Sprowryn

Just published my first article for begginers in crypto @sprowsjournal/are-you-a-crypto-beginner-d1a74ec12b13" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@sprowsjournal… #btc #bitcoin

If Kamala wins, you are 3 days away from the start of a 1929-style economic depression. If I win, you are 3 days away from the best jobs, the biggest paychecks, and the brightest economic future the world has ever seen. Kamala’s inflation nightmare has cost the typical American family $30,000 dollars in higher prices—and now, she wants to impose the largest tax hike in American history, and raise your taxes by $3,000 dollars a year. I will massively cut taxes for workers and small businesses—and we will have NO TAX ON TIPS, NO TAX ON OVERTIME, and NO TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY benefits!

Highly recommend listening to Stan Druckenmiller's latest interview with Morgan Stanley. Some of my favourite thoughts: - Contrarianism is overrated. The crowd is right 80% of the time - just don't get caught in the other 20% - Your edge isn't being right, it's sizing when you're right and cutting when you're wrong. Soros playbook. - You don't need to understand everything. He couldn't spell Nvidia. He trusted people smarter than him on the details, then made the call - Volatility isn't the enemy. It's your entry point if you have conviction - TA and price/news signals worked until everyone learned them. Edge dies when it becomes consensus - Courage (Balls) matters more than wisdom. He's smarter now than in his 30s and was a better PM then. He had more nerve - Scars don't go away - and they shouldn't. But mistakes are a moment in time. Get over it and move on - Growth investors didn't want Teva, value investors didn't want it either. That's exactly where the opportunity was - stocks stuck in no man's land between investor bases - Where the smartest young people are going is a leading indicator. He tracked Stanford kids shifting from crypto to AI before the trade was obvious - Knowing when something is big doesn't mean you'll hold it perfectly. He sold Nvidia at 800, it went to 1400. Even with the right thesis you'll still screw up the execution - Pattern recognition compounds over decades. There's no silver bullet, just 40 years of seeing things before

Reminder that historically the S&P 500 displays a consistent buy the news pattern during military conflicts, with an initial gap down when war begins, bottoming within 0-5 trading days, and recovering in full witin 1-14 days. In 2022 for example, markets bottomed 4 hours after Russia invaded. The Sunday futures open will likely be nasty though.

Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly-not skilled!

This is a great article/thought exercise on what the potential future state of the world looks like under this paradigm AI shift We, like everyone else are still trying to get our heads around it all and formulate a mental and investment framework that captures the macro regime that we will be in over the coming few years - frustratingly, haven’t had the complete “stars align moment” where we’ve “Connected the Dots” and can clearly see the trade/investment thesis We had that post 2008 when we understood we were in a regime dominated by rates and liquidity - fundamentals no longer mattered The need for ever larger central bank balance sheets, requiring ever more liquidity to be pumped into the system was an unavoidable consequence of the actions taken to avoid the complete collapse of the financial system Fiat currency was the escape valve, currency debasement trades the play Bitcoin came along and fit nicely into that world We still don’t think much has changed in that regard Central banks currently act with very little nuance or flair If unemployment due to AI displaced labour rises, they will slash rates to zero and do QE, even though that has little impact on a structural unemployment issue Likewise for the deflationary impacts of AI which is not resulting from demand deficiency This deflationary backdrop seems completely underpriced by market at this stage (especially relative to how market has whacked Software stocks in anticipation of the impact of AI) Long duration looks like an obvious play (deflationary impacts will outweigh likely higher debt impact on bonds) Obviously, Bitcoin as the longest duration asset with no cash flows should benefit hugely in that regime (right now just chopping in line with broader risk uncertainty and tethered to Software stocks) As AI removes the rent-extracting middle men, it feels increasingly obvious that decentralised crypto rails are a complement to this new world Especially with the proliferation of stablecoins as the main payment and settlement method ETH a beneficiary alongside other well established L1’s with network effects Feels hard to want to own any bank stocks in this environment if duration rallies hard and rent-extracting middle men are getting nuked One thing for sure, Trump tariffs feel quite unimportant at this is juncture As for @RaoulGMI “5 years to un-fck” your future, it feels like the timeline on that likely been reduced We’re still marinading ideas here though 🤔

I've been through three cycles. I've seen Bitcoin plunge 50% in 24 hours. I've see it at $3K when exchanges completely turned off. I've seen dozens of hacks and frauds, including the Madoff level fraud that was FTX. All this time, I was never concerned about Bitcoin's future. In those dark moments I was excited about the value opportunities. Today, I am more concerned than ever before about Bitcoin's future. The Bitcoin Core team is fighting the last war. Like deploying horses against machine guns in WW1. Or trenches against Blitzkrieg in WW2. Horses and trenches are Bitcoin's current cryptography. Machine guns and Blitzkrieg are Quantum, and Bitcoin today does not stand a chance. It must adapt and upgrade. The severity of the Quantum threat and the mind-blowing level at which it is being dismissed is troubling.

“Dude I have 10 agents running while I sleep. No one is prepared for AGI in 2 years man.” “So what are you building?” “Bro all my smartest friends are vibe coding until 3am every night. It’s all about agency. Intelligence is a commodity man.” “So what are you building?” “Do you even study exponentials? Have you seen the latest METR chart? You’re going to be stuck in the permanent underclass bro.” “So what are you building?” “Did you even setup OpenClaw? I’m maxing out my token budget everyday man.” “So what are you building?” “I promise you I’m 10x more productive bro! You just don’t understand! Please bro just…. I know you use this stuff everyday too, but you must not be prompting it right! Please broo…”

Na burze nevyhrává ten, kdo má pravdu. Vyhrává ten, kdo lépe pracuje s pravděpodobností. Většina lidí přemýšlí binárně. Akcie je dobrá nebo špatná? Půjde nahoru nebo půjde dolů? Válka bude / nebude? Volby vyhraje Trump nebo Kamala? Realita takhle nefunguje. Každý obchod je sázka s určitým očekávaným výnosem. Pokud mám edge, je to jen malý posun pravděpodobnosti v můj prospěch. Ne 100%, ale možná 53 proti 47. Neznám budoucnost, ale jsem o malinko přesnější než průměr (trh). To stačí k masivnímu úspěchu, pokud jsem schopen to konzistentně opakovat. Neexistuje jistota. Každá investice je jen sázka na distribuci různých výsledků, které mají různé pravděpodobnosti. A aby to nebylo moc snadné, hrajeme hru s neúplnými informacemi a pravděpodobnosti se neustále mění s nově příchozími daty. Proto na základě výsledku není možné zpětně vyhodnotit, zda bylo rozhodnutí správné nebo chybné. Prostě se jen realizoval jeden z možných scénářů, ale my nevíme, jakou měl pravděpodobnost. Kdo si zvykne přemýšlet v pravděpodobnostech, získá na trhu (i v životě) výhodu. Většina lidí to neumí.

circle minted $750m usdc on solana in 48 hours this week. 70% of sol supply locked in staking. shorts paying daily for 17 days to stay positioned against a chain generating $245m monthly revenue. the math for forced covering gets worse every day they hold

😶‍🌫️🔴Leden 2026 shrnuto: → BTC z 93k na 70k (-25 %) → BTC ETF odlivy: -1,61 mld. USD → Fear & Greed na 16 (Extreme Fear) → Likvidita v systému stagnuje, FED drží sazby na 3,5 % Co za tím stojí a co sledovat v únoru? Nový měsíční přehled 👇 open.substack.com/pub/cryptocafe…

If you ever feel cynical about crypto and it's future, watch this video He literally explains why crypto matters and why we're all here:

Bitcoin připsal 600% za 2 roky a nyní už rok konsoliduje kolem psychologické hranice 100 000$. Spousta lidí věří na pokračování čtyřletého cyklu, kdy Bitcoin historicky tvořil vrcholy přesně po 4 letech (koncem roku 2013, 2017 a 2021). Nyní jsme přesně 4 roky od posledního vrcholu. Podle mě to přestane fungovat, stejně jako přestal fungovat stock to flow model. Lidi se vždycky na něco upnou, ale tyhle “pomůcky” nikdy nebudou fungovat moc dlouho, trh není tak snadno předvídatelný. Trh je živý organismus a neustále se vyvíjí. Kdo věří na 4 letý cyklus tak teď samozřejmě prodává. Navíc kolem 100 tisíc usd je obrovské množství OG prodejců, kteří nakupovali Bitcoin třeba za 1 dolar a dneska jsou miliardáři. Pamatujete jak si ve 2021 všichni dávali laser eyes? Všichni čekali na 100 tisíc. Už tam skoro byli a pak se museli koukat, jak jim to celé spadlo až na 16 tisíc. Nechtějí tu bolest prožít znovu. Tyhle prodejce trh absorbuje už více než rok. Pokud se podaří všechny jejich coiny přesunout k novým držitelům, trh může letět nahoru velmi rychle. Čím delší konsolidace, tím lépe, protože již bude méně potenciálních prodejců na vyšší ceně. Jsme v nejsilnějším pro-krypto prostředí v historii. Vláda USA uvolňuje restrikce, tvoří strategickou rezervu a podporuje krypto jak může. Dosavadní regulatorní nejistota patřila k hlavním brzdám velkých institucí, které se nyní předhání v implementaci. Do toho klesají úrokové sazby, končí QT a fiskál pumpuje peníze do oběhu. Obecně dobré prostředí pro riziková aktiva.

1/ There's a concept known as financial compounding, but most people don't know about intellectual compounding. Buffett and Munger employed this to great effect and to accumulate mental models such that they can make large decisions quickly. Intuition is simply reading a lot.

Crypto is culturally in a gutter - in 2017 and 2021 there was bright "sky is the limit" optimism about what crypto and DeFi can bring, breakthroughs in open finance, new frontier of art and culture on NFTs, privacy ZK tech, DAOs and governance ushering the cypherpunk and radical market visions - we were unironically expecting to change the world on so many fronts and there was nowhere else more exciting than crypto even with all the grifts and downs Post 2022 this was mostly shattered as delivery of all of these dreams was very underwhelming, the last remnants of crypto as a counter culture was not privacy and freedom anymore but just edgelord teenage memes with a token, attempts to coopt the AI excitement with agent tokens and on the finance front best we could muster is ETFs, DATs, tokenised dollars and funds that act like tokenised dollars, and banks using chains as infra for their payments OG Bitcoiners are either selling to Saylor's and Blackrocks bid to ride into the sunset or praying to Saylor and following his every move like his Satoshi reincarnate While next door we have civilisation scale megaprojects building silicon temples to awaken our new machine gods that will bring utopia (or dystopia - depends who you ask) - hard to compete with that Maybe, just maybe we will see crypto culture pendulum swinging back, Zcash could be first sign of that if its not just another orchestrated narrative push (it holds quite well in this market so hopefully this time is different) But in any case, sky is the limit era is gone, now we are in "show me the numbers" era, in many cases numbers don't look so good compared how many more tokens are going to be launched and unlocked and hit the markets At least we got stuff that can show real, impactful and substantial value capture such as Hyperliquid so there is a way forward for on-chain first businesses Talking about businesses I expect the business layer to capture most of the value in the growth adoption phase, much easier to make the case for CRCL, HOOD, COIN at these valuations than vast majority of tokens Rant over

$VIRTUAL is one of the few crypto projects that is doing legitimate things in the robotics sector They are coinvested with us on Robotics deals, building a large open source robot training data collection system and developing a commerce protocol for an autonomous machine economy

Hello Wall St.

Remember this: The pain is all in your head. If you want to evolve, you need to go where the problems and the pain are. By confronting the pain, you will see more clearly the paradoxes and problems you face. Reflecting on them and resolving them will give you wisdom. The harder the pain and the challenge, the better. Because these moments of pain are so important, you shouldn't rush through them. Stay in them and explore them so you can build a foundation for improvement. Embracing your failures--and confronting the pain they cause you and others--is the first step toward genuine improvement; it is why confession precedes forgiveness in many societies. Psychologists call this "hitting bottom." #principleoftheday

The main issue with crypto (generally anything with extremely asymmetric payoffs, pro sports, youtubing/vlogging, venture capital, etc) is that its almost always heavily frontloaded effort. This is in stark contrast compared to what "regular" people do (I can't even say normies, that's literally a normie word now) - do work, get paid, rinse and repeat. The mind of someone trapped (vid related) in that lifestyle cannot comprehend that there's an entirely different lifestyle possible. And even if they could comprehend it, they have prior commitments - bank debt, family that needs taking care of whether very old or very young, and do not have time to get into something new. Why don't they just quit? Because they cannot service pre-existing commitments and if they were to suddenly drop all work that pays them once or twice a month they would not make it past 3 months. It's also why they fall for gurus/courses on instagram/tiktok, the death grip of a person giving a dream of escaping the cage "one last shot". Once they fail and become resigned to their fate, they resent anyone who's their mutual friend from before that managed to escape. It's the ultimate Catch22 of our time and the reconciliation of these two sides is almost near impossible. The eternal wagie takes offense to you telling him to grind hard and sleep less because he's too deep down the other side of the spectrum - do this for long enough and the feeling of having to turn up for work every day becomes almost like a parasite that you cannot get rid of. It's not a matter of showing up and doing the steps that are needed - it's a matter of mindset, and we all know how hard it can be to change our minds on things as we grow older. It doesn't matter how hard you try to get the wageworm out of your body, a part of it will always linger and stay in you, regenerating and multiplying, with each season passing, and until its reached the saturation point of "good enough" where your dreams and hopes are not crushed by other people but by yourself. I count and bless every single dollar that has ever reached my wallets and bank accounts when I see a video like this, because I know way too many people who are doomed to a lifestyle that should not be called worthy of a human.