Jay Wong

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Jay Wong

Jay Wong

@Stepmark_Jay

M&A banker focused on the AI industry. Not financial advice, DYOR.

San Francisco Katılım Eylül 2008
865 Takip Edilen934 Takipçiler
Jay Wong
Jay Wong@Stepmark_Jay·
This suggests not using China to manufacture because we all know why there are leaks ahead of new iPhone releases. Manufacture at scale but doing it quietly would fit that.
Anjney Midha@AnjneyMidha

@mil000 its already here. only a few ppl have access. manufacturing at scale takes time. especially if you want to do it quietly

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Jay Wong
Jay Wong@Stepmark_Jay·
Last round before IPO. What's implicit is that this round's investors are expecting further upside at IPO, so Anthropic's valuation is likely to be much higher than $900B. Typical 1-day IPO pop is 20%, implying an approx. $1.1T market cap.
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Jay Wong
Jay Wong@Stepmark_Jay·
@MartinGTobias In Uber, try toggling between Personal and Business profiles. The delta in pricing will surprise you!
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Martin Tobias (Pre-Seed VC)
Martin Tobias (Pre-Seed VC)@MartinGTobias·
Variance in ride share is huge and worth exploring. Today manhattan to jfk: Uber: $200 Lyft: $90 Empower: $75 Same product.
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Jay Wong
Jay Wong@Stepmark_Jay·
Post money valuation of $60mm, incredible.
Jay Wong tweet media
Steve Vassallo@vassallo

In April 2016, I threatened to climb over @andrewdfeldman's fence to give him his first term sheet for @cerebras. It was April Fool’s day, but I wasn’t fooling around. The story started in October 2007, when Andrew and his co-founder Gary Lauterbach had just started SeaMicro. Even then, Andrew was a force of nature. He was extremely intense and miswired in all the right ways. You could feel the sparks flying off him. We didn't invest in SeaMicro, but we stayed in touch. Andrew and the team built SeaMicro then sold it to AMD in 2012. When AMD acquired SeaMicro, I had a hunch Andrew wouldn't last long inside a big company. He has, as I've said many times, immense ambition and a heart full of disobedience. By early 2014, he was looking for an escape hatch. Over the next year and a half, Andrew and I met 6 or 7 times. Sometimes in our office. Sometimes at a coffee shop in Portola Valley. Sometimes at our local tennis and swim club. We kept coming back to one thing: deep learning workloads were growing exponentially, and traditional compute architectures couldn't keep up. GPUs had become the default for neural network training, mainly because researchers had accidentally discovered they were less terrible than CPUs. Andrew, Gary and Sean saw the GPU for what it was: a battlefield promotion of a chip optimized for graphics. Better than a CPU, but not what anyone would design starting from a blank sheet of paper. Their key insight was that memory bandwidth, not raw compute, was the real constraint on what neural networks could achieve. So Andrew, Sean Lie, Gary Lauterbach, Jean-Philippe Fricker and Michael James set out to do something nobody had pulled off in the 75-year history of semiconductors: Build a wafer-scale chip the size of a dinner plate. In April 2016, I asked Andrew if we could be his first term sheet. @ericvishria at Benchmark and I co-led the round along with Pierre Lamond from Eclipse. Then the hard work began. In the 75-year history of computing, no one had made wafer scale work. Which meant no one had ever had to solve the problems that came from trying. How do you power a chip that large? How do you cool one? How do you maintain electrical continuity across tens of thousands of connection points on a single piece of silicon? To get there, Cerebras had to invent in nearly every modern computing discipline at once: semiconductors, systems, data fabric, software, algorithms. Each was a startup in its own right. Their first wafer self-destructed on initial power-up and Andrew and the team were back in the lab the next morning, identifying what didn’t work and coming up with approaches to solving it. Yesterday, Cerebras went public. 19 years after our first meeting, 10 years after that April Fool's term sheet, they’ve built a generational AI company. From a coffee shop in Portola Valley to ringing the bell at the NASDAQ. What a journey. Proud to have been Andrew's first partner in Cerebras. Even prouder to call him my friend.

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Jay Wong
Jay Wong@Stepmark_Jay·
As I get older, I find that habits are hard to break, which makes having good habits that much better. Back when I was at a "big bank", I worked a lot with a senior banker who would write in the first line "Internal only" whenever he removed external recipients, so that the entire banking team knew it was addressed only to us.
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Jay Wong
Jay Wong@Stepmark_Jay·
Spent some time this week discussing with others about recent PE partnership announcements from OpenAI and Anthropic and what it means. I think the most interesting question is not just distribution or increasing AI usage. It's whether PE-backed companies become one of the first real-world test cases for AI adoption. PE investors are disciplined underwriters. They typically need to see a path to measurable value creation within a 5 - 7 year hold period. After an acquisition, the PE value creation playbook is to invest in three areas: (1) people, (2) processes, and (3) software. AI has the potential to affect all of these areas: People: higher productivity per employee, especially when paired with high-agency teams willing to adopt new tools Processes: faster, more automated workflows with fewer manual handoffs Software: new systems of record and execution that don't just track work, but increasingly perform it It's unclear based on the public press releases how the money is being spent in the PE + AI partnerships, but assuming the portfolio companies bear the operating costs, it will result in a real-world test case of ROI on AI adoption. That is where token pricing becomes strategically important. When Krishna Rao, Anthropic CFO, was asked by Patrick O'Shaughnessy why doesn't Anthropic raise its token pricing when demand is so high, I thought his reply was spot on and probably overlooked by many. (As a sidenote, this is something that Bill Gurley has spoken about at length. In a properly functioning marketplace, you raise prices to meet demand when supply constrained. Makes total sense, otherwise someone -- aka VCs -- is subsidizing the demand.) However, Krishna responded that by keeping token prices low, it leads to Jevons Paradox where usage actually increases as new use cases emerge, opening up new TAMs that would otherwise be locked out. For PE investors, there will be plenty of opportunities to implement AI to drive returns. Over the next 12-24 months, as more compute comes online and the PE + AI partnerships unfold, we’ll see whether the market is simply tokenmaxxing or whether real-world value is actually being created.
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Jay Wong
Jay Wong@Stepmark_Jay·
@stevehou He’s just like us. Still carrying his own bags.
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Steve Hou
Steve Hou@stevehou·
Last minute China trip.
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Deva Hazarika
Deva Hazarika@devahaz·
@markpinc @zachcoelius Yep. Random connection is I had an office in sega building and met Sunil when he was doing brightmail there post freeloader, and then you ended up buying the whole building.
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mark pincus
mark pincus@markpinc·
Your instinct is right 95% of the time but your idea is right at best 25% of the time. Most founders die on the hill of their first idea when the real win is the instinct underneath it. In 2003, i had the instinct that we should be able to order a taxi through our phone. My idea was to text message the dispatcher. I bought smstaxi.com and wrote a business plan that only ever got to a million dollars a month in revenues so I never acted on it (i figured i’d make a dollar per ride). The winning idea that @travisk and @gc brilliantly invented was to enable anyone to be a taxi, launching the gig economy. I never would have come up with that. I write about this paradox and how to avoid it in my new book out June 23: lifeatthespeedofplay.com
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Jay Wong
Jay Wong@Stepmark_Jay·
@ProfPaulNary Have been involved in several activist campaigns. This is a correct take. Corporates are held to a much higher standard than activists, and having an experienced team helps prevent unforced errors.
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Paul Nary
Paul Nary@ProfPaulNary·
The use of strategic communications advisor firms like Joele Frank by $EBAY is a completely normal, standard practice today, especially when involved in high-stakes situations like $GME's unsolicited offer. These advisors are almost as (if at least occasionaly not more) important in the world of digital and social media as the bankers and the lawyers. Words can move the needle. Most public forms, especially larger ones, have these advisors on retainer. If anything, not using an advisor in a high stakes situation like we have here would be a questionable decision. Yes, it's all a part of the corporate thing and perhaps being overly cautious and conservative, but it's also a part of managing real risks and carefully crafting the narrative where a wrong phrase or a botched TV appearance may lead to destruction of billions of dollars in shareholder value. Although this wasn't a thing a few decades ago, today targets use them, acquirers use them, activist investors use them, etc. They're a fixture in the room and work with the execs and the board and the lawyers and the bankers. And just like you may want to hire the best M&A lawyer and banker who had done 100s of transactions just like yours, given today's landscape you probably also want a comms expert, and maybe even a highly-paid one from a firm that has had experience with 100s of similar situations. I even bring a guest speaker from one of these firms to my MBA M&A class to talk about the role of these advisors in M&A and activist engagements.
Liz Morton ~ Value Added Resource@ValueAddedRS

ICYMI: $EBAY tipped hand in unsolicited email to me - they're being advised on $GME by strategic comms firm Joele Frank.👀 FYI: Head of Financial & Crisis Comms Maddy Martinez came by way of TCGPlayer w/ prev stint at Joele Frank. @ryancohen might find that interesting.

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Jay Wong
Jay Wong@Stepmark_Jay·
@jhong @anissagardizy8 I’m too lazy to look it up but the annual proxy filing will disclose avg employee comp.
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Alex Kehr
Alex Kehr@alexkehr·
@pitdesi please refer the VCs to me. i need to buy a patek
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Sheel Mohnot
Sheel Mohnot@pitdesi·
In case you were wondering where we're at in the cycle, I just heard about a seed round where the founder is selling secondary
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Jay Wong
Jay Wong@Stepmark_Jay·
On the topic of life and the “career grind”, I’ll just share this: rkg.blog/instacart.php
Jay Wong tweet media
Blueprintsmb@blueprintsmb22

It’s cliche but life comes at you fast. I go back and forth between pushing for a sense of urgency in life versus enjoying the journey. I’m in my 40s and feel young but also am stressed that I don’t have enough time. Recently I connected with two early 30 hedge fund guys asking for advice. First guy’s path was equity research and then pod hedge funds where he’s experienced some bad luck as both of his portfolio managers at different firms had been let go after poor performance. Recruiters were chasing him and his resume is clean so he would have been able to find a job quickly, but he was reticent to stay on his current path as the idea of finding a new job every 2-3 years seemed unsustainable. He came to the factory earlier this year to learn about business buying. Second guy’s path was banking, private equity and now single manager that has over a $1bn but performance has been blah and he is losing confidence it is a path of growth long term and is considering long only or pod hedge funds. He is smart enough he will both options no doubt. First guy lives a spartan life with his fiance (W2) and they live in a cheap apt outside of Manhattan to save money. They have enough liquidity to buy a sizable business and are now pursuing this path. They want to play the long game of finding a business knowing it could take time. Second guy is more debating if pods worth it given the stress and high turnover with exit options less clear to him if he’s 40 and gets canned (happens a lot) versus the lower beta long only path with less upside. I’m in year 4 of business ownership and it’s hard as heck and there have been periods where I didn’t pay myself for 6 months to prioritize not having to let employees go and pay down debt (I’ve paid off close to 7 figures of debt since the deal closed). I am still trying to figure shvt out myself and still have days I think I’m dead while other days I think my business is worth 8 figures. I’ve been fortunate that things have been working out, but what’s funny is that I would love to be 32 again. As I’ve gotten older I’ve realized time is just as important if not more important than money. I had similar concerns as both of them at 32. I was at a pod and like most of the industry had severe career insecurity as I basically saw a team fired weekly. I was too scared/risk adverse to leave until I had a daughter and realized I wanted to be around her more. I asked my friends if they would rather have $500k and be 30 or have $5mm and be 40. 100 pct said be 30. I agree with this. Both of these guys will be fine. I get the stress. But 40 will be here sooner than they think and it’s smart they are both thinking out 5 years. They both don’t realize it because they are too focused myopically on their current decision trees, but they both still have something us older guys wish we had more of=> time.⏳ x.com/adamstatonsmit…

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Jay Wong
Jay Wong@Stepmark_Jay·
To me, this suggests that we are still so early in the AI buildout that capex is fungible. It doesn’t matter that much if you go AWS, GCP, xAI (!!!), CoreWeave, etc. As a hyperscaler / neocloud, the moat isn’t there yet because compute is in such short supply.
Yishan@yishan

@DavidSacks And it turns out that the business case is just “if you spend the money to build it out but can’t make use of it, you can rent it out to the AI company that can” and you’ll make near-market token rates. The demand exists and is fungible.

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Anjney Midha
Anjney Midha@AnjneyMidha·
a friend recently asked me how i was able to predict the future of certain technologies and invest in the right companies early enough the secret is to travel but it is a very specific form of travel that is all i can say
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Jay Wong
Jay Wong@Stepmark_Jay·
@FirstSquawk QNX is not talked enough. Massive untapped opportunity in auto software as cars become increasingly connected.
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First Squawk
First Squawk@FirstSquawk·
BLACKBERRY IS BACK — NOW MAKING MONEY THROUGH SOFTWARE AND CYBERSECURITY, NOT PHONES
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Jay Wong
Jay Wong@Stepmark_Jay·
@devahaz SF is great when you’re in your 20-30s, single or kid-free. But once you have a family you can’t beat the school and parks along the peninsula and South Bay. I’d say east bay too but am mostly focusing on folks who are in tech. East bay is a tough commute.
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