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*BREAKING MARKET ANALYSIS #KC: World #Coffee Prices To Hit 10-Year Bull Cycle as Brazil Disaster Continues to Worsen, Making it IMPOSSIBLE for the Global Supply Chain to recover until 2030 earliest !!
*Aug. 18, 2025 (SpillingTheBeans)--Those in the global #coffee trade who believe arabica prices soon will come down are in for a bitter surprise as the reality of the last 5 years unprecedented weather disasters and crop losses in near all the coffee producing countries across the world is starting to show in cold facts and hard figures, starting with the DISASTER arabica crop in Brazil’s 2025 harvest now coming to an end and CONFIRMING what @SpillingTheBean as the ONLY #KC analyst in the world said would happen, with average production losses in most regions running at about 30 percent, and consensus rapidly growing across the #KC industry in Brazil that the total 2025 harvest will end at max 47M-48M bags.
Current Arabica #coffee prices at a little over $3.40 may even be considered to be at some of the lowest and cheapest levels the world will see for a very long time as #coffee is set to enter what potentially will be a 10-year long BULL CYCLE for the commodity. Coffee prices are set to go much higher and reach for new historic highs, first going back over $4/lb and then headed toward the $5-$6 mark latest between 4Q-2025 and 1Q-2026 because there is simply not enough coffee to go around the market for the next many years to come to satisfy the consumption levels with which the world has grown accustomed. And as the arabica coffee fields in the world’s largest grower Brazil in recent weeks have been hit with additional frost damage for the 3rd time since the Big Frost in July 2021 and weather induced stress from the last 6-8 weeks of RECORD-BREAKING INTENSE COLD in addition to several frost waves and widespread hailstorms the upcoming 2026 flowering is doomed. The Aug 10-11 frost damage this year is all but a death blow to Brazil’s 2026 crop potential, because even if the physical damage to trees and farms were less than in 2021, the STRESS-IMPACT on the trees may end up being MUCH MORE severe because the entire arabica coffee park in Brazil is in a sharply weakened state which per BASIC core coffee agronomy simply does not allow for regular flowering and crop deveopment.
Even if this is not visible to the ordinary observer, even long BEFORE the most recent frost damage the presence of the "stress flowering" phenomenon had caused IRREVERSIBLE losses to the 2026 flowering potential causing the STARTING crop potential (pending how much of the remainder 2026 flowering will materialize into fruit) being reduced to a max crop of 54M-58M in Brazil and the latest frost is already provoking NEW and EARLY stress flowering across Southern Minas and Sao Paulo coffee regions from which the majority of the flowers will go toward producing new LEAVES rather than fruit. The curious notion from many in the #KC trade that current Arabica and Robusta #coffee prices are “very high” or “too expensive” is laughable at best. The fact is that coffee has been MUCH too cheap for MUCH too long, specifically most of the past 25 years and going forward Arabica coffee prices will for most of the next 3-5 years and possibly all the 10 years until 2035 stay in a min range of $3-$4/lb. Sure, there will always be periods with corrections and profit taking testing lower, but it’s unlikely that such periods will go much below a 260-280 range and IF these lower levels happen it will not be for long – the market and commercials especially are WELL AWARE that not only are supplies tight, they are not going to recover to levels of comfort until earliest 2030. Any significant recovery will not come until 2028-2030 earliest and it will be no-where NEAR the levels of consumption needs as global demand continues to be BOOMING and consumption continues to expand at min 3M bags a year. This supply bonanza continues even as the current MASSIVE crop losses both in Brazil and the rest of the world continue to be confirmed in continuously bigger numbers resulting in an even bigger SUPPLY DEFICIT for the entire world of coffee.
The current rally is similarly no-where near high enough to support the fabled illusion in #KC that the cure for high prices are high prices, a saying which a number of people in the global #coffee market always have loved to cite, because this time around the COFFEE IS NOT THERE and the market will be running on a deficit for at least 2-3 years more, and even WHEN at least a good part of the global coffee supply chain recover - I phrase it like that because most likely a good part of the current production chain will NEVER actually recover from the current weather issues and we have seen this entire last year that even at $4.50 thousands of both #arabica and #robusta growers chose to ABANDON their land or try to sell it or convert it into other crops that are less climate and labor prone - so even IF and/or WHEN a part or the global supply chain MAY recover by 2028-2030 earliest, the Pro-bear camp will still have to RE-BUILD GLOBAL STOCKS by at least 6M-8M-10M bags before ANY DROP in prices can be justified and such a surplus is likely NOT going to happen until 2032-2035 which is why for the next min 2-3-5 years #KC will mostly stay in a min prices range of $3-$4/lb and Arabica AND also Robusta prices are potentially be headed for a 10-year BULL CYCLE - Come spring 2026 and the market will mostly be living from one harvest to the next so enjoy the #coffee while you can my friends, because the World IS Running out of Coffee !!
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