Merlin Strategy

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Merlin Strategy

Merlin Strategy

@StrategyMerlin

Polling and Strategic Insights | [email protected] | British Polling Council member

Katılım Nisan 2025
8 Takip Edilen740 Takipçiler
Merlin Strategy retweetledi
Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
'Centrism' is often used to describe voters who think things like this: - small state - trust institutions +msm - trust government - pro-business - pro-immigration (with controls) -loosely pro-globalisation The problem is they only make up approx 5% of the electorate
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Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
We have 5+ parties, all polling <30% of the vote. Voters are unhappy with their options. 4 in 10 say their voting for a party they don't like but see as their best option. This would mean a messy result + messy government. So should there be a return to the centre ground?
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Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
I've seen lots about young women going to the populist left at the same time as young men going to the populist right. Electorally speaking, young men aren't. Greens do better with u25 men then Reform. Boris Johnson had far more u25 men voting for him in 2019 than reform do now
Scarlett Maguire tweet mediaScarlett Maguire tweet media
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Merlin Strategy retweetledi
Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
✴️6 in 10 (58%) say they would find it difficult to date someone who disagreed on Gaza ✴️3 in 4 (74%) say the say the same about views of Donald Trump, with even more saying they wouldn't date someone who disagreed about social justice
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Merlin Strategy retweetledi
Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
Strikingly, young women are *a lot* more negative about the opposite gender than young men. ✴️U30 women are 3x as likely to hold a negative view of young men than the other way around ✴️Just 35% of u25 women hold a positive view, only 11% a very positive view
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Merlin Strategy retweetledi
Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
There is a 'Covid generation' ✴️ U25s are much more likely to think Covid had a significant impact on heir lives and opportunities. ✴️U25 women are much more likely to believe that "things are stacked against me, no matter how hard I try"
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Merlin Strategy retweetledi
Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
✴️Female graduates hold much more positive views about communism, feminism, socialism and extinction rebellion than non-graduates ✴️Grads are also more likely to back slavery reparations say we need more government intervention to ensure life is fair
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Merlin Strategy retweetledi
Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
Young middle class educated white women feel the most strongly about these issues. ✴️17% of ABC1 women have a positive view of capitalism compared to 32% of C2DE women ✴️ABC1 women more likely to think the economy works against them
Scarlett Maguire tweet media
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Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
✴️They think 43%-40% 'it is unfair some people have more than others and we should redistribute wealth' over 'people deserve to keep what is theirs, even if it means others have less' ✴️More negative than young men about their careers, earning potential and property
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Merlin Strategy retweetledi
Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
✴️Young women are 26 pts less favourable to capitalism than young men, and feel much more positively towards communism than capitalism. ✴️Women u25 dislike capitalism so much, they view it as (un)favourably as fascism. ✴️UK should pay slavery reparations by a 2-1 margin
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Merlin Strategy retweetledi
Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
On the cover of this week's @NewStatesman: Not the manosphere, but the femosphere? Gen-z women are in revolt against a country they don't like and don't think works for them. Thanks to @Will___lloyd for commissioning new research on angry young women @emilylawford 🧵👇
The New Statesman@NewStatesman

ANGRY YOUNG WOMEN by @emilylawford and @Scarlett__Mag It was a Wednesday night and seven members of the University of Leeds’ feminist society had invited me to join their book swap. I asked how they felt about the young men they knew. “I don’t care for them,” said a girl called Ruby imperiously. “They’re not bad people, but they refuse to call out their friends who make other girls uncomfortable. They’ll laugh at jokes that are sexist, racist, homophobic, they don’t care about political issues… I don’t think they like women a lot.” If a man is attracted to you, she said, he might talk about things like toxic misogyny. If he doesn’t fancy you, he won’t bother. “I feel like a lot of it is quite sexually motivated with men.” I asked if they’d consider dating a man with different political views. They all immediately said no. “I don’t think I’d even be friends with one,” said one girl. “They don’t see you as human.” Only one woman, Evelyn, admitted to having male friends (though she was worried this made her a “pick me”, trying too hard for male attention). Evelyn was concerned about what the men she knew were watching online. “The stuff that’s being said about women is crazy,” she said. “They’re getting all these reels, talking about, like, bad stuff about women. And I get reels of women saying bad stuff about men. I try to think, not all men are like this, but…” On the internet, women and men have never been more alienated from each other. While the toxic, often hard-right politics of the manosphere have been exhaustively documented, the new generation of female influencers are nearly as extreme – just on the other side of the political spectrum. The “femosphere” spans a range of tones: there are misandrist dating coaches who urge women to reject men altogether, and more explicitly progressive content creators who cover global and domestic politics. Exclusive polling by Merlin Strategy for the New Statesman reveals that young women, aged between 18 and 30, are by far the most progressive demographic in the UK. Young women are 26 percentage points less likely to feel positively about capitalism than young men, and much less likely to feel the economy works in their favour. Gen Z women are more likely to support causes such as feminism, environmentalism and anti-racism than young men. They also feel much more negatively towards young men than young men feel about them. I spent the last few months in search of the new left-wing young women. It wasn’t difficult – they were everywhere. But it all felt impossibly bleak. They weren’t excited about their futures. They didn’t like the men they knew, or the idea of those they didn’t. Men were just a threat who had the potential to harm or trap them. This will almost certainly make relationships harder: fewer than half of young women feel men understand them. Young women are much less likely than men to date people who disagree with their politics. People will get lonelier, and angrier. Young women are twice as likely to not want children as young men. And it’s getting worse. Women under 25 are most likely to believe things are “stacked against me, no matter how hard I try”. A significant majority of young women feel isolated from the rest of the country. The two main political parties aren’t reaching out to them specifically. Many women told me they feared a Reform government pressuring them to have babies. Many say they will vote for the Greens in the upcoming local elections, but few seem to believe that will make a difference. They don’t feel represented by mainstream politics, and they don’t think anyone cares. Cover art by Carl Godfrey

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Merlin Strategy retweetledi
Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
I'm not paying much attention to MRPs/seat projections but this is a good indicator of just how *messy* 2029 will be. 148 of GB seats being won on <30% of the vote, in 2024 there were just 7. Lowest winning share is 21%, with 4 parties on 20% or 21%...
Luke Tryl@LukeTryl

🆕 Our latest MRP for the Sunday Times estimates Reform UK would be just a seat shy of a majority and far above any other party but for the first time down on a previous MRP estimate. The Greens achieve their highest score we’ve recorded on 22 seats

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Merlin Strategy retweetledi
Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
Current Green voters are the most likely to group to say the Cost of Living is the most important issue facing the country
Scarlett Maguire tweet media
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag

Great writeup of the @StrategyMerlin @lfg_uk polling on energy, energy security and the cost of living. It might surprise some that Green voters are not emphatically against drilling in the North Sea, *but* the green coalition is changing as it expands, and prioritises Cost of Living far above everything else.

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Merlin Strategy retweetledi
Scarlett Maguire
Scarlett Maguire@Scarlett__Mag·
Great writeup of the @StrategyMerlin @lfg_uk polling on energy, energy security and the cost of living. It might surprise some that Green voters are not emphatically against drilling in the North Sea, *but* the green coalition is changing as it expands, and prioritises Cost of Living far above everything else.
Ben Walker@BNHWalker

Even today's Green voters aren't emphatically against fracking. But more so I think a reflection of the Greens' growing appeal. Their newfound fellow travellers aren't ideologues, who knew. #Echobox=1774947168" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">newstatesman.com/politics/uk-po…

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