@Vulpescap What do you need? (no need to venmo anything)
English
Biotech Pharma Investor
1K posts
Biotech Pharma Investor
@Stmkrs
MD. Biotech investing. SA author. I also post in X and substack
Katılım Kasım 2021
159 Takip Edilen566 Takipçiler
To anyone on here with access to UpToDate: I will venmo you $50 if you send me a few downloads
English
$CMMB at $1.5 is valued at 1/4 of the PIPE price, 1/2 of the warrants amd 1/4-1/5 of the CVR potential...
Biotech Pharma Investor@Stmkrs
$CMMB New info in the 13D yesterday CVR includes - $10M for approval in RA - $40M for progressing to a ph3 in PSC
English
$CMMB New info in the 13D yesterday
CVR includes
- $10M for approval in RA
- $40M for progressing to a ph3 in PSC
English
@Lord_of_Biotech Good data in neoadjuvant
Good institutions.
PIPE at premium
Series A at premium (triggered at 2H 2027 interim)
Series B at $5.
Large TAM
But I agree it will probably not last up here
English
Is there a good reason why $AGEN trades at 5.40 and above the prefunded exchange price, Series A warrant exchange price and Series B warrant exchange price?
English
$agen wondering if the warrants contain a price reset mechanism. If yes, it is an ugly financing, if no, this would be a positive
English
@monaco_biotech $IPSC a big competitor (and may prove better)
English
@Foxy2894674 @Biotech_AI @ErikOtto2 CMMB shareholders will get a CVR (details and terms not known yet) for any cash received for legacy indications.
The lack of a deal so far says a lot.
On the other hand they will now be a US company and in stronger negotiating position. A backloaded deal is a possible scenario
English
@Biotech_AI @ErikOtto2 Is the PSC indication dead? $CMMB I thought rhey were talking to partners? I am very confused.
English
@Stmkrs That is probably wrong. Its more like $40-$50M somewhere
English
@ElMonoGran42994 You are right about this. Merged company will be trading well above cash (based on currently implied MC).
But this is what those institutions are paying for.
And cash runway through major PoC data in a multi-B TAM.
English
@Stmkrs 7.2 million ADR gives 32%, so total # of shares around 23 million. 36 million cash after merger means cash/share of 1.55, which is the cash floor. 70% of that would be around 1 usd. Just for perspective on downside.
English
$CMMB I think the sell-off yesterday is very irrational.
Vast majority of CMMB shares were owned by retail who were expecting sth else and/or don't understand this merger deal. Here is a summary of my assessment:
substack.com/profile/160232…
Am I missing sth??
English
@ElMonoGran42994 Well those institutions are paying $30M at 3x the current CMMB valuation (and get warrants at $1.5x current valuation).
You are assuming there is 0% chance they succeed in RA and you are assuming they get nth (CVR worthless) for legacy indications.
English
@Stmkrs If you divide the total cash by fully diluted count, you get an idea of cash/share. It could trade at 70% of that cash floor for quite awhile
English
@ElMonoGran42994 CMMB is now moving to US and focusing on RA indications.
They dont need a big upfront deal for PSC. Even a small upfront (e.g. $10M + backloaded milestones) is great at current prices.
Even if CVR is worthless I think as retail get out the price will climb closer to the PIPE
English
@Stmkrs PSC is dead whilst the CEO faked otherwise. That is a severe breach of trust. They’ll burn through cash and a 70 million valuation may prove too high. That said, there is a PIPE & warrants meaning some must see value in the new assets. So could be a buying opportunity 🤷♂️
English
@Stmkrs A CVR for a drug that no body wants? CEO touting partnership discussions for years but fails to deliver…..
English
$CMMB Very low institutional ownership so likely retail selling?
(I am far from an expert in merger agreements but help me understand why it makes senss to price CMMB at 1/3 of the PIPE and at 2/3 of the corresponding warrants + ignoring the CVR potential)??
Biotech Pharma Investor@Stmkrs
$cmmb what am I missing?? seems oversold right now
English
$REPL also Adcom letter will probably be brutal having the CRL
Biotech Autist@BiotechAutist
1/ I'm once again SHORT $REPL. Market thinks this rushed setup is gonna end in approval. It's a trap. Their biggest champions accidentally permanently banned themselves from the room. Here is the math on a regulatory suicide🧵
English