Storey Clayton

Two buttons appear before you. You are forced to press one without consulting anyone else. MAGENTA kills every other human on the planet, but you survive. CORNFLOWER kills you only, but every other human on the planet survives. What do you press?

@DarrenTrain @SethAbramson Likely version of that convo: Stranger 1: So where are you from? Stranger 2: Delaware. Stranger 1: I'm sorry.

@StoreyClayton @SethAbramson Conversation that has never happened and never will happen. Two strangers meet at a hotel bar while on vacation. Stranger 1: So where are you from? Stranger 2: Delaware Stranger 1: Oh really? Cool!

If it's possible to feel embarrassment while one is alone, that's how I felt staring at this map for several minutes and trying to find all seven missing contiguous American states Crikey that was painful

@MarinerMuse Isn't Donovan back imminently? So this is fine for another couple games.

Fun story, ok enough bench piece, but just cannot be an every day player on a team that’s ostensibly competing for a championship We’ve officially reached the threshold where any more of Rivas every day is unacceptable

@EstateWill19959 @BobHenryRob @MatthewLeeRosen If y'all don't see the difference between having a line between a gray compromise buffer zone and an all-or-nothing black-and-white line, then yes, it's hard for us to bridge the gap. My system does solve the problems I see with the status quo.

@BobHenryRob @StoreyClayton @MatthewLeeRosen He sees what you're doing (correctly pointing out that his system will not solve the problem) but somehow still disagrees.

In this instance, less than 0.5% of the ball has actually touched zone. It does't seem justifiable to reverse the umpire's call. The ABS system calculates inches & surface data. I think the rules should be adjusted, so that 25% of the ball must be in the zone for a strike.

@bawfuls @MatthewLeeRosen I just don't feel like this level of precision is what baseball is or should be about. Similar to the people now being called out at second base because their spike separated from the bag by a thousandth of an inch for a thousandth of a second.

@StoreyClayton @MatthewLeeRosen Also I don't agree ABS is only for the blatant misses. I want to see a pitcher absolutely paint the corner, that's impressive! That's their goal! I want to see a batter spit on a pitch that misses by 0.1" and be rewarded for it!

@DarrenTrain I dunno. It's certainly possible! I feel like I've seen him play every day for a week and go 0fer. Baseball is weird.

@StoreyClayton I am not going to spend hours doing the analysis on his entire career but I would bet a lot of money that I if I did it would show conclusively that he hits MUCH better when he is playing regularly than sitting every other day. This is true of most hitters but him even more so.

I love Raley but we need to trade him to a team that is willing to play him every day and not PH for him. I can't hit unless he gets consistent playing time.

@BobHenryRob @EstateWill19959 @MatthewLeeRosen I see what you're trying to do, but that's not it. It's about having a buffer zone precisely so the exactness of the line-drawing has lower stakes.

@StoreyClayton @EstateWill19959 @MatthewLeeRosen So you would draw the line at 10%?

@RockyLotito @wassie I think something you miss as a cynic is that people who press blue do not see it as a risky move. You can analogize it to putting your life on the line all you want, but that is not how we see it.

@StoreyClayton @wassie It's not an abstract analogy, it's literally the evidence that you would not press blue. You can go be a humanitarian worker in a warzone right now and save real lives today. But you don't because of the extreme risk to yourself. It's the definition of virtue signaling.

Red or Blue? Its easy to vote on twitter, but what if you had skin in the game? 50$ to press a button. >50% Blue = Everyone gets their money back. <50% Red = Only red get their money back. wassie.io/button

@rivertolake @wassie Oh fun.

@StoreyClayton @wassie It's a rick roll

@RockyLotito @wassie Whether or not that would be the case has little to do with a referendum with immediate choices and immediate consequences. There's lots of abstract analogies. Anyone getting in a motor vehicle ever in their life, for example, is mashing the blue button every time.

@StoreyClayton @wassie There are people dying today, are you out risking your life to help them? If not then you are absolutely not hitting the blue button if it were actually in front of you, because you already hit the red button every day. So does almost everyone.

@JulioIsKing44 Maybe Tatis really stopped taking the roids this year?

Guy who only hits singles Guy who’s only on the team to steal bases Guy who is one of the best power hitters in the league Make it make sense

@BobHenryRob @EstateWill19959 @MatthewLeeRosen No, you have a marginal zone (say, less than 10% of the ball in the zone or the ball less than 10% of a ball diameter out of the zone) be a "call stands" gray area. If it's in that zone, the original ump call stands and no one loses a challenge.

@StoreyClayton @EstateWill19959 @MatthewLeeRosen So how is the gray area decided? You actually want an exact duplicate of a pitch to be called a ball sometimes and a strike other times by the ABS system?

@RockyLotito @wassie You are dead wrong, but for reasons that don't surprise me. Hope you're doing well.

@StoreyClayton @wassie You could launch a global "Press Blue" campaign that lasts a hundred years and you would never, ever get the global population to crack even 10% pressing blue. So enjoy dying if that's what you'd choose to do, your vote would be less than worthless but you'll feel good doing it.

@BobHenryRob @EstateWill19959 @MatthewLeeRosen Again, this argument is true if the situation is ALL OR NOTHING. It falls apart if there's a gray area.

@StoreyClayton @EstateWill19959 @MatthewLeeRosen I think you're missing the point. *Wherever* the line is drawn, one pitch is a ball, and one pitch 0.00000000000000000000000000001" closer to the zone is a strike. If we said "That is so close; it should be a ball too." we could do that until the strike zone shrinks to nothing.

@Ansury567031 @codecovenant This is comically absurd. Red is not the default. Non-voters cannot be presumed to all go one way. They're not on Twitter, they haven't seen the poll! Have you ever heard of a sample size?

@StoreyClayton @codecovenant Blue never won. It counts votes. I've seen only 300k 56%. Well red is smaller but non votes is in the millions counted against blue. They and blue both lose and you don't even need the math as the difference is so large and lopsided. You needed almost half the non vote to live.

Logistically it's absolutely more likely to get red to 100% as opposed to getting blue above 30%. I'm a war veteran, I put my life on the line. Not many others will. There's 0% chance you get enough blue votes ever.

@EstateWill19959 @BobHenryRob @MatthewLeeRosen They're documentedly accurate to "1/6 of an inch." That is far bigger than the amount of that pitch that purportedly nicked the strike zone. nytimes.com/athletic/71424…

@StoreyClayton @BobHenryRob @MatthewLeeRosen Okay so you're just making shit up now

@EstateWill19959 @BobHenryRob @MatthewLeeRosen It won't, because those balls will look nothing like this. Look, you either believe there is such a thing as a borderline call or you don't. It feels incomprehensible to me to believe that there is no such thing.

@StoreyClayton @BobHenryRob @MatthewLeeRosen Whatever amount of gray area you choose, there will be calls that are .5% from the gray area. It will be the exact same argument

@gfodor @wokenessucks "They lack the self-awareness to realize that if they were actually in that situation in real life, they’d push the red button too." How is that not them saying they're wrong about themselves, exactly?

@StoreyClayton @wokenessucks He’s not saying they’re wrong about themselves, he’s saying the opposite actually. He’s saying they are confident in themselves, but they are wrong about what would actually happen in a real run of this globally. I agree with this last point, I believe red would largely win.

The problem with the red button/blue button thing is that blue button people still live with this filter over their eyes that distorts reality. They lack the self-awareness to realize that if they were actually in that situation in real life, they’d push the red button too. That’s exactly why they get so mad and take it personally when we don’t see it their way. They call us immoral and evil. But we see the world realistically. They don’t. When you factor in the other 8 billion people on Earth and the raw fear of possibly dying, there’s zero chance 51% hit the blue button. 95–98% of people would take the guaranteed safe option and choose red. We know this because we deal in reality, not fantasy. For us red-button people, pushing blue is suicide. Is it sad that out of 8 billion some will inevitably hit blue and die? Yes. But if blue is suicide, I’m still hitting red. The vast majority of blue button people lack the self-awareness to know how they’d actually react under pressure. They’re the morons who die first in horror movies.

@RockyLotito @wassie That is the Smug Red Meme, for sure. Given that blue can't lose polls on the most self-oriented website from a primary audience from the most selfish country on the planet, I'm not concerned.

@StoreyClayton @wassie "A majority of people feel similarly" shows exactly why this question is a basic reasoning and statistical literacy test that every blue presser fails lol

@RockyLotito @wassie It's not about the stakes for you, it's about the stakes for other people. What I press for $50 or a chocolate bar might be random, but I am never ever going to risk a vote to kill others. A majority of people feel similarly.

@StoreyClayton @wassie It's meant to show the ridiculousness of the "game theory" that leads to blue pressers. Even when the stakes are low red obviously wins, but somehow when pressing blue is a risk to your life you can count on 51% of the world to choose it?