B.Smith

@nickgerli1 Also, lower prop tax, ins and other costs assoc with price. Great work Nick.

5) The reason price declines work so well on improving affordabililty is because they lower the total mortgage amount / debt a homebuyer needs to take out. Which lowers the monthly payment. And also reduces the upfront downpayment requirement.

When will homebuyers return to the U.S. Housing Market? When affordability hits the yellow line. Currently, the Mortgage Payment/Income Ratio is 36.5%, near the highest level on record, and comparable to the 2006 housing bubble. The long-term average is 30%, and it will take affordability crossing below that level for homebuyers to come back into the market. Until then, demand will remain low. And homebuyers will remain on strike.

@IDJoe4Idaho Drug dealers or Dispensaries.

“Currently, Idahoans spend an estimated $250 million annually in neighboring states and more through illicit channels. A regulated system would capture a significant portion of this activity, supporting local small businesses, agriculture, and in-state supply chains.” igniteit.com/news/idaho-med…

@taobanker ETF went OOB.

this looks like capitulation in $msos $gtbif but my concern is that the government ruined weed forever and it's over now

@HouseDemocrats You guys all spend to much money and the prices in LA haven't been $4 since 200 BC.

Average gas prices are nearly $4.00 per gallon. Blame Donald Trump.

@GuyTalksFinance Went up 40-100% but CAN'T come down 30-40%. Famous last words.

There’s only been one time that the housing market dropped down for 5 consecutive years. This was 2007 - 2012 caused by subprime mortgage loans. Something that will likely never happen again. Housing might drop occasionally but long term it’s almost guaranteed to go up.

@ONDCP @SaraCarterDC @CPAC Cannabis please, it's time now. x.com/TweeterReynold…

Director @SaraCarterDC at @CPAC : We’re keeping the supply chain clean and delivering effective, evidence-based treatment to save lives. No more poison — real solutions for addiction and recovery.

@SecKennedy @DrOzCMS Cannabis please.

At HHS, we reject the idea that our health system is too broken to fix. Today, @DrOzCMS and I are announcing a new Healthcare Advisory Committee—top experts from across the country coming together to provide insight on how to cut costs, reduce red tape, and put patients first. Real reform starts now.

@Solwoldjr74 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake Famous last words. Went up 40-80% but can’t come down 20–30%??? I do think for myself, not blindly agreeing with partial reporting. You should be buying hand over fist now then? You’ve been warned and are in the middle of the storm With sunglasses and a beach chair, oblivious.

So your thesis is: The numbers are fake and things are far worse than the data suggests. And your thesis is based on what? Cryptic tweets and strange charts by people who have been completely wrong for half a decade? C'mon Brian think for yourself, dig into the actual data and not the weird metrics that don't mean anything. there is a reason that housing hasn't crashed since 2020!

The fact that prices haven't tanked (yet?) makes me more certain that a huge part of the 2000s crash was having a system that rewarded fast foreclosures. Servicers didn't get paid when mortgages went delinquent, but they got all their back pay and a fee for foreclosing after they foreclosed, regardless of the sales price. So they tended to sell fast, and below market. And home prices tanked.

@learnaboutsam @GOPMajorityWhip Why does the US Govt own a cannabis patent?

It was great being on Capitol Hill, discussing with lawmakers from both parties the dangers of high-potency marijuana, the failures of legalization, and the pushback against these policies nationwide.

@Solwoldjr74 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake The #’s are not complete and govt # are revised months later. I knew a # would give me your response. X=y I wanted to bypass the # to show you the market has Turned and is now going the other way, down. Numbers<direction. Gradually then suddenly. GL.😊

FYI - total delinquencies are at 3.72%. Historically delinquencies are around 4%, so we are normalizing after years of forbearance. 4% of all mortgaged homes is about 3.5 million homes. Not sure how many are FHA, but this satisfies my curiosity! I don't see this as anything besides normalizing, but you may disagree. x.com/IMFpubs/status…

@Solwoldjr74 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake All good John. GL.

@SmithBrian8989 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake Can you please answer my questions or admit you don't know the answers? And AirBNB is not speculation, it is a business that generates a significant amount of cash flow if you are good at it. That I know! If you're at all interested I can teach you about it.

@Solwoldjr74 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake Holy shit John, I just saw that you are in TN. Good thing no one in 2020-24 speculated on ABNB or buy an investment property in that state? Talk about speculation? Everything is said X 5!😊

@SmithBrian8989 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake I asked you how many homes are FHA delinquent. You gave me a percentage and some crazy chart that has nothing to do with it. Do you know how many homes we are looking at that are FHA delinquent?

@Solwoldjr74 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake I can explain but can’t help you understand. You want a number what you don’t want is to admit is things have changed. You don’t even see where spec is the issue, or fail to acknowledge. Tried to help you see something, my fault.

@Solwoldjr74 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake Yes I did, we disagree? GL to you.

@SmithBrian8989 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake You didn't answer my question.

@Solwoldjr74 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake Re your first paragraph, see chart. FHA =@ 13% delinquency, AFTER 5 yrs of foreclosure moratorium. You can't feel the rain but that doesn't mean the storm isn't coming. Just curious as to who thinks res RE goes up 50-100% in 5 yrs but denies it could come down 30-40%?

@SmithBrian8989 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake Speculation was the catalyst in GFC & thats been the only housing crash in the past almost 100 years. Do you know how many FHA are in foreclosure? Year over year increase coming out of forbearance is ofc going to look scary but how many homes are we talking?

@Solwoldjr74 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake I don't think it helps and "speculation" seems the lowest common denominator I've witnessed prior to and during past corrections/crashes. FHA = subprime. x.com/m3_melody/stat…

@SmithBrian8989 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake Is it your thesis this will avalanche into something larger?

@Solwoldjr74 @rustydish2331 @JohnWake Have you considered FHA delinquencies were getting automatic loan mods and as of OCT, 25, they have to QUALIFY for the loan mod NOW and only get it if they are "approved.

If you want to start breaking out every individual MSA thats a different conversation. You can have over heated pockets w/o an over heated country. I mean that IS what has happened the past 4 years. Its apparent a nationwide price crash isn't in the cards because there is no forced selling because the loan products were much more responsible post QM.

@mikesimonsen Was it doom porn when it was going straight up and everyone said own now or never?

The Doom Porn class loves to cite Google searches as evidence that it’s now worse than 2008. It’s obviously not. I’ve never been able to correlate Google searches with any real world data. What are some alternate hypotheses about why this search data might look like this now?

@Elex_Michaelson @PeterSGreenberg ICE stands for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Travel journalist @PeterSGreenberg says it's not really clear what exactly ICE agents are doing at airports, as they're not trained to do TSA's most important jobs. Greenberg says the wait has been so bad in Houston, they've had to hold planes on the tarmac for over an hour.

@DSPetolicchio x.com/AMartinelliWA/…

Weed is stupid and it makes you stupid. You can't change my mind.