State Cipher

😨 “We got Charlie in the neck.” #CharlieKirkshot #charliekirkshotdead

🇵🇰 Pakistan currently has crude oil reserves sufficient for 7 days, diesel for 17 days, petrol for 23 days, LPG for nine days and jet fuel (JP-1) for 11 days.

Iran needs to liberate the women of America.

Iran became the first country in the world to shoot down a $190 million American fifth-generation stealth F-35 fighter jet with a $3,000 domestically-made Iranian anti-air defense system. Just locking the plane on radar was a big deal.

@unusual_whales 🔴 No matter who sits in the Chair, 20% global LNG deficit is the "Hard Reality." #Trump wants to "print" or "cut" his way out of a physical scarcity crisis. Powell's refusal to move is a recognition that you cannot lower price of a oil by lowering price of a Dollar...

"President Trump has spent months talking about how badly he wants Chair Jerome Powell out of the Federal Reserve. Powell signaled that he isn’t going anywhere," per WSJ

#BREAKING || A close-up of smoke rising from the Haifa refinery #IranWar2026 #OilCrisis2026

"Gold and silver sell off as inflation fears grip global markets," per CNBC

@unusual_whales 🚨 10-year Treasury yield surging to 4.25%, opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold has become too high... In India Gold Import Bill will temporarily drop, offering a slight relief to India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD).

@Osint613 🔴 Damage has been identified at the Haifa oil refineries. Amit segal

NOW 🔴 Iran has launched missiles towards the State of Israel.

By framing cost as a binary choice between "funding" and "killing bad guys" 📌 Pentagon is attempting to bypass fiscal hawks in Congress who are questioning the lack of an exit strategy. Even with this, actual physical replacement of F-35s and advanced radars will take 18–36 months, leaving a "Vulnerability Window" that other actors (China/Russia) may exploit.

Secretary Hegseth on Pentagon request for Iran war supplemental of $200 billion: "As far as $200 billion. I think that number could move. Obviously, it takes it takes money to kill bad guys."

🤔 Private credit market ($1.8 trillion) depends on cheap liquidity and stable interest rates. Jet Fuel Spike ($1,600/t) has broken this. Airlines, logistics firms, and SaaS companies are now facing Triple Margin Loss: 👉 ​Rising fuel/energy input costs 👉 ​Surging interest expense (as "No More Rate Cuts" becomes reality) 👉​A collapse in customer demand

This, from Bloomberg, is not good news for a market segment that is already challenged to separate signal from noise, let alone properly differentiate among funds/firms in this space. #markets #privatecredit

🚨 How Strait of Hormuz Helping US... 👇👇 🙄 Oil from Permian Basin to US refineries does not cross a single contested chokepoint. Meanwhile, 17 million barrels of oil in Strait of Hormuz face a +$70 Insurance/Risk Premium Every US factory now has a 30–50% energy cost advantage over its competitors in Germany, India, and China. 🚨 Foreign buyers paying $150/barrel in USD must find those dollars. This forces them to sell their own currencies and buy USD, keeping Dollar Hegemony alive even as world burns. 👉 $60B profit for US oil is a massive Liquidity Injection into US banking system.

The US is ironically relatively "shielded" from rising oil prices abroad. Crude oil prices in Oman are trading at a +$70 premium to WTI crude, hitting record highs. Meanwhile, the US gets less than 8% of its oil from the Persian Gulf, at just 500,000 barrels per day. As a result, the US is actually seeing relatively *low* oil prices at home while foreign buyers are paying $150+/barrel in some cases. According to @KobeissiLetter, US oil companies are now set to make an additional $60+ billion this year if oil prices sustain current levels. US oil giants will realize record profits.

@ShivAroor 🚨 Main Issue : If pressure integrity is lost due to uncontrolled fires, water ingress can ruin recovery rate of remaining 90% of the gas 👉 CENTCOM’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) means no bird flies in that 9,700 km² box without thier knowledge..

There’s no way Trump wasn’t informed about Israel’s attack on Iran’s gas field. He is throwing Netanyahu under the bus only because of Iran’s equally escalatory response. A rumoured divergence between Trump & Netanyahu is now fully public. My take:

@ShivAroor US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is at a multi-decade low. By unsanctioning this specific water-borne oil, #Trump administration is attempting to perform a Remote SPR Injection...

At this rate, the U.S. may re-establish an Embassy next in Tehran.

🚨While Paper Gold market (ETFs/Futures) is nuking, 🚨Physical Premium in India and China is surging... 👉Metals traders are hyper-focused on Carry. If Fed cancels rate cuts (holding at 3.75%), cost of carry for holding gold is no longer zero 👉it's 3.75% plus storage. Institutional capital is rotating into Cash and Energy Derivatives to capture the immediate volatility.

What's interesting is despite gold and silver selling off sharply, the U.S. dollar is also falling against other foreign currencies. So if forex traders realize that cancelling rate cuts is not bullish for the dollar, why do precious metals traders think it's bearish for gold?

@BRICSinfo 🚨It is legal. It allows QatarEnergy to cancel contracts without penalty because an "Act of God" made performance impossible. 👉Expect gas prices in these four nations to remain 3x to 5x higher than the 2025 baseline indefinitely.

JUST IN: 🇶🇦 QatarEnergy may declare force majeure on LNG contracts for up to 5 years, affecting Italy, Belgium, Korea, and China.

@Osint613 🚨It is a legal. It allows QatarEnergy to cancel contracts without penalty because an "Act of God" made performance impossible. 👉Expect gas prices in these four nations to remain 3x to 5x higher than the 2025 baseline indefinitely.

QatarEnergy CEO: “We may have to declare force majeure on long-term contracts for up to five years for LNG supplies to Italy, Belgium, Korea, and China.”

🤦Perfect post from AndhBhakt.. 🙄 🚨 FACT CHECK 👇 Japan’s massive US Treasury holdings ($1.1 Trillion) and its 230–252 day strategic oil reserve act as a Macro-Insurance Policy. In contrast, India’s 7–8 day pure strategic reserve and 74-day total refinery stocks create a Just-in-Time vulnerability. As of today, Japan has activated its private-sector reserves to stabilize its grid, while India is negotiating a 30-day "Russian Oil Waiver" from US Treasury just to prevent domestic fuel rationing.

JAPAN IMPORTS 95% OIL FROM OVERSEAS. JAPAN HAS STRATEGIC RESERVE OF UPTO 252 DAYS. NOW COME TO INDIA INDIA IMPORTS ABOUT 90% OF CRUDE OIL. INDIA HAS A STRATEGIC RESERVES OF JUST 30 DAYS. TRUELY A VISHWAGURU.

Trump is losing control of this war.

🚨 It's not only about F35s, they also lost AN/FPS-132 Early Warning Radar ($1.1B) at Al Udeid, an AN/TPY-2 THAAD radar in UAE... 👉 US will leak aircraft losses via bureaucratic audits in late 2026.. 😂 👉 Trump's ego remains a significant factor. He will approve any agreement only if it is framed as a Trump-Modi victory.. ✌️ Ensuring that he, too, receives credit for "saving the global economy."

When will @POTUS openly admit to losses of US aircraft including the F 35s on ground in Iranian strike. Why is he scared to admit massive losses of US aircraft when he talks about others? @realDonaldTrump was announcing his ability to settle conflicts. What has happened now. Does he want @narendramodi to negotiate and claim the Nobel. Poor Trump, caught in a fix himself. @USAmbIndia

🚨 Trump’s denial is irrelevant... 🚨 Main Issue : If pressure integrity is lost due to uncontrolled fires, water ingress can ruin recovery rate of remaining 90% of the gas 👉 CENTCOM’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) means no bird flies in that 9,700 km² box without thier knowledge.. 👉 Even if fires stop tomorrow, Lloyd’s of London will not insure a tanker in that box for less than 10x of previous rate. 👉 This going to create Crisis in upcoming elections in India... 👉 Now Russia and US (as the only remaining major LNG exporters) will exert unprecedented political leverage over energy-hungry China and India.

People don’t fully realize how bad things are going to get for everyone. Israel and the U.S. (which denies involvement) struck Iran’s South Pars gas field. In response, Iran targeted Qatar’s North Field. These are two halves of the same reservoir the largest natural gas field on the planet. This single shared field spans about 9,700 km², roughly the size of Qatar itself, and contributes close to 20% of global LNG supply. It took decades and around $70 billion to build the infrastructure. And now, both sides of it have been hit. Even more concerning this field is only about 10% depleted. That means 90% of its gas is still underground. In simple terms, a huge portion of the world’s future energy supply has just become impossible to access. Roughly 35–50% of India’s LNG imports come from here. We are not talking about a short-term disruption. Damage at this scale could take years, possibly a decade, to fully recover from. And the bigger truth is, the global energy landscape may have just been permanently altered for the worse. From an energy perspective, this is dangerously close to a worst-case scenario. Rationing and energy export bans may start appearing in many countries soon. India could follow likely after upcoming state elections pass. Trump knows he messed up. You can believe his denial of involvement in hitting Iran’s South Pars if you want, but realistically, there is almost no chance a strike of this sensitivity happens without full visibility from U.S. Central Command. Operations in that region don’t happen in isolation. At this point, it looks like the U.S. has lost control of its own foreign policy direction. The greatest miscalculation for Trump may not have been the strike itself but allowing the situation to escalate into this war in the first place. He thought Iran, weakened by sanctions, internal pressure, and prior U.S.–Israeli strikes on its nuclear infrastructure, would quickly fold and unconditionally surrender after initial shocks, including high-level assassinations. But that assumption now looks flawed. Instead of collapse, Iran responds with escalation. That is why a bully like Trump is posting “NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE” But it will be extremely difficult for Iran to return to any meaningful dialogue with US since they have repeatedly shifted from negotiations to military action.