Squid Traders

FUTURES PAUSE AFTER RALLY US stock futures dip as Iran war uncertainty lingers: • S&P, Dow, Nasdaq futures -0.1% • Oil rebounds , $WTI > $90, Brent > $101 What’s happening: • Optimism from “talks” fading • Iran denies negotiations • Conflict still active What to watch: • US manufacturing data • Late earnings (GME) Markets caught between relief rallies and war risk.

TALKS CLAIMED , STRIKES CONTINUE Mixed signals from the Middle East: • Trump says negotiations are underway • Iran launches missiles & drones at Israel and US bases • Saudi, Kuwait, Bahrain report interceptions/damage On the ground: • Energy infrastructure hit in Iran • Regional tensions remain elevated Diplomacy headlines vs active conflict. Markets stuck between hope and escalation.

OIL CLIMBS AGAIN ON ESCALATION RISK Crude rebounds after sharp drop: • Brent near $104 | WTI +4% • Still +40% this month • Volatility remains extreme What’s driving it: • Risk of Gulf states joining the war • Hormuz disruption limiting supply • Iran signals no quick resolution Spillover: • Fuel prices rising globally • Supply chain stress building • Demand destruction risk ahead Oil market , pure geopolitical trade right now.

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WEEK AHEAD: WAR, RATES, AI Markets enter the week under pressure: • 3+ weeks of war , oil > $100 • S&P 500 & Dow down 5%+ YTD • Nasdaq down 7% YTD What to watch: • Inflation expectations (Michigan data) • Fed outlook after hawkish shift • Industrial activity readings • Light earnings (JEF, CCL) Big theme: • Oil shock , inflation risk , tighter policy • AI moves into “show me” phase Markets facing macro and narrative reset.

GLOBAL SELL-OFF AS WAR RISK RISES Stocks, bonds, and gold all falling as US–Iran tensions escalate: • Asian stocks nearing correction • Bonds selling off , yields rising • Gold down for 9 straight days • Brent $113 (still elevated) What’s driving it: • 48-hour Hormuz ultimatum + retaliation threats • Inflation fears and growth slowdown risks • Rate cut expectations fading Markets repricing for higher rates and prolonged conflict.

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TRUMP VS POWELL , BACKFIRE? Efforts to remove Fed Chair Powell may keep him in place longer: • Powell won’t step down amid ongoing DOJ probe • Could stay as chair pro tem if successor delayed • Warsh nomination facing Senate roadblocks What’s happening: • Legal battle slowing the transition • Political pressure clashing with Fed independence Attempt to force change , risks prolonging the status quo. Fed uncertainty just increased.

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TAX REFUNDS RISING , BUT BELOW PROMISES US tax refunds are up, but not hitting expectations: • Avg refund: $3,623 (+11% YoY) • Increase $350, below the promised $1,000 • Nearly half of returns already filed Context: • New tax cuts (tips, overtime, SALT, etc.) • Refunds may shift as season progresses Reality: • $1,000 boost looks unlikely • Estimates point closer to $500–$750 Expectations vs reality gap remains.

US MOVES TO COOL OIL PRICES Washington allows sale of Iranian oil already at sea to ease supply crunch. Key points: • Short-term license valid until April 19 • Up to 140M barrels could enter markets • Targets relief from war-driven price spike Context: • Hormuz disruption , 20% of global flows at risk • Brent up 50% this month Reality: • Limited impact , logistics and sanctions still restrict flows • More about stabilizing sentiment than fixing supply Short-term pressure valve, not a solution.

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GULF STRIKES CONTINUE , MARKETS ON EDGE The war nears week 3, with no clear de-escalation: * Israel signals pause on energy targets * Iran continues regional strikes * US weighing pressure on Kharg Island * Energy supply risks rising * Inflation pressures spreading globally Lets see how the US opens today!

OIL SURGING AS WAR DRAGS ON Middle East conflict pushes oil higher for another week: • Brent > $108 (+5% this week, +50% this month) • $WTI $94 → lagging, spread widening ($14) • Hormuz near shutdown , supply shock fears What’s driving it: • Ongoing strikes on energy infrastructure • Refinery disruptions + missile activity • Rising global inflation risks Outlook: • Brent strength likely if disruption continues • WTI remains choppier and capped Geopolitics now driving the oil market.

AI CHIP SMUGGLING CASE ROCKS SMCI US charges a Super Micro co-founder for illegally routing Nvidia-powered AI servers to China. Key details: • Alleged billions in restricted AI tech diverted via Southeast Asia • Biggest chip smuggling case since 2022 export bans • Tied to efforts to bypass US controls on Nvidia chips Market reaction: • $SMCI stock dropped ~9% after hours • US-China tech war intensifying • Enforcement risk rising across AI supply chains This isn’t just legal , it’s geopolitical.