Pelle Frederiksen
8 posts
@RoaringRagnar Noone is late to HPC/AI... They maybe late than other companies... But the demand is gon a be so oooo huge that more companies than the ones that exist are needed... Simple
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My main concerns with $CLSK vs. $CIFR / $IREN.
I like CLSK‘s hashrate, and they demonstrated that they can scale up their Bitcoin mining operation.
I also like their partnership approach with the communities they operate in.
My main concern is that they are very late to HPC/AI.
They still need to announce their first contract, and after that they are 14-18 months away from their first HPC revenues.
So meaningful HPC revenues will only start in 2028, and it will take even longer until HPC surpasses their mining revenues.
Meanwhile, CIFR and IREN will be majority HPC in 2027, and will highly likely announce even more contracts until then.
THE BITCOIN PHARAOH@thebtcpharaoh
@RoaringRagnar I'm doing some work on CLSK - what are your main concerns about them?
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@YachtsOnTheReg7 @ParadisLabs Well, DRAM has not been approved by the EU, so I cannot buy it 😅
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@ParadisLabs The Japanese stock is already a holding in $DRAM
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Holy fk...
Kioxia are listing shares in the US?!?!!
"To grow its investor base and increase its corporate value"
LOL. If this alone isn't a bullish signal, then idk what is...
But then couple this w/ their stellar earnings + guidance from today, you have an unholy long imo.
Even at a ~153B MC + a 1,900% run in the stock since 1Y ago.
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs
Kioxia (285A) just put out sensational earnings & guidance. Very bullish validation of the NAND supercycle. I'm viewing this dip as a perfect buying opportunity to cost-avg up. Q4 FY25 (Jan-Mar 2026): - Revenue: ¥1,002.9B (QoQ +85%) - OP: ¥599.1B (margin 60%; QoQ +314%) - ASPs >2x'd QoQ; bit shipments down ~10% QoQ as planned for inventory control. - 8th-gen BiCS production now exceeds 5th-gen levels. Cash flow and balance sheet are pristine post-refinancing. Q1 Guidance (Apr-Jun 2026): - Revenue: +75% QoQ - OP: +117% QoQ; margin 74% - NP: +112% QoQ "AI inference servers driving overall NAND demand growth… interest is intensifying." "CY27: Demand anticipated to exceed supply." Memory keeps going up and up with every quarter... Pls DYOR.
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Not too shabby?
$IQE is now up 4x since in the past 3 months.
$MTSI paying off their debts does derisk the company long term.
I’m curious if anyone listened anon?
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Not exactly! I'm just a tad more familiar with photonic supply chains than I am with energy so I like picking potential winners. Just wanted to introduce $IQE into the equation like i did with $AXTI, so I could do a "Did you Listen Anon?" post 3 months later if it turns out well.
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@EnvestingEarly @StocksOnSpaces It has to be at the top, to be able to go higher 🤣
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@StocksOnSpaces Sam with the fomo, “pile in into
Semiconductors” nice advice while it’s literally at the top
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@StocksOnSpaces Is this stock talk hour ? Or we going to talk about earnings?
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@StocksOnSpaces @stocktalkweekly ER doc here. That comment hurt 😁
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@ParadisLabs @Samurai__Stock I'm also blocked from buying it, as Brussels think it's too dangerous and they have to protect me from it 😑
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@Samurai__Stock $DRAM is probs one of my favourite ETFs of recent times. Can't buy in UK though
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I know SK Hynix & Samsung are at ATHs.
But I still come to the conclusion that they'll be generational compounders for the next few years.
Since forecasts keep insisting on persistent supply deficits for 2027 to 2030 even.
Fwd P/E:
- SK hynix: ~5.3x
- Samsung: ~5.9x
I fully rotated out of Samsung around a month ago and put those funds into my SK Hynix position to sharpen port concentration.
Since SK Hynix just dominate HBM on another level + Felt like I was diversified for no reason?
E.g. $NVDA vera rubin orders + yield advantages over Samsung + pure-play vs. Samsung Elecs
So current mem holdings:
- SK hynix (~35%)
- $SNDK (~45%) - due to going up 10%+ everyday lol
- $MU (~15%)
- Nanya (~5%) - plan to sell soon tbh; since more conc'd on legacy DRAM + see some potential B/S strain down the line from capex this yr. Only up around 35% too (crap in memory-land)
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$SNDK earnings are just way too good...
Q3 earnings:
Revenue: $5.95B vs. ~$4.7B (252% Y/Y growth, 26% beat)
EPS: $23.41 vs. ~$14.5 (62% beat)
Gross Margin: ~78.4% vs. 67.3% (+1,110 bps vs. Est.)
Q4 2024 projections:
Revenue: $7.75B-$8.25B vs. ~$6.5B (23% above estimates)
EPS: $30-33 vs. ~$23 (37.0% above estimates)
Memory companies (disclosure I do own Sandisk) are a bit easier to price in ahead of time vs. names like $RDDT (off of traffic data).
Just purely from third party stuff like NAND price hike reports... so all the repricing does happen ahead of time, not on actual earnings.
Regardless, this is formal confirmation that memory companies are going brrr...
Astronomical earnings from memory players and they'll likely keep marching upward over this year.
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