Small Cap Scientist 👨‍🔬🧪🥼

Ryan Cohen has been working on this deal for 12+ months. $GME zero coupon bonds, warrants, and the Cohen pay package all play defense from an $EBAY counteroffer to take over $GME. These zero coupon bonds and GameStop warrants will cause a massive $GME squeeze. Hang Tight

@youfadedwealth Disagree. Nearly every scenario $GME walks away as the winner. You are assuming the deal goes through as is, which is extremely extremely unlikely.

@SmallCapScience GME isn't gonna recover from this easily

Michael Burry sold $GME early again.. The mistake he is making is assuming that this $EBAY deal will be accepted at current terms, that won’t happen. GameStop and Ryan Cohen will easily walk away with a massive W in the end. This isn’t close to over.

They are a $11B company with $9B+ in cash, they aren’t going to $5. The likelyhood the deal happens is <10% and falls with $GME price, that means dilution isn’t coming. What’s more likely is $GME makes $500-1B off their $EBAY derivatives and walks away with a board seat at $EBAY. Let all the shorts pile in expecting dilution that isn’t going to happen, they will get rekt once the reflexivity starts above $32.

Sad part is they’ll probably be able to maintain current mcap

$5 sounds like a good target for $GME

@MichaelNuunes Let’s say EBay shuts down the deal. $GME still will walk away with $100s of millions or even billions of dollars from their gains on $EBAY derivatives. The most bullish scenario that I can see happening is a counter offer to buy $GME ($30+ per share) due to being undervalued.

@SmallCapScience You sure eBay even wants this?

$GME 📈 $EBAY 📈

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The more I look into the $GME deal... it's 100% possible. Ryan Cohen might be able to pull this off. If $GME price explodes above key levels they will be able to raise billions in cash, clear all their debt, and grow their market cap enough to make the buyout possible. Key Levels & Instruments: 1. $32 - GameStop Warrants ($GME.WS) 2. $38 - Convertible Notes (Zero Coupon) 3. $50 - Ryan Cohen Pay Package 1. 59.15M $GME October Warrants become exercisable above $32. If all warrants are exercised they raise $1.9B USD while share count grows from 448M > 510M, or $16.3B MC Dilution here isn't harmful. Warrant holders believe in the stock going higher and are willing to pay a premium to the current price in order to exercise. 2. Two tranches of zero coupon convertible notes were issued to buy $BTC. The convert and expiry is split between 2030 & 2032. These notes are economically in the money above $29-30, which is their convert. 2032 Notes convert: $28.91 2030 Notes convert: $29.85 Conversion is contingent on multiple specific stipulations (Note - this is extremely important later). Note holders can't convert to shares until $GME trades above 130% of the conversion price for 20 of 30 consecutive trading days in the prior quarter. Our trigger prices... 2032 Notes trigger: $37.58 2030 Notes trigger: $38.81 If we hold above $39 and these notes convert to shares, $4.2B in convertible debt is wiped from the balance sheet. Share count would grow 510M > 653M pushing the market cap of $GME to $25B+. $GME would be $25B with ~$11B cash on hand with zero debt... all the sudden buying $EBAY at $45B is possible. 3. Ryan Cohen's Historic $35B Pay Package will become official with a vote in June. The top milestones include $100B market cap and $10B EBITDA for $GME where he would vest 171.5M stock options @ $20.66 strike. Assuming $GME takes over $EBAY he could hit $50-70B market cap and ~$3B of EBITDA year one. If Ryan were to vest all of his shares before an ebay deal (very unlikely) it would add $3.54B in cash and bring the fully diluted share count to 825M ($41B+ MC). Now that you understand the instruments, let's take a step back to understand their plan. Why did they structure it this way...? In my opinion they are designing a squeeze on delta neutral bondholders. Bondholders are in a very unique spot. Once $GME is in the $32-$37 price range they are forced to add short positions to stay delta neutral even if they are below their trigger event. On issuance 65M-80M shares were shorted @ $22 by bondholders to go delta neutral on their positions. If GME is above $32, the $4.2B would need to short approximately 115M-125M total shares ($3.68B) in order to stay delta neutral. The shorts would need to 2x very quickly. Borrowing costs would skyrocket, available shares would disappear, and eventually bondholders will likely struggle to cover their positions as they tread water for 3+ months while their stipulations for exercise were satisfied. Here is where it gets interesting... in order for these books to stay delta neutral they arent just shorting the delta of $GME shares, they also need to short the delta of $GME warrants... which are massively deflationary as they are being exercised. In the $32-40 range for $GME they would be required to short 11-14M $GME+ Warrants of the 59M total available, its extremely reflexive. Quick reminder these bonds expire in 2030 & 2032, they could be forced to short with massive borrow rates for months or even years on both shares & warrants. $32+ warrants will vest, gamma will skyrocket, borrow fees jump on both assets, bondholders will rush to hedge delta, and eventually they run out of warrant supply to cover their positions. 14M of 59M Warrants are already held by Convertible Note holders today as a hedge, what happens if prices spike above $32 quickly? There wont be enough supply to hedge and the full squeeze begins. There are multiple angles here where $GME grows their market cap to $16-32B, grows their cash by billions, and can complete the takeover. As reported by WSJ, it's also extremely likely that they have already accumulated a stealth position in $EBAY. There is a decent chance $GME already owns ~3-5% of $EBAY through share and options purchases. I love the upside here... long $GME shares & warrants. Power to the Players! 🎮 (All Data and Probabilities for Thesis Were Built by Axion AI - axion.eternis.ai/invited/SCS)

@Globalflows @jaymesrosenthal Nothing screams I’m a terrible trader than making decisions based off your timeline.

When crude was at highs 2 days ago, @jaymesrosenthal talked through the short signals on the daily livestream we are doing

All the best traders I know have one thing in common... they are elite at bet sizing. Simple concept that most people ignore.

$GME 📈

$TPET has zero debt, 10+ years of runway, and shares are trading at a discount to their USD position. Oil can go negative tomorrow and it would still be undervalued... instead Oil is $100+.

@_pragmatik_ The main issue for $GTE has been their debt levels. Oil at $100+ and the debt worries go completely out the window for me though. It's a great long term buy below $10

@SmallCapScience thoughts?

Ok, $GTE what am I missing? Looking for feedback. Share price is sub $10. Compressed takeaway Quarterly FCF: ~$135M FCF/share (Q1): ~$3.95 Annualized FCF: ~$500M+ At this pricing level, the company is generating its entire market cap in FCF within ~1 year #EFT

$TPET @ $.50 Today. Shares are trading 10% below the USD on the balance sheet, each share is backed by $.56 of USD.

@kirbyongeo Thanks, we all appreciate you advertising @OstiumLabs.

I’ll just leave this here

Similar to what happened with Silver markets, we will see a massive wave of acquisitions across O&G Markets soon. Top oil producers are printing money while sitting on record amounts of cash, meanwhile exploration co’s sit at rock bottom valuations. These small MC plays will send once P2 proven reserves start to rerate higher through acquisitions.

@toshiXchain Check out DWARKWSH & DHAMPURSUG Two of my favorite set ups that could be big winners for the Sugar Trade. I’ll probably skip due to them being listed in India but researched them months ago.

@SmallCapScience I wish there was a person like you small cap science for the Indian market as most of US market stocks are still not accessible And I still have no clue about your research methods All I know is that you connect dots and do reasoning while connecting dots

$TPET - Trio Petroleum Corp O&G producer $TPET is undervalued and I've started accumulating a position. Key Points: - $17.5M MC ($.52 per share) - Zero Debt - $22M USD on Balance Sheet (Post ATM Raise) - ATM Raise <1M Shares Remaining to Sell - Each $TPET Share is Backed by $.56 of USD while Trading @ $.52 - 6M+ Shares (20%) of Float Shorted 👀 Their resources are massive but either need massive capital to scale (Utah Tar Sands) or have huge regulatory hurdles (California) Resources: - NPV10 of P2 Reserves @ $80 WTI is $500M - NPV10 of P3 Reserves @ $80 WTI is $2.54B Buying this based on the cash position alone and you are getting upside of billion dollar resources. The $19M ATM raise changed the entire outlook for $TPET by bolstering the balance sheet. Love the risk vs. reward at the current levels. Any good news or sustained upside for oil and the shorts will get squeezed here. Ideally this squeezes back to $1+, I'll sell half to completely derisk the positon. GL 📈

@investinguab Completely agree across the board sir.

The bears are everywhere, but their goalposts keep moving. The tragic reality? People will starve. Lives will be lost across the globe. And while that unfolds, armchair critics are firing off tweets from their mom’s basements, calling commodity traders dramatic. 10–13 million barrels per day. Gone. At what point does basic economics become impossible to ignore? This is the cost of willful ignorance. And the ones who will pay it most dearly never had a voice in the conversation to begin with. Pray for the world 🌎 #Brent #Crude

@nikitabier This is why my engagement is cooked and I can’t see anyone I follow?

The most snoozed (i.e., muted) topics since launching the snooze feature: 1. Crypto 2. Politics 3. Iran Conflict 4. Sports 5. Business & Finance 6. Gaming 7. Artificial Intelligence 8. Videos 9. Science & Technology 10. Entertainment & Arts