NicoA
9.8K posts








A new airliner costs >10× more to develop than a new rocket—but the reason isn’t “tech tree.” It’s complexity. A modern widebody like the 787 is a fundamentally more complex machine than a rocket like the Falcon 9: • 2–4× more total parts • 3–5× more moving parts • 50–200× more onboard software • 10× more actuators, pumps, valves, and pressurized systems • Plus interiors, ECS packs, landing gear, certification, and a global support ecosystem. Rockets look exotic and have high temperatures in the engines and heat shields and low temperatures in the propellant tanks, but they’re much, much simpler. The main reason rockets stay expensive is low production volume. That’s why scaling launch demand—constellations, space manufacturing, etc.—is the only path to airplane-like cost curves. The table below is my estimate of the comparison. I am pretty confident of the 787 estimate, but not the Falcon 9 estimate, but I would be surprised if the direction here is off. Would love to get @elonmusk Elon's view. Large rockets will soon be cheaper than large aircraft.



It costs over 10x more to develop a new plane than a new rocket. Largely because we are further in the plane tech tree than in the rocket one, and that’s because the launch market is too small. That’s why com constellations or space data centers are so important: volume.





















