Morning Tea

说不定哪天我就离开这里

@nono_btc any example about Responsive buying / selling？

⭐️ VAH付近でのロングエントリーについて そうですね。多くの方は、VALで待って買いたいんだろうなとは思います。気持ちは全然理解できます。 ただ、全てがそうであるというわけではないですが、VALに落ちてきたところを買うというのは、一種の逆張り戦略に他ならないと思います。下手をすれば、ずっと底探しのようなエントリーになってしまう。まあ、そういうやり方もあるとは思いますが、私は好まないです。 また、何度かポストしている通り、私は、トレンドフォロワーです。トレンドが出たら、基本的にはポジションを追加して追随していき、利益の最大化を狙います。ポジションを取って、そのまま追加せず、長期間保有することがありません。 ロングもショートもトレンドをフォローし続けます。（過去ポストからパッと拾えた画像をいくつか添付しときました。） トレードにおいては、参加者が独自に行動しているのか（Initiative buying / selling）、それとも、バリューエリアから離れた取引をしている市場に反応しているのか（Responsive buying / selling）を知ることが重要です。 VALでのロングエントリーは、 公正価値から離れた取引をしていることに反応することです。例えば、こんなことないですが、iPhoneが急に１万前後で販売されてるようなイメージです。欲しくなくても、まあ、買っとこうか、って思う人もいると思います。しかし、私はそこに本当の需要があると思いません。単に、安いということに反応しての購買行動に過ぎないと考えます。 一方で、 VAHでのロングエントリーは、 VAという公正価値より高いと、認識しながら買ってる行動と言い換えることができると思います。これは、例えば、プレミアムが付いたスニーカーとかでしょうか。定価で２、３万程度なのに、何かとコラボして、１０万円とか異常な価格。それでも買う人がいる、需要がある。これが価格を押し上げる重要な需要と考えますし、こういう市場のアクティビティを私は見たいし、それに従いたいという感じです。

@skepticalxbt Is your yellow line the delta? Why did you draw that line?

would be careful here, had a pretty high vol & delta candle into qvwap tp'd all my longs (which i most likely will regret), showing early signs of topping out at least locally will be looking for fresh trades, and giving back as little as possible of what i made

@Pivot922 Yes, they're just copying what's in the book and drawing an absorption like that

I am seeing too many "order flow" charts from people who have no idea what they are looking at

Some good old @insiliconot bunker alpha for folks trying to fade this breakout

@Pivot922 Could you explain why you hold that view?

That's all I see happening IMO $BTC

Attempting to test the high end of weekends auction and failing Guess what auction from the weekend is left to test? $BTC

@Luckshuryy Why don't you think this is a bearish exhaustion?

what absorption looks like: - increased selling - price unable to make new lows passive buyers absorbing aggressive sellers example ↓

@DMWaterTrading Any recommendations?

@Supergr1d No sir. YouTube is your best friend. Large majority of what I learned came from YouTube, Google, and using Claude.

Four years of chasing different strategies taught me one thing. I was the variable that needed to change. That realization came late, but it's the only one that matters now. Either I address it or I'm done. My most recent switch was to orderflow, and that's where I'm staying. But this time is different. Instead of relying on memorization and pattern recognition, I'm doing what I've avoided for years. Actually putting in the work to understand what I'm trading and why. The actual theory behind it. Back in November I decided to hunker down. I picked up Mind Over Markets. I forced myself to watch those multi-hour auction theory videos that I used to tap out of after five minutes. I cancelled my prop firm subscriptions, stopped trading, and started focusing on learning. I overhauled my Sierra charts, got rid of the noise and simplified my chartbooks. I've never front tested and journaled without trading. And if I had a bad day I found myself not wanting to journal out of embarrassment, or I would say to myself "I won't take a trade like that again so there's no need to journal it" 2026 is going to be different. It's the year I finally get my shit together. I refuse to let all of these years be for nothing.

@Higher_Lows_T i wantto join in it

Any struggling Orderflow Traders here need help? Must have at least 3-5 years of trading experience. Solid risk management already in place. If you want a grad school advanced experience. Reach out. Looking for 3-5 people. No cost require other than hard work and accountability

@Pivot922 sir How long will Discord be available?

Okay, for the bros that are still left I will be streaming on YT on the 27th 2pm ET as promised I will also be opening discord on the 27th to new members Don't bring CT slop into my discord, we wont tolerate it

@0xHiruko 1

他们只是在说一些废话

@0xHiruko rang women shuo zhong wen

@karastrades boss any solution to avoid it?

Simplify the system. Reflect on past wins, boost your confidence, and cut off unnecessary tools. Less is more.

Most Traders forget that it is Market Orders that ultimately move price. Here's my unfiltered thoughts on trying to simplify things to see where an Edge can come from ↓ ----------------------------- What MUST happen in order for a trade to move from Entry to Target? • Group 1 have to OPEN a position after your entry • Group 2 have to CLOSE their position after your entry ----------------------------- If you enter a LONG POSITION, then the only way that you are going to WIN the trade is if market buy orders come in AFTER you have entered the trade. • Market Buys can come from people OPENING A LONG after you have entered. (Opening a trade is OPTIONAL) • Market Buys can also come from people CLOSING THEIR SHORT after you have entered. (Closing a trade is COMPULSORY) ----------------------------- How can we open a long before other people open a long on the same idea? • faster execution (hard) • more aggressive level selection and/or frontrunning (hard) How can we open a long before other people close a short on the opposite idea? • we have information that they do not have (easy) • we trade in markets where the competition is dumber and more emotional (easy) ----------------------------- So there are basically 2 Options. • OPTION 1: being faster than competition (hard) • OPTION 2: having more information than competition (easy) ⚠️ Disclaimer: I type "easy" but I'm referring to level of difficulty (or infrastructure required) when compared to the alternative. ----------------------------- Let’s talk a bit more about OPTION 2: “having more information” Useful Framework ↓ • “if X happens, what is the probability that Y happens next?” • if you try to ask this question for X and Y for 10,000 different ideas, it’s likely that you will find some statistical anomalies. ----------------------------- Something to think about: • through brute force alone you can find edge. • Most crypto traders are incredibly lazy. Barely anyone has the patience to collect the data on 10,000 ideas. Example: • “If RSI crosses above 90 on the 1 day timeframe on BTC, what is the probability that the next day is a green day?” Barely anyone knows the answer to even 1 of these types of questions. Take advantage of the fact that most participants are entitled and lazy. Destroy your opponent with your data. 🌶️

Whos that theta girl and why shes stealing my time?

🤓