Smittee retweetledi
On Aliens, Survivor, and The Bachelorette (so far).
TL;DR: Just because someone has a large position in a market or traders follow rumors online does not mean they’re insider trading. Aliens, Survivor, and Bachelorette markets - we’re investigating all of them, and so far, we have not found compelling evidence of insider trading or market manipulation. However, these markets are not closed, and our monitoring and analysis continues.
Aliens
A few weeks ago The Atlantic posted an article titled "This Looks Like an Insider Bet on Aliens." The story focused on trades by a user who is wagering that by the end of the year, the U.S. government will confirm aliens exist. According to The Atlantic, due to the size of the trades it might be someone with "insider knowledge."
But we investigated this position, including document requests and an interview with the trader. (He gave us permission to make this post). There is no evidence the trader has insider information. He's tired of trading stocks; he doesn't feel they are accurately priced. While looking for markets he felt he had an edge on, he found Kalshi's alien market. He developed a researched thesis for why the U.S. government might be on the verge of confirming alien existence (including recent document releases, new comments by President Obama, President Trump's response to those comments, etc.) and felt the position was underpriced. He doesn’t know whether the government will confirm anything or not, but based on public information and research, he considers his position a good one.
Survivor and The Bachelorette
Pre-taped shows mean that people have knowledge of what happens before the show airs - including contestants and production staff. But they typically sign legal documents preventing them from telling people - otherwise, shows would constantly be spoiled for everybody. Using that information for profit is not allowed.
This week there was a New York Times article titled “People Are Making Money Betting on Pretaped ‘Survivor’ Episodes” that suggested insider trading is happening with our Survivor markets. We’ve investigated and, so far, have not found definitive evidence of that. We’ve been checking backgrounds of traders in this market and have not identified anyone with any connection to Survivor. After reviewing the trading activity, it appears the likeliest explanation is that traders are following public rumors, following other traders who placed trades in the opening hours of the market, or just trading based on research and conviction.
Same scenario for The Bachelorette, and same conclusion thus far. It seems that Reality Steve’s site posts spoilers that tend to be right. People can look at those predictions, then place trades on prediction markets. That’s not insider trading.
Still, we are continuing to monitor these markets and analyze trading patterns, and we will take action if we find anything anomalous.
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