Special Situation

@christankerfund @mercoglianos What happens to day rates if Iran somehow closes the strait of Hormuz? What if Iranian export capacity effectively drops to 0 for a few years?

Tankers being hit hard … down 4-5%. $HAFN out performing $FRO $NAT $TEN $TRMD $BWET $STNG $TNK $DHT $INSW $ASC $ECO $HAFNI

@twallyweb @Vinny_Daniel0 …medical offices

@Vinny_Daniel0 I’m gonna start a fund called “American Fatso Fund I LP” Gas stations Drive thrus Self storage Consumer credit

Coming (relatively) soon. New retail development. LOIs with credit tenants in hand.

@bairdk WTF is wrong with you!?

@CliffordAsness There’s so much uncertainty, both economic and geopolitical, that firms and consumers are deferring investments while they wait to see what’s next. The fear is real and feeds a vicious cycle.

Many seem to defend tariffs with the line of reasoning “the world is not coming to an end you’re being hysterical.” Let’s be clear. That’s true (not the hysteria part). The US economy, companies, and citizens are resilient and will adapt. It’ll just be worse. The job is to make it better. And instead it will be worse.

@shawngorham @BowTiedBroke Sounds like a moat. Also you can’t really defer spending on termites and cockroaches.

@BowTiedBroke In CA that is SUCH a HARD license to get. SO hard.

Cheer me up - Who has a business crushing it right now? My little bubble of earth is doom and gloom. Real Estate is frozen, little to no transaction volume. Anything real estate adjacent is suffering, mortgages, escrow, title, etc. Roofer: We have been doing 6-8 jobs a week for 5 years, since Jan we average 1 per week. Material supplies, prices up, deliveries down. The delivery boards are empty, same day delivery easy. Yesterday I had a plumbing service call one hour after the call. 15 van company, worker said its been very slow. A friend runs a wet/dry utility underground for new construction, laying off workers. Industrial leases/ MF leasing is lowering rates and taking longer to lease up. Every friend/industry I know right now in my area is down big time. I can go down the list. I talk to a lot of people every single day. I lived through 2009 - I worked through it. Everyone keeps saying this isnt 09 - but if the cash keep leaving the market, people stop spending, jobs become insecure... well... I dont want to be a doomer. SO - turn me to a gloomer Who is crushing it right now? What industries are booming? Where is the puck moving? Who moved the cheese? (great book)

@d0tslash Chemistry is one of those things that require a firm understanding of arithmetic. LLMs are not so good at that. That makes “Chem AI” an articulate incompetent armed with hydrofluoric acid.

ChemGPT anyone?

@yeticapital99 It’s not just small businesses either, Schultz, Dell, etc had to come out of retirement when their management teams dropped the ball. The only truly passive investment is a broad market index fund.

@CovertShores The best way to learn about a complicated topic is to post a quick take online. Several actual subject matter experts will feel compelled to post 500 word rebuttals. A lively discussion will follow where they express things they wouldn’t at work.

@CliffordAsness Also I doubt she has anything resembling a pragmatic plan. Most candidates don’t. The only ones in the last century were probably FDR, LBJ, Reagan & Hillary. Everyone else was all vibes & pipe dreams.

@CliffordAsness So worst case scenario she proposes a higher tax on capital gains which congress won’t pass. What happens if the other guy wins? Remember jan6? Also who will be one obese 78 year old’s heartbeat away from the presidency? Which is worse?

The idea that she’s more pro-business (and further towards the center as he says elsewhere) than Biden, despite her lifelong track record of the opposite, because she’s campaigning that way for a month, is ridiculous on its face. It’s ok to like the pre-campaign Harris positions and believe in the policies of the far left. It’s not ok to lie and carry water for lies.

@datarade “We should do X” is more useful than “we should not do Y”. If you want to reduce vol in the ME you need to restore the Ottoman Empire but I don’t think they want to.

Soleimani, Saddam, Gaddafi, Anwar Sadat, Yitzhak Rabin, Abdullah Bin Hussein, Hosni Mubarak, Osama Bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, and Hajji Abdullah. Did their deaths lead to a less volatile Middle East in the long term?

@codyschneider Can you define “VC related”? Is it VCs, service providers to VCs, portfolio companies?

ive had more vc related companies ask me about youtube in the last 30 days than in the prior 12 months its a trend build a business for these people and sell to them

@MomAngtrades Do you honestly believe Trump, 78, can make it ~5 years to the end of his term when he will be 83 without the cognitive decline that affected Biden (81) or Mitch McConnell (82)?

@SpecialSit I never cared about Trumps age. I always cared about Biden’s cognitive decline.

Now all of a sudden age matters to the Democrats, lol.

@CliffordAsness The orange god is a jealous god. He will tear this guy down if he continues getting so much positive publicity. 🍿

If the “center” is extreme social conservatism coupled with left wing economics then he’s totally right. He’s also defining himself as the center.

@yeticapital99 The Chinese shadow debt thesis has been around for at least 15 years…but their central bank is pretty good at managing the little financial crises that pop up periodically. Construction will have to slow down at some point, probably abruptly, but I’d bet on any other catalyst

There will be a pile of money made shorting #commodities when this mess hits the fan, it’s inevitable

@sulligraph @SMBGrowthGuy I remember ordering furniture like this in the 90s. Took 8-12 weeks to make and ship, was 5x IKEA prices at the time, made in USA of quality wood. Unfortunately it was designed by fools so it was utter s***. Many such cases.

you used to go into a furniture store, find the product you liked, pick a few options and 6 weeks later you’d have your couch, table, or bedroom set. It was built to order. When you order online, you’re expected to get it in the time it takes to ship. Just like a shirt or pair of shoes. Furniture was forced to move to “ready to ship” status to compete. Meaning, for any given option, it had to be in a box, on a shelf, ready to go. Home furnishings now have 2 problems. 1. It must be easy to ship (meaning user assembles) 2. It must be ready to ship (only popular/vanilla options) The first forces it to transport in puzzle pieces, but the second requires the manufacturer to anticipate all permutations of selection ahead of time, with the ability to reorder when stocks get low. “Safety stock” cares about how many I’ll sell at peak when I place my order for more to be made of that option. Even if it’s only 10 items, when I give up on that SKU, it’s an awful waste if it’s “quality shit”. There’s $Billions in waste. I even heard an executive at overstock suggested pushing perfectly good products through oversized wood chippers because it’s a more efficient way to get rid of unsold product and “preference based returns” It’s sad really. Even if you go into a furniture store. People don’t understand value. Only price. So the cheap online shit wins locally too. Quality loses in ignorant market places when it comes to price competition. Cheers @IKEA 🍻

I’m DONE with furniture from Amazon. (And possibly everywhere online.)

@TrentTelenko The ESG people had cash to burn for a while & also needed to quantify pollution throughout a product’s life so they funded grants resulting in a bloom in the literature. Perhaps it will aid future generations, but there will always be more $ in willful ignorance.

@TrentTelenko It’s not just the Keynesians, but most economists who treat pollution this way. It’s a “negative externality” deemed too difficult to quantify, and thus safe to ignore. But there’s papers to be written in quantification of previously unquantified things 1/

The use of crippled/wounded Russian men as soldiers is not the only or even the most important indicator that Russia has hit the mobilization wall⬇️ Nor are female prisoners, foreign mercs or DPRK soldiers. Russia is now deploying Hitlerjugend-esque child-soldiers. Wall🧵 1/

I keep thinking about the Californian investment banker who said to me: 'Presenting renewable energy as low-carbon and climate friendly is mostly the wrong story. Yes, of course, they are. But you should focus on the argument of low-cost energy instead. Whenever energy can be produced at much lower cost than ever before, economies go through growth cycles. Focus on the shocking cost differential between renewables and fossils, and a whole new set of people will listen'