SoCal Weather Watcher

@jsguofo @BrunelShawn 2015-16 wasn’t as warm in the Eastern Niño regions as previous strong El Niños. Most of the warmth was farther West than the more classic/wet Eastern-based events like 1982-83 & 1997-98.

@SoCalWXwatcher @BrunelShawn I think the 2015/2016 didn't have the warmer waters at greater depths and not full basin.

One of the necessary ingredients to brew up a strong El Niño in the coming 2026-27 season is being added to the kettle. Will be paying more attention to the potential El Niño setup once we're past the Spring "Predictability Barrier".

@jenencinitas There are hints of that. It’s a little too early to start talking about that just yet. Should have a better handle on it next week.

@SoCalWXwatcher Rain?

The West Coast Ridge will weaken somewhat next week and temperatures across #SoCal, although still above average, won't be quite as hot as they've been this week. There are increasing signs for a Trough developing across the West around the end of the month into early April, which would bring a cool-down & potentially unsettled weather to the region. #CAwx

Yet another day of records tied and broke! Temperatures will cool some, but remain above normal through the weekend. Followed by another jump in temperatures early next week with potential for heat advisories. #cawx

@realwxforecast @BrunelShawn Yep. Definitely needs to be East-based El Niño, not a 2015 redux.

@SoCalWXwatcher @BrunelShawn We need ENSO Region 3.4 to pretty warm to get the EAJ STJ going!!! That is the key!

@realwxforecast There will be more onshore flow next week which will cut into the high temps a tad. Not that temps in the 90's is that big of a relief from temps in the 100's. Still hot.

@SoCalWXwatcher Heat, looks to be reloading, per the Euro ens AI models next week.

@BrunelShawn Hopefully closer to that one and not the 2015-2016 "Super" El Niño that didn't deliver.

@SoCalWXwatcher I'm thinking this one could be similar to the 1982-1983 event.

Be ready for today's heat continuing through the rest of the work week - with little day-to-day changes especially inland of the beaches. Some relief is expected into early next week. #cawx

A very strong Ridge will dominate #SoCal weather for the next several days, with its strongest impact felt this week with unseasonably hot temperatures across the region. Although it will begin to moderate in strength this weekend, it will continue to keep SoCal warm and dry through next week as well. #CAwx

Summer in March - Many locations across #SoCal will experience triple-digit daytime high temperatures this this week. Deserts and Inland Valleys will likely break above 100° with even some locations along the Coastal Plain reaching 100° by Thursday/Friday. The only relief will be at the immediate Coast or higher elevations of the Mountains with temps in the 80's. #CAwx #SoCalHeat

@realwxforecast I hadn't seen that. I do think we'll get some more rain before the season is over, but I don't see any strong signals for any wet patterns setting up anytime soon.

@SoCalWXwatcher It's okay some people are talking about an AR and a couple weeks for #socal

Here we go again.

Enjoy the seasonable temps while you can because the heat returns with a vengeance later this week. Daily record highs are expected for several locations from Thursday onward! Well above normal temps will likely last through the weekend and beyond.

Lots of buzz online about an upcoming major March heatwave for the American SW & California. And in this case, it does indeed appear increasingly likely than an extremely anomalous and even record-breaking heatwave may envelop much of the SW about a week from now.

@TheRideshareGuy Looks like it goes on through Saturday PM.

@SoCalWXwatcher when does the wind end tomorrow morning?

Our Next Santa Ana wind event will be in full swing across #SoCal by tomorrow morning for the usual areas. Another warmup over the weekend as Temperatures get up into the 80's along Coast/Valley Locations. Our dry weather pattern expected to continue for at least another 10 days. #CAwx

Whew. All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event. I'll have more to say in coming weeks & months, but for now I'll just say that this is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-2027.