Steve Yates (葉望輝)

In 2023, more Americans died from fentanyl and opioid poisoning than during the entire Vietnam War. But the fentanyl crisis is no accident—it is a deliberate act by the CCP, aided by criminal cartels that operated with impunity along the southern border for four years.

Announcing this "intelligence assessment" that China "is not planning to invade Taiwan by 2027" is completely pointless. "Currently no plan" means NOTHING in a system where one man can order the ships to sail tomorrow if there's a window of opportunity. The real Chinese clock isn't 2027, although the symbolism of the 100th anniversary of the PLA is nice. It's whenever capability meets opportunity meets perceived weakness, triggered by some unknown escalating factor. Nobody in history has ever reliably nailed the exact timing of a major invasion years out. Plans in Beijing can flip in weeks based on economics, US elections, domestic purges, or a sudden window of opportunity. Bear in mind also the information warfare landscape. China's Taiwan play has always been to weaponize ambiguity as the CCP has always preferred "peaceful" coercion first through economic strangulation, cognitive ops, and constant military harassment to wear Taiwan (and the world) down. This "no 2027 invasion" assessment lets Xi keep building the amphibious fleet, hypersonics, and blockade tools without triggering panic-level Western rearmament. It buys breathing room while China's economy wobbles and PLA purges expose readiness gaps. Beijing's strategy doesn't resemble a Normandy-style landing; it's more death by a thousand cuts until resistance collapses. So don't let this fool you that the urgency is gone. Yes, recent PLA house-cleaning and economic and demographic headwinds affect the window, as do recent US actions in Venezuela and Iran. My guess is that the window has been delayed, but the tail risk has increased. This report risks lulling Congress, markets, and allies into underestimating the adversary's willingness to roll the dice. It's a pretext for policy makers to ease off the Taiwan arms packages, slow AUKUS, and chase trade deals. Tl;dr: This report conveys no useful information. Nothing has changed about the fundamentals. The threat is still driven by Xi's ideology and quest for legacy and China's military trajectory.

🇨🇳 China sentences pro-democracy newspaper owner Jimmy Lai to 20 years in prison. 🇨🇳 China sits on the U.N. Human Rights Council.