Star

It's beginning to look like very late March and particularly the first week of April could feature increased severe weather chances – particularly in eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, the Missouri Ozarks and perhaps the mid-Mississippi Valley. It's TOO EARLY to know any SPECIFICS, but we're able to look at broad-scale patterns and say, probabilistically, that there is an above-average likelihood of severe weather. What makes us say this? We're expecting troughing, or a digging jet stream, in the west. That will allow pockets of cold air to descend over the Rockies; pieces of that cool air mass will occasionally pinch off, ejecting eastward into an increasingly warm, humid air mass over the Mid-South as we head into April. April is when we begin to enter peak severe weather season too, so it's a good time to simply begin reviewing severe weather plans. If nothing else, this looks like a wet pattern too, so above-average rainfall is anticipated.

Not buying that... yet