGI" #LLM #AGI #AI
ARC Prize@arcprize
Can you solve it? Reply with the answer.
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Shout out to services that have added WhatsApp to MFA rather than texts - amazing for the times with no access to mobile service or when abroad. Banks/Finance companies should copy @PayPalUK and others
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