Stuyvesant Square

Managing Director's tweets designated "JGC"

@federalreserve But players should beware: it would be a huge mistake to presume they can rely on moral hazard. This government is not that of @GeorgeWBush that assuaged losses because an institution was assumed to be "too big to fail". Don't bet on it. JGC

I suspect that the market's heavily leveraged bet on AI is much the same as the bet on crypto and that both are fed by the echo excess liquidity the @federalreserve pushed into the market in 2008 and 2020. There is too much liquidity in the marketplace. -JGC

250 years ago today at around this hour and on this day at what is now City Hall Park, the first reading in NY of the Declaration of Independence.

#ICYMI: Our #jobs report and outlook for the #economy from last week's @BLS_gov data release, including our exclusive "Jobs Creation by Average Weekly Wages" chart and a discussion of the #MOU and @JDVance's efforts to get a deal with #iran. #oil #Hormuz seekingalpha.com/article/491959…

The former controller of the currency has asked that the president and Congress address the near $40 trillion debt. It is the ratio of #debt to #GDP that matters and right now, the USA is in a bad place. macrotrends.net/1381/debt-to-g…

America250 time capsule sealed until 2276: What did each state contribute? thehill.com/homenews/state…

@BLACKROCK CEO #LarryFink just reiterated what we said in our June #jobs report, saying that a "deal" with #Iran under the #MOU would move oil to $50/bbl. We predict a "peace dividend" of 3%+ and disinflation if a deal can be effected. @FareedZakaria seekingalpha.com/article/491959…

The G7 democracies should consider a new set of policies to deter China from attacking Taiwan. 1. US, EU, and Japanese troops prepositioned on the island as a tripwire deterrent. 2. Impose a toll or tax on China's global shipping to fund Taiwan's defense. 3. Loan Taiwan an independent nuclear deterrent, for example by allowing a Taiwanese naval officer to occasionally captain a U.S. ballistic missile submarine. China should not know when the officer is in charge of the sub. This uncertainty could be enough to fully deter an invasion. While some of these ideas may seem outside the box, new strategies are be required to stop China's plans. Old strategies did not stop Russia and Iran from attacking their neighbors. We shouldn't make the same mistake with China, which would lead to a third major war. Better deterrence is necessary. theepochtimes.com/opinion/how-to…

As Go the Peace Talks, So Goes the Economy. #iran #jobs #economy @JDVance seekingalpha.com/article/491959…

#BREAKING: June #jobs prints at just 57,000 vs. consensus of 120,000 and the unemployment rate is 4.2%. U8 drops to 7.9%. Not likely to have a big market effect on a traditionally light trading day. Watch for our full jobs report and outlook here later: shorturl.at/sNlfg

This exclusive from @Bloomberg about troubled private credit loans at @BlackRock's $TCPC is likely a harbinger of worse to come in the #W5000 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Imagine your family worked for a generation to save enough money to buy a brownstone occupied with rent stabilized tenants on the Upper West Side. The family financed the purchase with a mortgage from a bank based on the premise that rents and cash flow would at least keep pace with inflation so you could pay interest and principal on the mortgage and hopefully have some cash flow left as a return on your investment. While you had rent stabilized tenants, you were led to believe that the NYC Rent Guidelines Board would be required to adjudicate rental increases each year by taking a measure of the inflation of costs to own and operate a building and setting rental increases appropriately. You believed the RGB would do its job as the board is comprised of two representatives each for landlords and tenants and five independent representatives that represent the general public. Now, a new mayor @NYCMayor Mamdani is elected on the promise of freezing rents. There are about two million rent stabilized renters that benefit if rents are frozen so by promising frozen rents the new candidate for mayor buys votes and wins the election. The new mayor achieves his objective by stacking the RGB with directors who do not follow their obligations and simply vote for a rent freeze as a preordained conclusion as evidenced by the statements of an RGB director who resigned in protest for this very reason. Meanwhile, inflation in NYC is rampant in utilities, real estate taxes, insurance, repairs and maintenance, etc. and now your rents are frozen. Real estate is a high operating leverage business which means that frozen rents and inflating expenses will cause property cash flows to plummet and your after debt service cash flow to go negative. I expect therefore there will be hundreds if not thousands of small NYC property owners who are now or will shortly be underwater on their mortgages, and without any cash flow to maintain their assets. If you remember the images of the South Bronx burning in the mid 1970s, you can viscerally understand what is happening to small NYC real estate owners. While the rent freeze appears to be short-term good news (long term it will lead to poorly maintained apartments) for 2 million NYC renters, it is bad news for the 2 million or more renters in the 1 million market rate apartments in the City because a landlord-hostile market is not likely to add meaningfully more supply and market rents will likely continue to escalate at a high rate. All of this seems quite unfair and wrong unless I missing something? Why am I wrong? For disclosure: I do not own any NYC rental apartments.

PCE #inflation, reportedly the @federalreserve's preferred measure, printed at 3.4% this morning, its highest annual rate since November, 2023.

#BREAKING: #China imposes export bans on US rare earth companies in retorsion for US ban on exports of sensitive dual use equipment bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

#BREAKING: UK PM @Keir_Starmer expected to resign within moments as @10DowningStreet prepares for address. UK politics live: Sir Keir Starmer to address nation amid speculation over possible exit - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac… via @FT

ICYMI: May Jobs Creation Is Illusory - Details Show Weakness, War Remains Concern

The headline May #Jobs datapoint overstates the strength of the economy. And the #IranWar‌ war certainly won't bolster it. seekingalpha.com/article/491250…

May #jobs prints at 172,000 vs consensus of 85,000. Unemployment prints at 4.6%. U6 is 8.1% Look for our full jobs report, including our exclusive jobs by average payroll and outlook later today at @SeekingAlpha by our J.G. Collins seekingalpha.com/author/j-g-col…

The illusion of a Chinese real estate recovery has officially shattered. Fresh data from April 2026 reveals that the brief stabilization seen earlier this year was nothing but a mirage, as the property market relapsed into a severe decline. New home prices collapsed by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the sharpest drop in nearly a year. The underlying metrics paint an even grimmer picture of the damage: overall real estate investment plummeted by 13.7%, while new home sales by floor space contracted by another 10.2% as buyers completely pulled back. This is a systemic crisis for a sector that historically generated 25% to 30% of the nation's entire GDP. Because real estate serves as the primary store of wealth for the vast majority of Chinese households, this compounding crash is actively suffocating domestic consumption. With massive excess inventory left completely unsold, the ongoing relapse is draining developer finances, starving local government budgets of critical land-sale revenue, and dragging down overall economic growth. #ChinaEconomy #RealEstateCrash #GlobalFinance #EconomicData #HousingMarket