CrossAssetTrader

@Trader_Bran Why would long-term yields go up if Powell cuts in September?

Jackson hole is now effectively a Live Fed meeting. Market is mostly 100% expecting a rate cut at the sep meeting. Now Powell was pretty insistent at the last FOMC meeting that the labor market remained solid so long as unemployment doesn’t tick higher. Which it hasn’t . So if Powell doesn’t plan to cut in Sep he will have to push back hawkish at Jackson hole . However should he follow market consensus and succumb to political pressure then bond holders at the long end will get smoked ! Pick your problem Mr Powell. You want a Trump headache or a bond vigilante headache ?!!!

🚨 Lithuania's Financial Crime Investigation Service has launched a probe into #crypto startup Bankera following an OCCRP and @15minlt investigation. The inquiry centers on evidence suggesting that Bankera’s co-founders used a portion of the funds raised in the ICO to finance luxury real estate purchases through a Vanuatu-based bank they secretly acquired occrp.org/en/news/lithua…

@StinkStrype @jbamban @Militarydotcom @JDVance He acts like a man with a massive chip on his shoulder. He doesn't act like a statesman. So his background - unfortunately - has shaped him into the unconfident, over-reactive, thin-skinned and insecure person he is proving to be in Trump's administration.

@StockBondTrader @jbamban @Militarydotcom @JDVance And denigrating his military service is equally unbecoming. He served honorably in the U.S. Marine Corps, which by itself represents a level of achievement and sacrifice most of his countrymen will never know. He was on a team; don't belittle him for not being the QB.

Space Force Commander in Greenland Sent Out Email Breaking with Vance After His Visit buff.ly/bNks0Xr

@jbamban @Militarydotcom JD Vance @JDVance is a hillbilly who was raised by his grandparents (rather than his own parents): deep psychological scars. In the military, he was a PHOTOGRAPHER who never engaged in front-line combat. Again: even though he postures as an ex-marine, he was a PHOTOGRAPGER.

Col. Susan Meyers, the commander of the 821st Space Base Group who also oversees the Pentagon's northernmost military base, sent a March 31 message to all personnel at Pituffik seemingly aimed at generating unity among the airmen and Guardians, as well as the Canadians, Danes and Greenlanders who work there, following Vance's appearance. "I do not presume to understand current politics, but what I do know is the concerns of the U.S. administration discussed by Vice President Vance on Friday are not reflective of Pituffik Space Base," Meyers wrote in the email, which was communicated to Military.com. 👉Meyers became the commander of Pituffik's 821st Space Base Group in July

@francomeni @theScore @Sportsnet I personally cannot believe he didn't get re-signed at Avs. He was instrumental in helping them clinch the Cup and reached his full potential there. It was a win-win, the Avs kept winning with Kadri on the roster. Colorado's performance went down after he left.

@theScore @Sportsnet yea, but wasn't good enough to stay in Toronto. Kadri wasted 3/4 years of his career under stupidity in Toronto coming off juniors going to the AHL, terrible time for him and for me who's always supported him. I am not surprised he can do this, underappreciated but world class.

KADRI IS SO CLUTCH!!! 🚨 HIS 300TH CAREER GOAL SECURES THE W IN OT FOR CALGARY. 🔥 (🎥: @Sportsnet)

@JDVance I think this explains your views well, @JDVance :

But let’s be direct: there are many countries who are volunteering (privately or publicly) support who have neither the battlefield experience nor the military equipment to do anything meaningful.

This is absurdly dishonest. I don’t even mention the UK or France in the clip, both of whom have fought bravely alongside the US over the last 20 years, and beyond.

@Defundmedianow @elonmusk Raising your boys to be men? Real men, who saw combat, would never stop military aid to Ukraine whilst the country is still fending off Russian aggression. Ukrainian men will bleed to death in the trenches without US military support. Only a real saddistic person celebrates that.

@elonmusk Bye Zelenskyy!

#grok3 lists #Musk, #Trump and #Carlson as top 5 liers on X 😂😂😂😂😂

I think we can safely conclude, that if the fat, ugly, #McDonald eating #American keyboard worriers, "who eant their money back, including interest", would have lived 100 years ago, Nazi Germany would never have been defeated. #Ukraine

@donalt Trump got schooled by Macron during their joint press conference. In the meantime, US sided with Rusdia and China at the UN security council, turning their backs on their ling-standing sllies UK and France.

GM, just woke up, what's new?

@TheJoeySwoll Joey. If you played hockey, you'd need no gear :)

Congratulations to Team Canada our brothers and sisters to the North on the big win. Team USA played hard but it wasn’t our night. What I love is the amount of people that got to experience the incredible sport of hockey for the first time because of this game and are now fans.

@RealJessica05 Did Churchill hold elections in the UK during WW2? Did the US demand that the United Kingdom give away half its natural resources in exchange for US military support? I hate wokeness, this has nothing to do with wokeness. Either you are a Russian troll or you are deluded.

@Trader_Bran I still also favor long Gilts. Been perfing ok so far. Is a longer-term view though (till the end of Q1 or Q2 2025).

@StockBondTrader Shatz

European 5Y breakeven lowest levels since late 2022! Wakey Wakey ECB. Your mandate is once again in jeopardy! You were slow to hike in 2021, now you slow to cut! Market clearly telling you that inflation expectations are at risk of becoming unanchored. Yet you sit there 200bp in restrictive territory! EURUSD at parity in Q1 2025 #trading #traders #EUR

@naomiseibt @redpillinvestin @naomiseibt what's really striking is that you guys DO have experience with propaganda from the past (i.e. East Germany, as you point out). Why is the situation in Germany so bad? Your neighbors in Czechia seem much more pragmatic (people say because of their past experience...)

@redpillinvestin The legacy media are faking their popularity. Reminds me of East Germany in the past…

Did SPIEGEL and WELT get the same script? 🤣 ultra-right conspiracy theorist Kash seems to be causing quite the outrage!

@asegpi The guy is a lunatic...

TOP is confirmed now lol... $BTC

@petergarnry I see, so an option on potential earnings from parts of the business that might or might not materialize. Interesting take, thank you.

@StockBondTrader Sure. So the difference between the market value and the estimated value of Tesla’s FCF using a sensible forecasting period of around 7-8 years gives you a residual that is the market’s implied real options value. Those are autonomous driving, robots etc.

Tesla has the highest real options value embedded into its valuation of any company in the world. That in itself will drive excessive volatility of the future stock price. $TSLA #Equities

@Trader_Bran Ps: fair to say my investment horizon is at least a few months. So prob longer than most people who trade actively.

@Trader_Bran 2 / with equities, I think stocks outside the US will soon suffer from Trump protectionism and trade wars. With US stocks, I don't have a high conviction that we'll go much higher in 2025, from the record 6k on #SPX we see now. So my bet is return on bonds > stocks in 2025 🤷

Real yields are falling off a cliff in US! This is major driver of the rally into year-end and BTC and Gold to continue into record territory! More importantly, bond markets are likely to sell-off hard into 2025 as investors simply do not want to hold an asset that isnt pay sufficient yields. Watch Daily Market Run down to understand real-yields and market implications. #DayTrading #Daytrader #futurestrading youtube.com/live/Xm9iTdeJZ…