Steve Coast
1.9K posts

Steve Coast
@SteveC
Maps @ https://t.co/Y77QHRu9qY (opinions mine). Founder @openstreetmap. 🤗 https://t.co/Zbvxj1MCiz 🗺️ https://t.co/1ugqrCW3gw 🗺️ https://t.co/oRdgwZb3Cg

WHAT!?!?!?!? MacBook Neo Repairability: 1. The battery is fully secured by screws with no adhesive 2. Modular components USB‑C ports, speakers, and headphone jack 3. The keyboard is replaceable as an individual part rather than a full top‑case unit Is this the same company?







The time of day for cancer immunotherapy is associated with major outcomes. Early is better. Results from a randomized trial of lung cancer, backs up the importance of our circadian rhythm and immune system nature.com/articles/s4159…



This might be the biggest result from this year's ASCO meeting. Assuming this holds, then just by treating people early in the day, we can DOUBLE survival time for the most common (80-85%) type of lung cancer. As a reminder, lung cancer accounts for 20% of ALL CANCER DEATHS.

Elon: “Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla. This will be obvious in hindsight.” James points out the teleoperation crutch and volume of data disparity. Here’s what’s going on. First, let’s talk about SCALE: Waymo just reported “over 100 million fully autonomous miles driven” while Tesla has 6.8 billion FSD miles driven (growing over 10,000 miles per minute). Tesla has 68x more autonomous miles driven than Waymo. Waymo has a fleet of 2,500 cars. Tesla has ~5,100,000 cars with the AI4 computer (capable of running the latest FSD v.14.2.1). Tesla’s fleet is 2,040x larger. This means Tesla has an enormous data advantage. If there is only 1 interesting trainable event per million miles, for example, Tesla sees 68x more of those events than Waymo. This is then fed back into the model to train it, in a flywheel effect. BUT WAIT, there’s more: Note that Tesla’s FSD miles driven is growing at over 10,000 miles every minute. Waymo is doing 450,000 paid drives per week. The average Waymo ride is about 6 miles in length. This means Waymo is collecting 2,700,000 miles of data every week from its paid rides. This is only 268 miles per minute. Compared with 10,000 for Tesla. So the delta between the miles collected by Tesla and the miles collected by Waymo, which is used to improve their respective models, is only getting wider. If we believe in Sutton’s bitter lesson—that more compute (and data) will win the day—this will be a bitter lesson for Waymo indeed. Tesla’s data advantage is huge and the gap is getting wider, fast. Next, let’s talk about CAPITAL: Waymos cost >$100,000 per car. To deploy 500,000 more Waymos will cost the company $50 billion of up front capex. This would be only 10% of Tesla’s existing fleet. Note that Tesla’s fleet is growing on the order of ~500,000 every three months. For free. It costs Tesla $0 to do so, since it gets paid by customers, who buy the car from Tesla, generating profits for Tesla in the process. Next, let’s talk about TECHNICAL APPROACH: Waymo relies on LiDAR + cameras and HD maps of a city. This makes it inherently a more brittle solution (if the city’s map changes, it must be remapped). Sensor confusion is also a real thing, since sensor fusion is hard. Elon knows LiDAR well; he uses them at SpaceX. He rejected them at Tesla for good reasons. Tesla’s approach is vision only, end to end neural nets. If the car doesn’t know how to do something, video of that problem is fed into the model until the car learns. This is a much more generalized and generalizable solution. Waymo has remote tele-operators who can guide the car if it gets stuck. As Waymo scales, it has a “call center” behind it that needs to scale as well. Tesla will copy some of that for Robotaxi but its generalized approach will likely require much less manual intervention. Next, let’s talk about COST PER MILE: Ultimately this is what wins: lowest cost per mile of an autonomous car. It is possible for Tesla to get this cost quite low, somewhere between $0.21 and $0.28 per mile, depending on the cost of the car ($25k to $45k). Meanwhile, Waymo has a much harder path getting to such a low cost given the very expensive sensor package and the fact that it must pay a margin to an automaker, chip manufacturer (i.e., no vertical integration), and remote monitor (human). At scale, this is problematic, and there is no chance Waymo can match Tesla’s low cost per mile. Hopefully this clears up what Elon meant when he said, “Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla. This will be obvious in hindsight.” @elonmusk @tesla_ai @aelluswamy @yunta_tsai















