The Counselor

🚨The global oil market is racing toward a major shock. Inventories are collapsing while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Supermajor executives are issuing blunt warnings that prices could surge dramatically in the coming weeks. •@exxonmobil SVP Neil Chapman: “We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels... really, really low levels... Once you get to that point, then you’ll see price shoot up.” He sees Brent potentially hitting $150–$160 per barrel. •@Chevron CEO Mike Wirth: “The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down... the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished.” He expects more upward pressure into July. •Global inventories have plunged by a record 8.7 million barrels per day in May alone. •The largest supply disruption in history - 12-13 million bpd offline - has exhausted strategic reserves and commercial stocks. We’re rapidly approaching the operational floor where physical shortages become unavoidable. •This isn’t speculation. It’s the cold reality of the physical market overriding hopeful paper trading and diplomatic optimism. A spike to $150+ oil would hammer consumers, spike inflation, disrupt supply chains, and risk pushing vulnerable economies into recession. •The crisis exposes years of fragile “just-in-time” inventory practices and over-reliance on chokepoints. Energy security demands better: diversified supplies, adequate reserves, and responsible domestic production. •Markets will eventually balance through painful demand destruction, but the transition will be costly. Policymakers and leaders ignore these warnings at their peril. •The bill for neglecting energy reality is about to arrive, and it will be measured in triple-digit prices and widespread economic pain. Bottom line: If there really is a deal to be made to end this lingering war, President Trump would be well advised to make it ASAP. This isn’t a game – global markets do not care about your diplomatic protocols.