Strategic Moose

@adrusi Alternately, it’s just that the weirdly dreamlike videos get posted and commented on, while the utterly unrelatable ones get ignored.

evidence for ai models converging on the same cognitive structures as humans

@AdamBLiv AI slop. There’s no way you wrote all that out yourself.

Imagine being a hedge fund manager trying to price risk while the President sounds like he’s freelancing World War III from the toilet. Nobody knows what the plan is. There is no plan. The plan is vibes, caffeine, and one man screaming into his phone like the manager of a failing Atlantic City steakhouse. You open your brokerage app and everything is red, except oil and defense contractors, because of course. Of course. Every time civilization starts wheezing, Exxon walks out in a tuxedo with a martini and Lockheed buys another island. The Nasdaq looks like it got hit in the face with a folding chair because suddenly the market remembered that semiconductors do, in fact, require an operating global economy and not just TED Talk confidence and a black turtleneck. And Trump, God bless him, is tweeting like a guy who was handed six different war briefings, understood none of them, and decided to freestyle foreign policy from the toilet. “We may be winding down.” Great! “We may obliterate their power plants in 48 hours.” Fantastic! “Oil sanctions are off, but also maybe on, but also maybe we’re taking the island.” Beautiful. Just beautiful. This is why the market can’t price anything. You can’t build a discounted cash flow model around a national mood swing. There’s no Bloomberg terminal function for “presidential posting episode.” There’s no options chain for “what if the leader of the free world says three contradictory things before lunch and Brent crude goes vertical while JPMorgan analysts begin quietly chewing through their own ties.” The average investor is just sitting there like, “I bought an index fund because they told me it was safe.” Safe? SAFE? Your “safe” portfolio is now directly connected to whether some 28-year-old NSC staffer can stop a rage-post from becoming a missile exchange before the European open. That’s your diversification. Congratulations. You own a basket of companies whose earnings now depend on whether Hormuz is open and whether Trump has confused deterrence with posting. And Wall Street still does the same little dance every time. “Well, maybe this is already priced in.” Oh really? Already priced in? Was the possibility of a full-blown oil shock, shipping disruption, inflation resurgence, and presidential caprice “priced in,” Chad? Was it in the spreadsheet next to “soft landing” and “AI productivity miracle”? No, it wasn’t. What was priced in was endless delusion, infinite buybacks, and the belief that history had ended because the S&P had a nice quarter. Now everybody’s doing that thing they do where they act shocked that war affects markets. “Wow, yields are up. Wow, energy’s squeezing margins. Wow, rate cuts are less certain.” Yes, genius. That tends to happen when the world’s most important oil chokepoint turns into a live-action Call of Duty map and the White House communications strategy is basically drunk casino owner at 2 a.m. This is the real genius of the modern empire. It can’t build a train station, can’t balance a budget, can’t explain what victory looks like, but it can absolutely vaporize your 401(k) with a single weekend news cycle. That part works flawlessly. That part is incredible. The only truly efficient American institution left is panic transmission. We get chaos from the battlefield to your Robinhood account faster than Amazon gets paper towels to your porch. And the best part is that by Monday morning every idiot on television will sit there with perfect hair and say, “Markets dislike uncertainty.” Wow. Thank you, Socrates. What a contribution. They dislike uncertainty. Incredible analysis. We’ve spent billions on financial infrastructure just to reinvent the village idiot pointing at the sky going, “Storm bad.” That’s where we are. The market is a hostage, oil is a weapon, diplomacy is a hallucination, and the President is posting like a divorced nightclub owner who just found the nuclear football in a Denny’s booth. Everybody wants calm, nobody has control, and your portfolio is being managed by events that sound fake even when they’re real. Absolute clown planet. Premium clown planet. Goldman Sachs clown planet with institutional custody.

@feelsdesperate Can we figure out a way to wind down funding on education so that we can bomb Iran even more?

I would rather drop $200 billion of gold bricks into the ocean than give it to teachers.

@aswren Wow, spice must be an allegory for something really exotic and spiritual! The actual allegory:

‘Dune is about religious fundamentalism and the danger of charismatic lead-“ Actually it’s about the importance supply chain diversification

@pamvonhadder 80’s corporate retreat

how do you call this architecture design style?

@dsonoiki Why do they always keep having more kids and doing more things with their families? Are they stupid? Don’t they know they can get wasted on a weeknight and have the same conversations with the same friends that they were having 15 years ago?

How do people in the suburbs genuinely look forward to Friday night with the wife and kids, Saturday morning soccer tournament, Sunday church, and call that a weekend? Like you really moved out of the city just to find love, joy, and happiness? 😂😂😂😂😂

@DiaTSLAPLTR @NoLimitGains No one advocates buying all in a single lump sum when the market is at ATH. Every financial advisor will recommend DCA and continuing contributions, as well as dividend reinvestment.

2000 to 2013 is the most important lesson Wall Street never teaches. You bought the most diversified index in the world, held through two catastrophic crashes, never panic sold, did everything right by the textbook, and inflation quietly took half your real purchasing power while you waited to break even. This is why asset allocation is not just about what you own. It is about understanding which decade you are living in and positioning accordingly before it starts, not after.

If you invested in the S&P 500 in 2000 and held it until 2013, you broke even. 13 years, no profit, and you lost 50% to inflation. Think about it for a second.

@ScrimboSaggins Birth of my kids and it’s not even close, man. Although there was also that one day where my wife got her own water before bed. Still riding that high…

Your best day ever was prolly some random Saturday where you drank on your back porch with your college roommates and you never realized it

@TourSwingsTommy I tell everyone that I hit about 275-280. Then I slice the ever loving fuck out of the ball and they all say “Holy shit if that had gone straight it would have gone like 300 yards” And then I tee off with a 4 iron the rest of the round.

If you’re playing with someone who tells you they hit their driver 210 yards, you’re about to have a great round. Means the guy has zero ego and knows his game. It’s mind-blowing how many guys out there supposedly drive the ball 270 yards. Where are they?

@Brandon93Smith Only look in someone else’s cup to make sure there is enough in it. If you can follow that axiom, you will live a happy, happy life.

You can just enjoy watching others get their wins. Some guy my age will sell his company for $7 million next week. Some guy my age will celebrate 6 months of sobriety, and his first job that pays $25 an hour next week. I’m happy for both of these guys.

The 34yo dad spending a morning out with his wife and toddler thinks he’s the luckiest guy in the world. The 34yo guy who hung out until 2am last night with a Zoomer thinks he’s the luckiest in the world. The 34yo guy who lives in the country, hunts/fishes whenever he wants, and has an 90k truck thinks he’s the luckiest guy in the world. They’re all correct.

@SlumRNA_Dog @youngwerther123 This is what men actually want.

@youngwerther123 Just gimme that bitch that wakes up in the morning and starts cooking some eggs

This is all fine and cute until you have kids and then it’s unfortunately all hands on deck for about 6 years per kid (concurrently, of course) so it’s best not to marry some fairy princess broad that does female weaponized incompetence (chronic fatigue) if you want children.

@mister_shroom_2 @uncledoomer That was a year or so, not 6 years.

@StrategicMoose @uncledoomer Not for those of us who were in school in New York

it's not their fault, but a lot of people got one shotted by media that convinced them that the partying that they do in their 20s was the end, rather than the means by which they meet a mate, and enter into the phase of family formation in their 30s.

@mister_shroom_2 @uncledoomer Shit was closed for like 6 weeks man, what the fuck are you talking about?

@uncledoomer What if Covid lockdowns and health issues took away 6 years of socialization from my life? Do I get to extend this limit beyond 30?

@MurrayHillGuy1 Aside from the resenting your wife thing, this is objectively the best life.

The American dream 30 year mortgage 2 SUVs 2 kids you do everything for a golden retriever a wife you low key resent a thrilling Saturday afternoon at HomeGoods Dinner at Chili’s what a life 🔥

@excesstential I just got done harvesting all the eggs my chickens laid last night. It’s been pretty icy out lately, so I’ll load them all up and try to get them into the house in one go.

i think “decontextualized idiom in plain speak” has the highest batting average of tweet type for me. i mean this tweet is gospel at this point

@TheMJLawrence @GavMcCracken It’s the fucking Treasury. Short squeezes by definition are temporary. If you can survive the squeeze, you don’t lose money. I cannot guarantee you, the US treasury can survive the squeeze.

@GavMcCracken This squeeze is gonna hurt the treasury. We should force Trump to personally refund the losses they’re going to sustain.

It's a joke that WTI is still under $100: The world's largest oil company ceased all drilling (Aramco). There's been a massive loss of secondary oil products from gas fields that were disintegrated. This is not a free market & there will be consequences due to this suppression

@MattMorseTV I did not have Tucker Carlson inadvertently painting Israel as a bulwark against the NWO on my 2026 bingo card.

Chinese "professor" Jiang says that the United States should willingly forfeit it's role as the #1 global superpower to China and Russia, to which Tucker Carlson agrees and then blames Israel for preventing that from happening. Dude, what happened to Tucker?

@CElder556 @grfarmgoat @anymanfitness No, this dumb chick on the internet who clearly doesn’t understand how serving sizes work actually is able to violate the second law of thermodynamics and generate mass from a caloric deficit.

@grfarmgoat @anymanfitness Mathematically and physically impossible unless your daily maintenance calorie needs were already 1200. Which as an adult would also be impossible.

"1200 calories is starvation" is a psyop. If you are: - a woman - have a desk job - short - over 40 (perimenopause territory) Your maintenance calories are between 1500-1600 If you want to lose fat, you need to create a deficit somehow

@DeepDishEnjoyer WTI is settled with delivery in fucking Oklahoma, Brent is cash settled. How much do you think Asian refineries value a barrel of WTI 5,000 miles away right now?

amazing how the wti-brent futures spread widens whenever the front month CL future is about to hit 100 isn't it :)

@roddreher @tnajournal We have to bring back bullying in schools.

Fantastic piece of cultural reporting by Robert Mariani in @tnajournal. He writes abt "Diner Gothic" as an emerging culture among downwardly mobile American young people. Really fascinating, and explains what I see when I go to Walmart back home visiting. thenewatlantis.com/publications/a…