Pavel | Robuxio

1. February Performance: February closed positive. HSHV portfolio delivered +8% with a −3.09% max drawdown. HSLV portfolio returned +4.73% with a −1.63% max drawdown.

Short interview with Marsten Parker. The Unknown Market Wizard and developer of Realtest. How he started? What assets he trades? What trading approaches he uses? @mars10p even shared the specific logics of his breakout system...

@Nin_ja_Bob I don't know. The change of narrative can be anything. I am bad predictor...

@PKycek What gets us out of this stage of the cycle? It seems like only macro bad news right now. Geopolitical instability, rates, btc bear market etc.

A difficult period for professional crypto asset managers. Over the last 6 months, I know of several vehicles - funds or managed account solutions - that have shut down. And that does not even include those directly linked to the 10/10 crash. 1/ Strong long momentum has been absent from the market for more than a year. 2/ Retail participation is lower than usual. 3/ A much larger number of professionals are now trading against each other. 4/ Simple market inefficiencies, such as basic arbitrage opportunities, are getting exhausted. This tends to move quite cyclically in crypto: strong momentum attracts more retail, more inefficiencies, and even more momentum - and vice versa.

@systvest @P123Finance Thanks for sharing.

@PKycek This was pre-@P123Finance times (blue line). 2021 was ok. 20ish % drawdown in 2022. Left a lot on the table because I traded to loosely and did not have the proper tools and data.

Aaaaaand it's gone. Or as we say in Germany: Tja 🤷

A good litmus test for the situation in the GCC can be the reserves of the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates. The dirham is pegged to the U.S. dollar at 3.6725 AED per USD. The key question: how much would need to be spent to defend that rate in the coming weeks/months, if the situation continues to escalate.

@vladijakobi Hedge against inflation.

@PKycek Wait for Diesel spot etf‘s. The new backbone of tomorrows financial system 🤣

Best trend-following trade lately: parked my 4x4 Toyota with a full tank. Diesel +30%. At least something is making higher highs.

@vladijakobi BTC is good, diesel is better. 😃

@PKycek They told us to invest in bitcoin…

@bridgetoai Of course, Omar, the real man.

@PKycek Insightful! Cycles like this show why I value the UAE’s strong blockchain framework-it keeps crypto innovation steady when momentum fades.

@APompliano Wasn't that more of a luck than skill?

War correspondents are some of the most courageous people in the world. Kudos to this guy for surviving a missile strike only feet away.

@GTO_J1 In general, Toyota crew. Anything from Prius for my wife, RAV4 and Land Cruiser.

@PKycek Land Cruiser crew?

@TradeWithABear I cannot say exactly as we are trading it with significant capital but some of the patterns are very well tradable.

@PKycek Thanks - I already got the book on my list. I was just curious if you are still trading inside bar/pinbar setups though?

1/ When does it make sense to go MR long after a large selloff? In Top40 Binance perps by volume (2020–2026), the answer is fairly clear: For 5-day drops, the sweet spot is -30% to -50%. That is where mean reversion still works Beyond -50%, these are usually not attractive MR longs anymore.

@TradeWithABear Thank you! Some of them are better than others. We also put together a book to explain the basisc of our approaches in a bigger detail... amazon.com/Algorithmic-Cr…

Hello @PKycek I really appreciate the Information you are sharing for free. I also came across with some earlier work of yours, where you show some simple "inside bar" continuation breakouts, Pinbar Breakouts and also 3 bar MR Is this something you think is still worth looking into? I did a rough backtest of the Inside Bar Breakout, but could not see positive results in my universe (top 10 coins)

@simo_vanov That's a good question. You can find nuances if you want to find them. But the issue is that there is not enough data to separate luck from statistics. That's why we are not doing it.

The -50% cutoff is interesting — at some point you stop getting mean reversion and start getting regime change. The asset that dropped 60% in five days often has a structural reason that hasn't fully priced in yet. I trade forex and indices, not crypto perps, but I've seen similar dynamics. My best MR setups cluster in a specific range of deviation from mean — too small and there's no edge, too large and the move is telling you something fundamental shifted. The hard part was figuring out where that boundary sits for each instrument, because it's not the same everywhere. Did you see meaningful differences across the Top40, or does the -30 to -50 range hold pretty consistently?

3/ The same pattern holds for 3-day drops, but the breakdown happens earlier. In Top40, it makes sense to look for MR longs in the -30% to -50% zone on 5-day drops, and -30% to -40% on 3-day drops. Once the drop is bigger than -50%, the setup usually stops behaving like a dip and starts behaving like a broken coin In the full crypto futures universe, the same bounce exists, but it is weaker and breaks earlier.

2/ In the full Binance futures universe (704 coins), the same setup is weaker even before that point: The bounce exists in the full universe too but it is clearly weaker, and once the drop moves beyond -50%, it breaks down fast.

@brifit912069 :)

@PKycek Time to move to Dubai ! Low taxes complemented by a few rocket and drone impacts.

Tax season: The time of year when corruption in government annoys me the most.

@TiltFolio Agree. But I would say "yet". We will probably get there...

@PKycek Couldn't have said it better Pavel - I will remember this one. Explains why markets are penalizing industries with a lack of perceived wisdom (e.g. software), while other industries (e.g. legal services) are not as affected.

AI scales skill, not wisdom. 1. For researchers who know how to model strategies properly and avoid bias, AI creates a massive leverage effect in research efficiency and speed. 2. Without experience, AI simply accelerates data mining, overfitting, and false discoveries.