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20 | ✝️ | Severe Weather Analysis | National Wx: @weathertrackus



Still going against the grain a little for today, with some stronger wording. There's a possibility today doesn't end up as bad as it looks (for people), but with a line of supercells, whether they're discrete or embedded, entering a potent environment, it's a recipe for trouble

We're still concerned about the potential for several-numerous tornadoes, along with a few that could be strong to intense (EF2-EF3) across parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa & Minnesota, including the Siouxland region later this afternoon and this evening. There remains some uncertainty as far as how quickly storms along the cold front will grow upscale, which will determine the ceiling of today's tornado threat. If storms remain more discrete for longer, the hail and tornado threat will be maximized, but if storms congeal into a line earlier on, the damaging wind threat will be maximized. Still, even embedded supercells can produce large hail and strong-intense tornadoes, so the concern remains quite elevated regardless of storm mode. Further south along the dryline, the threat for severe storms/tornadoes is a bit more conditional, but the signal is there for at least isolated supercells developing late this afternoon, capable of producing large-very large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible as well. Stay tuned to weather information throughout the day, and monitor watches/warnings when they're issued this afternoon and tonight.

11:04am CDT #SPC Day1 #FireWX Extremely Critical: portions of extreme eastern new mexico, extreme southeastern colorado, southwestern kansas, and parts of the texas and oklahoma panhandles spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_…


Enhanced Risk of severe storms today across parts of the Northern Plains. All severe hazards are possible, including the potential for several-numerous tornadoes, a few of which may be strong. An intense tornado or two will be possible, mainly dependent on storm mode. Very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well.

