Swarm Quant

wow

@noalphadecay @ScottPh77711570 @macrocephalopod @investingidiocy Momentum is very asymmetrical in crypto long vs short

cc @ScottPh77711570 @macrocephalopod @investingidiocy I am not sure about the asymmetry-effect, at least this surprised me, because crypto experienced large swings. maybe downside is more abrupt. would love to hear what you think about the findings and takeaways

my goal is to build a @investingidiocy-style trend-following system for crypto. before running backtests, I examined time-series momentum to derive design implications. the chart shows a quantile regression of weekly vol-normalized forward returns on weekly, monthly, and quarterly returns

What happened with $CRO ?

Remind me again was it a good or a bad thing, when $LTC starts moving?

Bro did you see this coffeezilla vid yesterday? 4M/year from selling forex bs. The best part on the question how do you know the price goes up: "I just know, I can't explain it..." ... So you are telling me even if you are this market wizard (which he is not) yoi are saying you can't explain what you are doing AND STILL people pay you 4M for you to explain what you are doing... I am amazed youtu.be/znl1WhLCnhE?si…

@SwarmQuant I was trying to answer that but I have no clue 😂 I admire a good grift, and the algo just likes to remind me that some are making millions with 0 risk on the table while I'm sailing through mad variance.

isn't it a crime to lie like this?

What do you guys use as a simple marked hedge in crypto to run a market neutral strategy against? The problem I am talking more about an equal risk weighted market index. So BTC is not really the answer because this index looks a lot more like the Alts chart than BTC. (Same for ETH)

@JungleRockRes Looks like a lot of hindsight bias

Tear Sheet of Crypto Risk Management (Beaver) benchmarked against Bitcoin Portfolio. These are a selection of key metrics you can explore within our full strategy Tear Sheets, available in the expanded strategy card view.

Turns out this time was not much different and we fully cooled off again.

Is there a way to make this spiky data useful 🤔

@PtrPomorski Why so complex just buy low sell high

This is actually pretty interesting, finally some non-yolo approach to modeling risk in crypto portfolios.

Yes, very true. Most directional crypto shops are still in deep DD or are just recovering. The sad part is that many investors have it even worse. Because these funds get most of their money during peak mania. Same as people buying crypto outright. Which means they buy at the top and then often quite during the DD. Also most directional crypto funds are just a bet on the altcoin market as they try to punt whatever they feel like is hot. They want to make higher returns than BTC so they take more risk.

@pedma7 My biggest flex is that I don't even use a calendar

my definition of wealth is a perpetually free calendar. not to do anything, but to do anything you want. could care less about having X arbitrary net worth. what for? so I can brag a number on a screen? show me an empty calendar, and that is rich to me.

First profit-taking has started in one of my biggest positions $BNB

These #1 awards are so stupid... Funds that use them to brag should probably be avoided. They are for the "best performance" in a single month... You can be down 99% because your startegy is to buy shitcoins (which is the strategy of many funds) and for one month your shit investment returns 60% or whatever and you are the top performing fund for this month because you went all in on the garbage that ran the most...

@TheFlowHorse Lets hope its not a bad thing for once

ETH is stealing Bitcoin's thunder a bit.

In May this was about the time we got shafted. Let's hope this time is different and we get to experience a little more fun

@ScottPh77711570 👏

My bro had brain surgery yesterday I have the urge to reply with an emoji

When will $BONK bonk its head?

Yes and a big problem is that trading strategies are actually harder to understand than investing in companies (or crypto). There it is company makes more money / more people talk about my crypto -> price go up -> good That is just not the case with trading strategies. So I think one of the biggest problem is understanding what they are investing in.

Most retail traders are set to fail. I had an interesting call with our white label client today. They are offering our white label solution to hundreds of retail clients. The biggest issue is a lack of patience + not understanding the law of big numbers. What retail is missing is the deep understanding that trading is just another form of investment. You are investing into a trading solution. And to make money investing, you have to be patient and have proper investment horizon...