Surf2Freedom

2.7K posts

Surf2Freedom

Surf2Freedom

@Surfing2freedom

Surfing the wave to freedom

Katılım Ocak 2021
737 Takip Edilen173 Takipçiler
Matheus Lonning
Matheus Lonning@mathlonning·
It’s always darkest right before dawn.
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Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton·
Very strong earnings report this morning by $FPS (Forgent Power Solutions)... we increased our position today... now a top 15 position at @FirstWaveFund Here is the press release: ir.forgentpower.com/news-events/pr… FY2026 Q3 results: Revenues of $379M, up 103% YoY Bookings of $867M, up 308% YoY Backlog of $1.98B, up 157% YoY Net income of $55M, up 132% YoY FY2026 full year guidance: Revenues of $1.37B, up 82% YoY Ebitda of $315M, up 86% YoY Net income of $202M, up 128% YoY $FPS is a recent IPO that has not gotten enough attention especially because their fundamentals are exceptionally strong. $FPS manufactures mission-critical electrical distribution equipment used in technically demanding applications such as data center power distribution, utility substations, and energy-intensive manufacturing. High-growth datacenter and electrical grid applications represent the majority of revenue, with a particular emphasis on serving the most sophisticated colocation, hyperscalers, and neocloud datacenter customers. These end markets are in a state of severe undersupply that is set to persist for a number of years into the future. Typical lead times from competitors for these key components can stretch from 12-24 months, in part due to these peers’ reliance on third-party manufacturing for critical components that are prone to delays. In contrast to that model, $FPS leverages its vertically-integrated product portfolio to deliver prefabricated, fully-assembled turnkey systems to customers with 30-50% shorter lead times than competitors can offer. $FPS is close to completing a massive $200M capacity expansion that will quintuple revenue throughput from last year’s ~$1B all the way up to ~$5B annually. This represents the industry’s largest capacity expansion for at least half a decade. Once complete, capex should decline to just ~1% of revenues starting next year. Looking ahead to CY2027, revenues should exceed $2.5B and could reach $3.0B+ With strong execution and continued margin expansion, EBITDA in CY2027 should exceed $650M and could reach $800M+ which implies the stock is likely trading below 20x 2027 ev/ebitda Despite a forward top-line CAGR likely exceeding 70% for the next couple of years (vs. ~12% peer avg), $FPS stock is priced at or slightly below the average EBITDA multiple of its low-growth peers. $FPS should generate $1.5B+ of EBITDA once it ramps-up to its full $5B+ annual revenue capacity within the next few years. At a reasonable 25x exit multiple more typical of high-growth industrial businesses, $FPS stock could have significant upside from current prices. NFA. DYOR. **We own $FPS at @FirstWaveFund and added to our position today.
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton

Some of you know that I launched a hedge fund several months ago (early November). We run a long/short strategy, focused on owning the 20-40 growth stocks that we believe have the most upside over the next 2-3 years... this means they need to have great fundamentals, strong management teams, compelling valuations, and multiple catalysts that we can identify and track accordingly. It's been a rough few months for many growth investors (we also took some pain)... thankfully we were averaging down into our core positions but we've still seen some red months and it has not been enjoyable. I'm not a fan of losing money. Stepping back... I've never had more conviction in my process or my portfolio than I do right now... especially with some of my favorite stocks down 20-40% from their September/October/November highs despite strong Q4 earnings reports, strong CY2026 guidance and extremely compelling valuations. With that said, here are our top 10 positions in alphabetical order: $APP $CPNG $CRDO $HIMS $HROW $SKHYNIX $IREN $NBIS $RDDT $TMDX I believe all of these stocks are trading at meaningfully higher prices in 2-3 years which remains my focus for generating outsized long-term returns. Enjoy the rest of your day 😊 NFA. DYOR. ** @FirstWaveFund owns all of the stocks mentioned in this post.

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Matheus Lonning
Matheus Lonning@mathlonning·
$TRT For FY26 Q4 I expect $TRT to grow semiconductor segment revenues over 100% YoY once again, 13m-14m range. Though I expect IE segment to be roughly flat YoY at 3.3m to 4.3m. Therefore total revenue growth would be ~60% YoY The main thing is $TRT reveals their backlog on their 10K fillings. It was at 11m as of FY25 Q4 release. I expect that to have grown significantly. I see $TRT once again growing semiconductor segment revenues in FY27 by a significant amount.
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Surf2Freedom
Surf2Freedom@Surfing2freedom·
@KHerriage I’m with you 💪🇺🇸 God Bless we live in America.!
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Kip Herriage
Kip Herriage@KHerriage·
We’re living in very special times. If you’re willing to work your butt off you can make as much money as you desire, doing exactly what you want. That’s heaven for entrepreneurs. And we’re doing it as we enter the Innovation Revolution, where more wealth will be created over the next 10 years than’s been created in all of history, with a long running era of technological advancement that is guaranteed to be mind-bending. We also have Trump & Musk, almost certainly the 2 most consequential men of the last hundred years. And we get to see them speak, daily. What? Anyone telling you they’re not blessed to live in this time is nothing short of a complete fool. A dud. I plan on experiencing all of this over the rest of my life. And I’m looking forward to doing it with all you like-minded optimists. 🇺🇸
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@jason
@jason@Jason·
Never stop selling
@jason tweet media
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Surf2Freedom
Surf2Freedom@Surfing2freedom·
@mathlonning Tell them to announce they will fly chips around or just change the name to the technology with prefix “AI”
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Matheus Lonning
Matheus Lonning@mathlonning·
I legitimately hate $TMDX stock. Wow. So sick of it lol
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Surf2Freedom
Surf2Freedom@Surfing2freedom·
@ThisWeeknAI @Jason @arena @theanalognick Hi J Cal - Knicks resting. 💪 have book draft I think you would love called .. We Are All Builders Now .. how AI collapsed the barriers to building products. So AI + Vision + Storytelling+Execution is a super power. .. where can I send it ?
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This Week in AI
This Week in AI@ThisWeeknAI·
"The 1% aren't going to be able to just afford a G650. They're going to be able to afford a $10 million data center for themselves" - @Jason This week's roundtable: 1. Anastasios Angelopoulos @ML_Angelopolous, CEO of @arena. 2. Nick Harris @theanalognick, CEO of @LightmatterCo, photonic computing chips. 3. Philip Johnston @philipjohnston, CEO of @Starcloud_, building megawatt data centers in space. TWiAI Episode 13 out now: On YouTube youtu.be/QEu9_0R4eAU
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Surf2Freedom
Surf2Freedom@Surfing2freedom·
Hi @amasad @replit this fits perfect into the narrative of a book I’m writing called “We Are All Builders Now” can I send you a draft of the book ? ““We haven't actually productized it yet. So it's almost like you get a bundle of energy. That's how I think of models, their potential energy, that entrepreneurs need to go figure out how to make them into products. And this is why it's an explosive time for entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship, is because we have this potential energy that needs to be harnessed.” From My First Million: How Replit Agent made $1M on day one (then $250M in a year), May 7, 2026 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/my-…
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Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton·
I agree, market/investors being very short term focused… they don’t want to wait for $TMDX to get through this lower margin investment cycle and build the product portfolio and infrastructure needed to support the next leg of growth. I’m willing to be patient because I think this is a $350+ stock within the next 5 years. Also, easier to be patient on $TMDX when $NBIS and $HYNIX are our two biggest positions. Nothing has changed with my long term $TMDX thesis. I’m excited to watch them execute their growth plan. No really to doubt Waleed and his team. They’ve grown revs by 30x over the past 5-6 years… selling at these prices just makes me laugh.
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Matheus Lonning
Matheus Lonning@mathlonning·
My absolute worst case scenario has $TMDX doing 710m for fy26. That’s without trials and slow Europe growth. That would be ~17.5% YoY. Although this is not ideal, the company would likely be able to re accelerate in 2027 with trials, Europe and kidney.
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Matheus Lonning
Matheus Lonning@mathlonning·
$TMDX President of OPTN shared a note with concerns regarding NRP and overall DCD cases. One of the greatest safety concerns in the setting of NRP is the potential for reperfusion of the brain. . . [W]e must take every step to monitor for evidence of brain reperfusion, and one sign of reperfusion would be return of respiratory drive. Consequently, paralytic agents must not be used in the setting of NRP as they may obscure potential signs of life . . ." Does anyone have access to the full message? Seems like potentially harmful for DCD
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ShortSeller
ShortSeller@ShortSeller·
The long end going up all around the world
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