Strider Elass

One of my favorite economists, Frederic Bastiat. Written in the 1800's just as applicable today: "Between a good and a bad economist, this constitutes the whole difference—the one takes account of the visible effect; the other takes account both of the effects which are seen and also of those which it is necessary to foresee. Now, this difference is enormous, for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the ultimate consequences are fatal, and the converse. Hence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good, which will be followed by a great evil to come, while the true economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil."

What in the world? The American Federation of Teachers and an advisor to Union-affiliated pension funds ( neither of which are investors in SpaceX) are both asking the SEC to investigate Musk World. The Lilliputians keep stringing thread. Impede and harass strategy.

"Data center expansion is not currently the predominant driver of increased electricity prices in U.S. states" spglobal.com/ratings/en/reg…

My piece on Fed Independence and Jerome Powell…Cry Me A River…Real Clear Politics Jerome Powell and So-Called 'Fed Independence' realclearpolitics.com/articles/2026/…

EARNINGS UPDATE AN ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE QUARTER: 322/500 companies in the S&P 500 have reported for Q1. 81.7% have surprised to the upside. Earnings are +25.9% from a year ago. Overall, consensus was estimating +12.4% YOY at start. Revenues are +10.9% YOY vs. +9.4% estimate at the start. $SPY $SPX $QQQ $VIX #SP500 #SPX500

If you’ve followed the guidance of financial professionals and built a well-diversified portfolio, there’s a possibility your performance in Q1 2026 may have exceeded that of the Index. Reason being the decline was largely driven by its biggest constituents, whose outsized weightings can disproportionately pull the Index lower. Consider this: the top-performing stock of the quarter, SanDisk Corporation, surged 167.7%. Yet with a weighting of just 0.14%, it contributed only 0.09 percentage points to the Index. Meanwhile, NVIDIA fell 6.5% but carries a roughly 7.6% weighting—dragging the Index down by about 0.5 percentage points, more than five times the impact of SanDisk’s gain, but in the opposite direction. In fact, 290 stocks outperformed the Index during the quarter. Equal-weighting all 500 companies would have produced a positive return of 0.7%, compared to the -4.3% decline in the traditional market-cap weighted Index.

In 2023, just 26.9% of stocks outperformed the Index, the narrowest market since at least 1995. That pattern persisted in 2024 and 2025, with only 27.7% and 30.5% of stocks beating the Index, among the most concentrated stretches in nearly three decades. Such narrow leadership hasn’t been seen since the late 1990s and that period was followed by a meaningful broadening in market participation. That shift may now be underway. In Q1 2026, 57.8% of stocks outperformed the Index. If sustained, this would mark the broadest market since 2009.

The “Magnificent 7”—Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, and Meta—currently make up a hefty 33.3% of the Index. Yet in Q1 2026, they were anything but magnificent. All seven posted losses and, together, drove almost all of the 4.3% decline in the Index. Microsoft led the drop, falling 23.3% and subtracting 1.4 percentage points on its own, the largest single negative contributor. Meanwhile, the other 493 companies collectively shaved just 0.45 percentage points off returns, highlighting how concentrated performance among the market’s giants continues to drive broader Index moves.

LimX Dynamics demonstrated autonomous unboxing with its humanoid robot Oli, requiring almost no human effort. The robot can step out of its crate and become fully operational on its own without manual setup. Multiple robots can be activated together and controlled through a single system, saving time and effort.

Private office construction just hit a new high in January—but the real story is in the revisions: data center construction surpassed general office for the first time ever back in November. Sums up employment perfectly...

What an incredible few days at @BandonDunesGolf everything was so wonderfully done. The real highlight was Ian McGregor’s hole in one at Pacific Dunes the final day…

YTD 287 of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500 index, or 57%, are beating the overall S&P 500 index total return of -0.5%. Broadening is occurring. So far YTD Sandisk Corp has seen the largest gain, up 148%. but it only has a 0.12% weighing in the S&P 500 index meaning it only contributed 0.08 percentage points to the overall return. NVDA on the other has the largest weighting at 7.64%. YTD its down 2.1% meaning its contributed -0.15 percentage points to the overall return, almost double Sandisk!

The S&P 500 index total return YTD is -0.5%. The Mag 7 are all negative... Here are the contributions to the -0.5% total return YTD: NVDA: -0.15 AAPL: -0.30 MSFT: -0.92 AMZN: -0.29 META: -0.05 GOOG: -0.12 TSLA: -0.24 Mag 7 total return contribution YTD: -2.07 The other 493 companies: +1.57

EARNINGS UPDATE: 492/500 companies in the S&P 500 have reported for Q4. 74.0% have surprised to the upside. Earnings are +13.3% from a year ago. Overall, consensus was estimating +8.4% YOY at start. Revenues are +9.4% YOY vs. +7.5% estimate at the start. Another very strong quarter! $SPY $SPX $QQQ $VIX #SP500 #SPX500

This is so well written. Highly recommend by @dollarsanddata ofdollarsanddata.com/signal-collaps…

@richkunkel @agenterob They may have indirectly paid them through higher prices for certain goods. But they won’t be getting the refunds!

@StriderElass @agenterob So does that insinuate that consumers didn’t pay the tariffs?? Or if they did are consumers due refunds?? 🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂

Well now we know SCOTUS has rules the IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional. I think it will still be a massive uphill battle for companies to get refunds, but it could be around $175 billion straight to their bottom lines!

@agenterob yes if they are refunded, almost all of it would flow to US companies who were who paid the tariffs.

@StriderElass Correct me if I'm wrong but weren't most of these paid by our middle men importers? so at least the money is staying in the US for the these payments

A new Atlas robot from Boston Dynamics, showcasing smooth, human-like movement like a belly dancer and advanced mobility beyond human limits x.com/MrLaalpotato/s…

Wow…

On Tuesday, the Census Bureau released its vintage 2025 population estimates, showing that U.S. population growth slowed markedly over the past year. Between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025, the population increased by just 1.8 million people, or 0.5%. This slowdown was driven primarily by a sharp and historically significant decline in net international migration, which fell to 1.3 million from July 2024 through June 2025, down from 2.8 million in the prior year. Each year, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates population changes resulting from three forces: births, deaths, and migration—both domestic and international. These components are measured through the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program and applied to a base population to produce updated annual estimates. In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we narrow the focus to solely domestic net migration between states, highlighting which states are attracting residents—and which are seeing people leave. To put today’s migration patterns into clearer context, we present three tables below that detail the latest domestic state-level flows and shifts across the country. ftportfolios.com/Commentary/Eco…