arjun⚡️murti 3.0

Veriten, a research, strategy and investment firm, today announced the initial close of its second flagship energy venture fund with over $105 million in capital commitments. Veriten develops an unbiased, long-term global outlook for energy, power, and technology and invests in companies addressing critical industry challenges and opportunities. Fund II aims to capitalize on the success of the firm’s initial fund to accelerate scalable technology solutions for energy, power and industrial applications. “We are super excited about Fund II and fortunate to have such great partners and supporters. Our unique platform and team can deliver differentiated investment opportunities and value-added expertise in this exciting but rapidly changing and complex world. When it comes to making capital allocation decisions and investments, we aspire to be the global partner and platform of choice” said Veriten CEO and founder Maynard Holt. Veriten’s investments are central to the mission of identifying and scaling reliable, sustainable, and economic solutions that address operating challenges or capitalize on growth opportunities. Fund II will focus on investments that create broadly applicable solutions, which are aligned with our view of the future energy world, and have logical, multifaceted exit opportunities. Just as importantly, investments are centered on themes where Veriten and its network of leading energy, power and technology companies can provide meaningful strategic input and value. 📰 Read the full press release here: veriten.com/2026/05/verite…. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti #energyinvesting

We are in Anchorage, Alaska for the Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference and will film this week's #COBT live from the event. Hear from Veriten CEO Maynard Holt below about the next few exciting days. #AlaskaSustainableEnergyConference

"THE OIL PRICE IS WRONG because it doesn't match my supply/demand modeling" seems to be a persistent view among oil specialists over the past year or so. Pre-Iran War the complaint was that oil prices were too high because everyone was modeling massive oversupply. Included in that view was that somehow China stockpiling didn't count as demand and Saudi/OPEC was flooding the market. Who knows whether Saudi-China anticipated SoH closure (probably not) but it sure felt at the time (as we wrote) that it was a purposeful decision to move below-ground inventory in Saudi to above-ground stocks in China--a great decision with hindsight for whatever the reasons were. Now here we are post SoH closure and many of the same oil glutters are discussing why oil is "only" $100/bbl +/-. Why did LNG spike so high in 2022? A rich region, Europe, was facing gas shortages post Russia cutoff and paid anything to outbid cargoes otherwise destined for Asia. Once that demand was satisfied, LNG prices understandably fell back. Why is oil not higher today? We don't have (and are unlikely to have) shortages in the U.S. Meanwhile Europeans, while concerned about jet and diesel, aren't yet facing shortages. Furthermore, developing Asia immediately went to COVID lockdown mode of work-from-home and cutting marginal travel. The oil price may well spike meaningfully if SoH stays closed! We remain deeply concerned with the current "messy peace" stalemate. We suspect it will be RICH world shortages that drive the big spike everyone thinks should already be here. Does back-end oil need to rally? I am not so sure. Maybe a bit, but not like what was needed over 2004-2014. The world isn't short known developable oil resource relative to expected demand growth in a 2.8% (pre War) trend global GDP world. That is a bid difference with China/BRICs oil super-cycle. The world is short (or tight) REFINING capacity and related MIDSTREAM infrastructure. Getting molecules to end markets is the issue at this time. Our core macro framework remains Geopolitical Super Vol. arjunmurti.substack.com/p/ep98-a-new-e…

Now Live: Super-Spiked EP215: Long-Takes: What can E&Ps learn from U.S. refiners amidst a Geopolitical Super Vol macro backdrop?⚡ This week we introduce the topic of how to think about energy equity valuations given a Geopolitical Super Vol macro backdrop. Traditional valuation metrics like EV/EBITDA are likely to prove especially unhelpful at a time of major geopolitical uncertainty and commodity volatility. We harken back to the framework we used in the early 2010s for US refiners when Brent-WTI first blew out to around $20/bbl when surging shale oil production unexpectedly filled up pipelines and infrastructure. At the time, investors treated every press release of a contemplated pipeline reversal as solving the bottleneck. Spreads did ultimately narrow meaningfully, as expected, but the transient “above normal” cash flows were not worth zero as the market was initially ascribing. Our framework gave “one-time” credit to temporary cash flows and full credit for our estimate of mid-cycle earnings. This is not a perfect analogy for a geopolitical event like the Strait of Hormuz, but we think the framework is a good one for this environment. ▶️ Watch the 15-minute video below. #SuperSpiked @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

@ericnuttall is of course 100% correct. The world desperately needs more Canadian oil...and, yet, misguided climate ideology from its leadership has not died. There is not a consumer in Asia that cares about Canada's CO2 footprint. In fact, as a relative small country, Canada's carbon footprint is completely irrelevant.

Great thread from Jeff.

Arjun Murti joined CBS News' The Takeout with Major Garrett to discuss the impact of rising energy prices on inflation, gasoline prices, and the broader economy. Arjun explained how the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is contributing to higher oil and gasoline prices, increasing inflationary pressure across the economy. As Arjun noted, while U.S. shale production and global reserves have helped cushion the market, prolonged disruption could push oil prices materially higher in the months ahead. He also emphasized that even if the Strait reopens, energy markets are unlikely to return to pre-war conditions given ongoing geopolitical risk and infrastructure uncertainty. ▶️ Watch the 4-minute segment below. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti @CBSNews @MajorCBS #Energy #OilMarkets #Inflation #OilAndGas #Geopolitics #CapitalMarkets

Arjun Murti was recently quoted in a @WSJ article, “Despite the War, Energy Stocks Are Cheap," by Jinjoo Lee. The piece explores how energy companies are approaching capital discipline, shareholder returns, and balance sheet strength amid ongoing market volatility and elevated oil prices. As Arjun emphasized: "This time around, there’s an opportunity to really get to a fortress balance sheet." 📰 Read the full article here: lnkd.in/gDUiFfKG. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti @JinjLee

Now Live: "RCP8.5 Is Officially Dead" – Roger Pielke Jr., American Enterprise Institute🎙️ Today on #COBT we were thrilled to welcome back our good friend Roger Pielke Jr., Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of The Honest Broker on Substack. Roger’s research focuses on science and technology policy, climate policy, energy policy, extreme events and disasters, the politicization of science, governmental science advice, and sports governance. He is a Professor Emeritus at the University of Colorado Boulder and served as a professor in the Environmental Studies department for over 23 years. We were eager to visit with Roger to discuss the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s elimination of the RCP8.5 scenario. As always, we value Roger’s perspective and appreciate his insights on the latest trends in climate science and beyond. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti @RogerPielkeJr @AEI

Found another one, boys. As predicted on BDE. Both sides dusting off the price-gouging playbook. Again, to provide some context. 1Q’26 net income margins… XOM: 5% CVX: 4.5% AAPL: 29.3% GOOG: 57% META: 47.5% MSFT: 35.7% @nimblephatty @kirkcoburn @FracSlap @collide_ai

Now Live: Super-Spiked EP100: Immutable Themes and Reframing Macro Scenarios⚡ This is the 100th Super-Spiked video podcast. We've also had an additional 114 written posts that for no obvious reason we account for with its own numbering system, a point that we are sure is of interest to no one and we will merge going forward in case you are wondering why we'll jump to number 215 next week. In celebration of our 100th episode, we recorded this a week early ahead of a guy's golf trip to Scotland, where we'll be playing Turnberry, Prescott, Royal Troon, and Western Gailes. 8 rounds in 5 days is way to ambitious for a bunch of guys in their upper 50s. More on that in the On A Personal Note at the end of this video. Our key focus this week will be discussing how we think the world should think about energy macro scenarios. It should not surprise anyone that we do not believe the world will go back to viewing CO2 as an organizing principle for energy. We have been asked if not “net zero” then what? We attempt to answer that question this week. We start off by taking a look at the key themes from 2022 at the start of Super-Spiked. Those initial themes have stood the test of time. This 100th episode is targeted at a combination of corporate executives, board members, policy people, and the macro economics and sustainability people within companies. It’s probably not for everyone, but that has been one of our philosophies. We are not looking to maximize views of Super-Spiked. We hope it will be accessible to everyone, but this one in particular is aimed at a smaller subset of key decision makers. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 2:06 Our Key Themes from 2022 Have Stood the Test of Time 11:40 Won't Net Zero Make a Comeback in 2028? 17:31 If Not Net Zero, Then What? 21:46 How Should Energy Macro Scenarios Be Reframed? 23:30 On A Personal Note #SuperSpiked @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

100% with @ericnuttall Yet organizations like GFANZ sought to exclude "oil sands" and "Arctic" from insurance and financing in recent years. Code words for "Canada" and "Alaska". Non-sensical for western financial institutions to face pressure to limit financing to companies in their own countries. Canada (and Alaska) oil and gas is good oil and gas. The world needs a lot more of it.

Now Live: Super-Spiked EP99: Long-Takes: Iran, UAE & OPEC, Canada⚡ This week we have some quick comments on a trio of topics including (1) macro risk/reward at the two-month anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, (2) UAE’s decision to withdraw from OPEC, and (3) the attractiveness of Canada for energy investment. All these themes fit well within our Geopolitical Super Vol theme. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 0:42 Macro risk/reward at the 2-month anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed 8:27 UAE’s decision to withdraw from OPEC 13:08 The attractiveness of Canada for energy investment. 17:45 On A Personal Note #SuperSpiked @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Arjun Murti was pleased to speak with @barronsonline about the impact of the War in Iran on various energy sources. The piece highlights accelerating activity in renewables, particularly solar and storage, alongside broader disruption across energy markets tied to geopolitics and commodity volatility. Arjun emphasized that countries are going to pursue energy source and technology diversification. 📰 Read the full article here: barrons.com/articles/renew…. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Aramco is making energy a tech business, says @ArjunNMurti AI + energy = control of the next industrial system AI is being used to increase recovery, cut costs, and integrate energy into the next wave of industrial and digital demand. #Energy #AI #Geopolitics #aramco

Now Live: Super-Spiked 114: Energy Tech, Convergence, and the Hyperscalers⚡ This week we expand on the Energy Technology component of our Geopolitical Super Vol framework we introduced last week. The massive unmet energy needs of the other seven billion people on Earth were  already driving investment in new energy technologies in particular for countries not blessed with sufficient domestic resources like crude oil, natural gas, or coal. A backdrop of structurally increased geopolitical uncertainty and turmoil, in particular amongst the largest economies in the world, will drive a doubling, tripling, and quadrupling down on a wide swath of new technologies that help meet energy needs. For The Lucky 1 Billion of Us, there is a need to invest in the technologies that allow our industries to compete in a host a new areas and to no longer simply cede all manufacturing to China and other Asian countries—as the U.S. and Western Europe have done over the past 25 years. The new technology areas we are most interested in span four broad buckets: ● Grid optimization and enhancement ● Power generation ● Demand diversification opportunities, which encompasses areas like EVs (electric vehicles), LNG (liquefied natural gas) trucks, and energy efficiency ● Manufacturing and industrial competitiveness via physical AI, robotics, and automation In this post we: ● differentiate between “Energy Tech,” which we believe has a very favorable outlook, and “Climate Tech,” the latter of which always seemed non-sensical to us. ● highlight the key areas we are watching most closely within the new technology buckets noted above. ● provide a progress report on hyperscaler profitability given the massive ramp in CAPEX seen by those companies. ● highlight Aramco as an AI and technology leader. The opportunity for investment spans a broad spectrum of companies, technologies, and regions across a range of sectors including technology, industrials, traditional energy, new energies, power, infrastructure, metals, minerals, and mining. In a nutshell, Energy & Power + Technology + Industrials + Metals & Materials convergence. 📖 Read the full post here: veriten.com/stream/super-s…. ▶️ Listen to audio recording here: veriten.com/wp-content/upl…. #SuperSpiked @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Now Live: "There Is No Certainty, Only Varying Degrees of Risk" – William Su, BlackRock 🎙️ Today on #COBT we greatly enjoyed hosting Will Su, Head of Public Energy Equities and Director of Research & Portfolio Manager, Fundamental Equities, at @BlackRock. Will has an extensive career in research, investing, and commodities, and brings a valuable perspective to the global energy investor landscape. We were thrilled to visit with Will on how energy, geopolitics, and technology are increasingly intersecting to shape markets and investment frameworks. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

A great COBT with one of my all time favorite former colleagues. Great insights on energy investing amongst significant macro and geopolitical volatility.

Arjun Murti recently spoke with @WorldOil on the evolving situation around the Strait of Hormuz and the broader implications for global energy markets. Arjun discusses the potential for ongoing volatility in oil markets, the economic risks tied to supply disruptions, and why geopolitical developments are increasingly driving price direction. 📰 Read the full interview: worldoil.com/news/2026/4/19…. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Arjun Murti was recently quoted in @nytimes discussing the outlook for oil and gasoline prices amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. As Arjun noted, “We don’t expect oil prices — and therefore pump prices — to go back to prewar levels.” 📰 Read the full article here: nytimes.com/2026/04/18/bus…. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti