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THE ARIZONA PRIMARY IS UNDERWAY Mail-In absentee ballots will be delivered to voters all over the state starting this week. Maricopa, the largest county by registrations, will account for roughly ~60% of total votes cast statewide this July. 🔴76.7% of Republicans are set to receive an absentee ballot. 🔵85.3% of Democrats are set to receive an absentee ballot. ⚪Only 10.7% of other parties are set to receive an absentee ballot from one of the primaries. The AZ Primary Elections will be won or lost in the next few weeks, based on historical voter habits. Mail-In Ballots will carry lion's share of votes.

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·41m

Maricopa County primary - Election Day poll voters (7/21): 12 PM update. 20,988 have voted in person across 237 vote centers. 🔴 Reps 12,412 (59.1%) 🔵 Dems 2,652 (12.6%) ⚪ Ind/Other 5,924 (28.2%) Reps lead by 9,760 ballots (+46.5 pp) of 20,988 in. Of independents who've voted: 🔴 2,934 pulled a Rep ballot 🔵 2,162 Dem ⚪ 702 Other R 58 / D 42 on the partisan split.

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·1h

Pima County primary - Election Day poll voters (7/21): 11 AM update. 7,029 have voted in person across 120 vote centers. 🔴 Reps 4,363 (62.1%) 🔵 Dems 1,314 (18.7%) ⚪ Ind/Other 1,352 (19.2%) Reps lead by 3,049 ballots (+43.4 pp) of 7,029 in.

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·1h

Maricopa County primary - Election Day poll voters (7/21): 11 AM update. 16,218 have voted in person across 237 vote centers. 🔴 Reps 9,603 (59.2%) 🔵 Dems 2,033 (12.5%) ⚪ Ind/Other 4,582 (28.3%) Reps lead by 7,570 ballots (+46.7 pp) of 16,218 in. Of independents who've voted: 🔴 2,268 pulled a Rep ballot 🔵 1,690 Dem ⚪ 528 Other R 57 / D 43 on the partisan split.

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·1h

@Garrett_Archer Not in my export - it's voter, address, districts, party, ballot party, vote center. Nothing on ballot method. County would have it though, off the early ballot tabulator counts.

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The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru@Garrett_Archer·2h

@StealthPolling Do the tear sheets specify if anyone has used the affidavit envelope method?

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·2h

Maricopa County primary - Election Day poll voters (7/21): 10 AM update. 11,516 have voted in person across 237 vote centers. 🔴 Reps 6,890 (59.8%) 🔵 Dems 1,455 (12.6%) ⚪ Ind/Other 3,171 (27.5%) Reps lead by 5,435 ballots (+47.2 pp) of 11,516 in. Of independents who've voted: 🔴 1,551 pulled a Rep ballot 🔵 1,178 Dem ⚪ 373 Other R 57 / D 43 on the partisan split.

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·3h

Maricopa County primary - Election Day poll voters (7/21): 9 AM update. 7,453 have voted in person across 237 vote centers. 🔴 Reps 4,438 (59.5%) 🔵 Dems 968 (13.0%) ⚪ Ind/Other 2,047 (27.5%) Reps lead by 3,470 ballots (+46.6 pp) of 7,453 in. Of independents who've voted: 🔴 967 pulled a Rep ballot 🔵 783 Dem ⚪ 252 Other R 55 / D 45 on the partisan split.

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·4h

Maricopa County primary - Election Day poll voters (7/21): 8:00 AM update. 4,465 have voted in person across 233 vote centers. 🔴 Reps 2,636 (59.0%) 🔵 Dems 607 (13.6%) ⚪ Ind/Other 1,222 (27.4%) Reps lead by 2,029 ballots (+45.4 pp) of 4,465 in. Of independents who've voted: 🔴 583 pulled a Rep ballot 🔵 474 Dem ⚪ 139 Other R 55 / D 45 on the partisan split.

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·21h

@rhondabannard Here you are my friend. These heatmaps are based on total votes. (Overall, Rep, Dem, Ind) Feel free to check out these interactive maps and get as granular as you want for any race in Arizona here: stealth-analytics.com/early-ballots

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Rhonda Bannard 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🌻🌎@rhondabannard·21h

@StealthPolling Wish maps were done with color shading based on population of the party and not just making a bunch of empty land a color.

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·1d

AZ statewide primary early ballot returns - Last Day of Early Voting (7/20): Final Analysis going into election day. 802,935 early ballots are in - nearly 1 in 5 registered Arizonans has already voted. 🔴 Reps 372,025 (46.3%) 🔵 Dems 352,789 (43.9%) ⚪ Ind/Other 78,121 (9.7%) Reps lead by 19,236 ballots (+2.4 pp) of 802,935 in. Of independents who've voted: 🔵32,462 pulled a Dem ballot 🔴28,539 Rep ⚪17,120 Other D 53 / R 47 on the partisan split. 📮 The mail window is CLOSED. Anything that was dropped in a mailbox after last Wednesday won't arrive in time. What's flowing in now are ballots that have moved through the mail process since then. 📊 NOW vs 2022: Total early vote: 802,935 vs 1,214,631 (2022 final) - 66% of 2022's, with one day of drop-offs left. 🔴 Reps at 65% of their 2022 early vote 🔵 Dems at 71% of theirs Margin: R+2.4 today vs R+6.3 in 2022 - Republicans running ~4 points weaker in returns Independents: broke R 60/40 in 2022. Today they're D 53/47 - a 26-point swing. Only a historic Election Day turnout can close a gap this size.

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·1d

We would say calling this partisan split ‘prognostic’ gets too much in the territory of editorialism. The data is just the data from our perspective. We will leave the interpretation to those observing what we post. Keep in mind, this is missing Election Day votes and anything else that comes in before tomorrow night.

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Penguin Cavalry@Penguin57a·1d

@StealthPolling I suppose you are going to tell us that primary partisan vote totals are not prognostic (my own knowledge of this is sometimes it is and sometimes it is not, but there is a lobby that just reflexively says "no")

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·3d

@VORNORACK Each county recorder’s office in Arizona. There are 15.

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Elijah Cole Horton@VORNORACK·4d

@StealthPolling @StealthPolling where did you pull this data from?

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·5d

AZ Maricopa County primary early ballot returns (7/16): Five days to go. Maricopa's Republican lead in early ballot returns is widening - from a dead heat a week ago to R+2.5 today. 2022 Final Early Ballot count was a R+10 🔴 Reps 202,092 (46.3%) 🔵 Dems 190,974 (43.7%) ⚪ Ind/Other 43,560 (10.0%) Reps lead by 11,118 ballots (+2.5 pp) of 436,626 in. Of independents who've voted: 🔵18,161 pulled a Dem ballot 🔴15,238 Rep ⚪10,161 Other D 54 / R 46 on the partisan split.

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·5d

AZ-01 primary early ballot returns (7/16) - 5 days out. CD1 will be one of the most crucial general election races in the entire country. Both Dems and Reps have two very contested primaries - resolving next Tuesday. CD1 still leads all of Arizona in early turnout - 114,267 ballots back, a 37.5% return rate, tops among all 9 districts. 🔴 Reps 53,016 (46.4%) 🔵 Dems 48,444 (42.4%) ⚪ Ind/Other 12,807 (11.2%) Reps lead by 4,572 ballots (+4.0 pp) of 114,267 in. Of independents who've voted: 🔵5,264 pulled a Dem ballot 🔴4,578 Rep ⚪2,965 Other D 53 / R 47 on the partisan split.

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·5d

@Tia_Arizona Correct, independents have reversed course from what they were in 2022. See the comparison at the end of this post yesterday

Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling

AZ 2026 PRIMARY EARLY BALLOT FINAL PROJECTIONS - 6 DAYS OUT 632,603 ballots in. 🔴 Reps 288,089 (45.5%) 🔵 Dems 282,602 (44.7%) ⚪ Ind/Other 61,912 (9.8%) Reps lead by 5,487 (+0.9 pp) so far. 1. TURNOUT IS TRACKING UNDER 2022 2022 final early vote: 1,214,631 2026 so far: 632,603 - 52% of it To tie 2022: 97,005/day ballots needed for 6 straight days Best day all cycle so far: 75,024 ballots Projected finish at current pace: ~971,000 ballots = 80% of 2022 2. REPUBLICANS ARE BACK-LOADING INTO THE LEAD Daily returns have flipped: 🔴 Reps +27,494/day 🔵 Dems +23,328/day Maricopa margin: 7/9 - D+238 ballots (Then) 7/15 - R+9,287 ballots (Now) Share of each party's 2022 early-vote total already banked: 🔵 Dems 57% 🔴 Reps 50% ⚪ Inds 44% 3. FAR FEWER INDEPENDENTS OPTED INTO THIS PRIMARY THAN 2022 61,912 independent ballots - 44% of their 2022 total Share of electorate: 9.8% (2022: 11.6%) Would need 2.3x their daily pace to match 2022 And the ones voting flipped: 2022 - R 60 / D 40 2026 - D 54 / R 46

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Tia@Tia_Arizona·5d

@StealthPolling The gap between Independents pulling a Dem vs Rep ballot widens

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·5d

@rimcrater Yes, in fact, we posted about that very thing yesterday:

Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling

AZ 2026 PRIMARY EARLY BALLOT FINAL PROJECTIONS - 6 DAYS OUT 632,603 ballots in. 🔴 Reps 288,089 (45.5%) 🔵 Dems 282,602 (44.7%) ⚪ Ind/Other 61,912 (9.8%) Reps lead by 5,487 (+0.9 pp) so far. 1. TURNOUT IS TRACKING UNDER 2022 2022 final early vote: 1,214,631 2026 so far: 632,603 - 52% of it To tie 2022: 97,005/day ballots needed for 6 straight days Best day all cycle so far: 75,024 ballots Projected finish at current pace: ~971,000 ballots = 80% of 2022 2. REPUBLICANS ARE BACK-LOADING INTO THE LEAD Daily returns have flipped: 🔴 Reps +27,494/day 🔵 Dems +23,328/day Maricopa margin: 7/9 - D+238 ballots (Then) 7/15 - R+9,287 ballots (Now) Share of each party's 2022 early-vote total already banked: 🔵 Dems 57% 🔴 Reps 50% ⚪ Inds 44% 3. FAR FEWER INDEPENDENTS OPTED INTO THIS PRIMARY THAN 2022 61,912 independent ballots - 44% of their 2022 total Share of electorate: 9.8% (2022: 11.6%) Would need 2.3x their daily pace to match 2022 And the ones voting flipped: 2022 - R 60 / D 40 2026 - D 54 / R 46

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Haakon@rimcrater·5d

@StealthPolling Do you see early vote as smaller this year than 2022?

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Stealth Analytics@StealthPolling·6d

AZ 2026 PRIMARY EARLY BALLOT FINAL PROJECTIONS - 6 DAYS OUT 632,603 ballots in. 🔴 Reps 288,089 (45.5%) 🔵 Dems 282,602 (44.7%) ⚪ Ind/Other 61,912 (9.8%) Reps lead by 5,487 (+0.9 pp) so far. 1. TURNOUT IS TRACKING UNDER 2022 2022 final early vote: 1,214,631 2026 so far: 632,603 - 52% of it To tie 2022: 97,005/day ballots needed for 6 straight days Best day all cycle so far: 75,024 ballots Projected finish at current pace: ~971,000 ballots = 80% of 2022 2. REPUBLICANS ARE BACK-LOADING INTO THE LEAD Daily returns have flipped: 🔴 Reps +27,494/day 🔵 Dems +23,328/day Maricopa margin: 7/9 - D+238 ballots (Then) 7/15 - R+9,287 ballots (Now) Share of each party's 2022 early-vote total already banked: 🔵 Dems 57% 🔴 Reps 50% ⚪ Inds 44% 3. FAR FEWER INDEPENDENTS OPTED INTO THIS PRIMARY THAN 2022 61,912 independent ballots - 44% of their 2022 total Share of electorate: 9.8% (2022: 11.6%) Would need 2.3x their daily pace to match 2022 And the ones voting flipped: 2022 - R 60 / D 40 2026 - D 54 / R 46