Stable Investor

DO SIPs WORK? Of the 295 actively managed, diversified equity schemes with a two-year track record, 26% haven’t made any money in the last two years if you had started your SIP then, according to ACE MF data. Nearly 54% have failed to beat 5% returns. Just 1% of schemes have made returns in excess of 10% if you had started your SIP two years back. These are precisely the times when investors question the veracity and wisdom of SIPs. Which is where our annual @ET_Wealth - @CrisilLimited annual SIP Study 2026 comes in. If you continue your SIPs for 10 years, you won’t lose money. But the probability of incurring losses starts to decline after 4 years. + This year we have also analysed how long it takes for SIPs to recover after market crash. This is for those who panic and stop their SIPs in turbulence. But the bigger story is how investors actually behave during a crisis. Our cover story features three individuals who didn’t stop their SIPs despite a personal crisis, and two who did and paid the price. My story in this week’s @ET_Wealth. Let me know in the comments how you’ve reacted during a crisis; I would love to hear your stories.

Ok Baccha and Buddha Party, Le Grand Fromage writes today in @bsindia (The inspiration for this piece came from @Dhananj89102936 And @kaul_vivek) mybs.in/2g6D9Mk ( Message to all copy - pasters on Twitter: don't do this. Respect ideas, thoughts, IPRs. That's how great people & nations act. Always acknowledge gratefully.) Important Quiz Question: " How many Bull Markets has India had?" This is a deep, data driven piece, & meant ONLY for serious students of Investing. The data might surprise. Even shock you. Because it's never going to be told to you. Also meant for: Indian MF SIP investors. F2 Investors. NRIs. Probably not meant for MFDs. Fund Managers, TV anchors 😉 -I show you how our recent '20-'24 Bull Market was like Maradona 's Hand of God. -I highlight my own prop ratio for assessing Bull Markets: The Time Shift Return Dispersion. - I show you the shifting return plane of Indian Bull Markets -I also showcase Tim Dexter: my real & ONLY investing God. Read very very carefully. Absorb. Savor. Swirl. Swallow. Share. Let me know your thoughts. I read everything. I have plenty of time! Let me give you the initial few paras right here: How many Bull markets has India had And why this has implications on FII and retail flows You can tell a person from the heroes he worships. I worship Timothy Dexter. An eccentric entrepreneur of the 1700s, he made bets that had no logic. But they turned out to be gifts of Providence. For example, he was tricked into sending coal to Newcastle. Newcastle in England was the womb of coal. It was a move of the demented. But miners in Newcastle went on a flash strike. Coal prices shot up. Dexter made a ton. His business rivals suggested sending bed-warming pans—a winter tool—to tropical West Indies. His ship captain sold them as molasses ladles. Dexter made out again. My Dexter moment came in the spring of 1991. At the foothills of the Harshad Mehta boom, I espied an opportunity in a company called Karnataka Ball Bearings. The company did not seem to be having a great market for its ball bearings or whatever it is that it made. Hence, it was making massive losses. Then one fine day, it announced that it was closing down operations. A shifty trader sidled upto me in the trading ring of the BSE and whispered:" Buy KBB." I asked "Why?" " It's a sure thing: when it was operating it was making huge losses. But now that it has closed down, the losses will shrink. Heck, it might even turn profitable. And, by the way, I have some stock that I can sell you." I was a callow youth. My inner Dexter was seduced by the trenchant logic. It was God's own stock. Of course, it was a set up. I bought at Rs 5. Clearly, that low IQ Bull market thought the same and the stock went up to 150 or something. My moderately better IQ had me sell. I had my first fortune. You can be right for the wrong reasons and yet get rich. Mastering this is a rare skill. I have since, always believed, Great Fortunes are often outcomes of Good Fortune. But the reason why I mention this little story is: can we call the Harshad bull market an actual bull market? Or a bull market funded by PSU Banks, into a handful of stocks. A market that was played by a bunch of insiders (and Dexters like me). Naah, it was just a tiny, rigged wave. Dr. MMS was denied credit. That would come later.... mybs.in/2g6D9Mk

A family ran a Pump & Dump scam on Twitter, manipulated 82 stocks, and made ₹20,25,20,234 (₹20.25 Crore). Today, SEBI passed an order. Father Hemant, sons Rohan and Aniket, current wife, ex-wife, and two daughters. Everyone had a role. Rohan ran @WealthSolitaire with 13,600 followers. Aniket ran @desiwallstreet with 40,500 followers. Behind the scenes - 50+ WhatsApp groups all named "Den of Wealth 1, Den of Wealth 2..." and Telegram channels reaching 80,000 people. Modus operandi: Buy a low-liquidity SME stock quietly. Tweet a glowing recommendation. Blast it across WhatsApp and Telegram. Watch retail investors rush in and then Dump on them. SEBI raided their homes in January 2026. The chats said everything. After Rohan bought a stock, Hemant texted - "Tweet karo abhi, 4-5 din upper circuit aayega." They even knew they'd get caught - Aniket warned Hemant in 2023 - "SEBI is going after small handles too. Lifetime of earnings will be gone." They continued anyway. Today SEBI impounded ₹20.25 Crore. Every account, every property locked. Actual gains could be ₹55 Crore - investigation ongoing. A family that eats together, scams together and gets raided together.

Everyone by now knows #India has underperformed against global markets in past 2 years. But how much more? Looking at historical ranges of Global Market outperformance against India that outperformance may be coming to an end soon.

Jeff Bezos has owned the internet for the last 24 hours with his superbly sharp wisdom and insights. His take on what AI will do is, my POV too of what will happen! x.com/JonhernandezIA…