So I did an overlay of some el niño years: 2015, 2009, 1997 and 1982, and this is what I've got.
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Jamaica Katılım Şubat 2024
65 Takip Edilen550 Takipçiler
Super El Nino forecast.....Shaky..
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Weather Interpreter Tanny ⛈️🌤️@tan_5989
#Monsoon #ElNino This Seems Concerning😟 The Australian Weather Agency (BOM) which was Earlier Indicating Positive IOD to form during #Monsoon2026 has Downgraded it's Outlook and is now indicating only Neutral Conditions throughout the Season😓 The Latest IOD Index Stands at -0.04c If a +IOD Fails to Happen, the Monsoon could be left on Thin Air and would have to rely on its Own Dynamics to Power Itself and Counter the Negative Effects of an Evolving El Nino😢 Hoping for the Best🤞
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There's more to assessing a TC's intensity than just looking at IR sat imagery, but here's STY Sinlaku alongside Melissa. The W Pacific's ability to churn out these giga convective monsters always blows my mind
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We are reaching Soudelor levels of a wejj here. This is ridiculous in October. How is this April? That’s the power of the WPAC, with El Niño and WWB. Insane storm right here. Craziest I’ve tracked sine Melissa.
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Realistically, it's looking like:
Jun:
Arthur - TS
Jul:
Bertha - TS
Aug:
Cristobal - TS
Dolly - TS
Edourd - Cat 1
Sept:
Fay - Cat 4
Gonzalo - TS
Hanna - Cat 3
Oct:
Isaias - TS
Josephine - TS
Nov:
-
Total:
10 Named Storms
3 Hurricanes
2 Major H's
Ace: 61
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Really interested to see if this El niño finally places a cap on the Atl. It's been exhausting to go through and witness an average to hyperactive season every yr since 2015. It will also be interesting to see how warm the Atl gets and if that will cushion some of the effects.
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@cyclonicwx It's always interesting to see these transitions unfold.
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As the warm pool surfaces, we're seeing a solid warm tongue in the east Pacific heralding the beginnings of this year's El Niño. Get used to seeing this feature grow and stick around for the next year!
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Imo, I think it will be below average but with 2-3 very intense cyclones. Like 2025 but with less named storms.
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Will we finally see a legitimate below average Atlantic hurricane season in terms of ACE since 2015? 🥹
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chazzzwx@chazzzwx
holy fucking 2016 or 1998
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@ATLAreaWx It along with zeta were the only landfalling major hurricanes to not get retired in the 2020's.
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Idalia is probably one of the most forgettable US landfalling major hurricanes, which is why I’m surprised to see Idalia actually do this.
SparkServiceWx@SparkServiceWX
Daily Reminder To Not Stand In Hurricanes, Unless Your A Storm Chaser. From The Landfall Of Hurricane Idalia A Few Years Back. 📸: @Whos_Grif_ 📌Perry, Florida - August 30th, 2023
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@daniloevan11 Similar thoughts
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Weather Stats@StatsWeather
The latest CanSIPS shows a possibility you don't want to see this upcoming hurricane season. 2023 for example showcased a similar configuration and ended up having an above average season in the Atlantic. Hopefully the waters aren't as ridiculous as this as we approach the peak.
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as well as surprisingly low wind shear being forecasted. I suppose that maybe the CanSIPS is seeing a 2023 type situation where the Atlantic becomes very warm despite El niño, and ends up fighting against unfavorable conditions that may be imposed from the Pacific.
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Zooming in on the Atlantic, despite the CanSIPS showing a potent El Niño by this time, the Atlantic basin looks decently favorable during the peak of hurricane season, at least on the model. SSTA's are very warm, with very strong westerly wind anomalies aiding in that...
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The latest CanSIPS shows a possibility you don't want to see this upcoming hurricane season. 2023 for example showcased a similar configuration and ended up having an above average season in the Atlantic. Hopefully the waters aren't as ridiculous as this as we approach the peak.
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@daniloevan11 The Atlantic looking like it got an el niño going on there too.
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The march edition of the CanSIPS forecast is out, showing a very potent El Niño developing by the time we get to the peak of hurricane season, once again. The Atlantic however, is also very warm and precip wise, very wet too.
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@rushtropicalwx If the waters are toasty like they were in 2023 in the tropics, we might unfortunately end up being above average again. But that anomaly happening twice consecutively is rare.
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