
Sterling Douglass
1.3K posts

Sterling Douglass
@Sterling_DB
Co-Founder & CEO | @ChowlyInc | #ChicagoStartUp | #AngelInvestor |#ForbesContributor | Big time #BearDown fan | Host https://t.co/0UjZFVZ7fp



Has anyone been more accurate on restaurant predictions in recent years than I've been publicly? 2024: Value menus dominate. ✓ ~McDonald's $5 Meal Deal sparked industry-wide "value wars" ~Every major chain followed: BK, Wendy's, Taco Bell ~Cava CEO: "Most intense discount environment since the Great Recession" 2025: Value stays but experience differentiates. ✓ ~Chili's: Value + Experience = 31% comp sales, 20% traffic ~Texas Roadhouse: Value + "Legendary Service" = 6.1% comps, 4.3% traffic growth ~Subway's value-only deal? Ended early. Flopped. ***My 2026 Predictions*** 1. US restaurant unit growth near-flat. Norm 2%, I believe good chance we'll be below 1% or close to it, but still positive. ~900+ legacy closures confirmed (Wendy's 300, TGI Fridays 147, Denny's 100+) ~Traffic fell every month of 2025 except July ~FSR already 18% smaller than 2019 2. Catering floods with competition. Independent scratch operators take the business that matters, but most volume still goes to the factory food model. ~54% of restaurants adding catering — top revenue strategy ~Most use Sysco/US Foods — they'll dominate volume ~Premium corporate accounts go to scratch operators who differentiate ~Everyone else competes on price and/or brand recognition for the leftovers I'll add more detail in replies. @McFranchisee @davidhenkes @HedgeyeFood @QSRguy @Sterling_DB @JamesOReillyHQ @ChefGruel @Mike_Haracz @RonRuggless @jonathanmaze



@MichaelKudrna estimate the costs and incorporate them into higher doordash prices


There are too many "influencers" selling "get rich quick" packages/subs that amount to "cold email everyone, all day, every day" with the same lines















Papa John's and Dominos have nothing on our Chicago Stuffed Crust 🍕



Hooters restaurants about to declare bankruptcy it seems Restaurant recession continues









