
Cameron
1.6K posts




Here's how I see Tesla's Cybercab strategy playing out with some optimistic predictions - LMK what you think $TSLA: - Q2 2026: Tesla builds first commercial Cybercab for internal use only as a Robotaxi in Austin - as designed and marketed at the We Robot event. No steering wheel and pedals - literally @wholemars's dream. - Q3 2026: Tesla ramps Cybercab line to ~100 units per week. By this point, Tesla is about 20%-30% of the way through the current 2,500 yearly Federal limit for vehicles without steering wheels and pedals. Tesla waits for resolution for their exemption to sell more Cybercabs - which they filed months ago. - Q4 2026: Tesla reaches ~1,500 Cybercabs per week by the end of the quarter, which maxes out their allowance for 2025. By now, Tesla has been monitoring the regulatory environment very closely and is thinking about where to allocate production capacity in Q1 of 2027. - Q1 2027: Tesla gets a Federal exemption to build more vehicles without steering wheel and pedals, and they have 20-30 metro areas approved for operation throughout the US. These areas can absorb ~20,000 Cybercabs in total and growing. However, by now, Tesla is reaching 4,000 Cybercabs per week, which means that they are able to satiate the total demand for a Cybercab without steering wheel and pedals in about a month. - Q2 2027: To ensure Tesla doesn't sit on idle Cybercab line capacity, Tesla launches a Cybercab or Cybercab-like vehicle that shares 80%-90% of parts with the Robotaxi Cybercab, but with steering wheel and pedals and a potentially modified form factor that is geared for cost-conscious buyers that want to get from Point A to Point B starting at $29k. Could be a 2 seater, a 2 by 2 like a Mini Cooper, etc. But most importantly, this vehicle will be built on the exact line Cybercab is built on and will be capable of Unsupervised FSD. This allows Tesla to continue ramping the line as planned without disruption to the entire Supply Chain that has been secured to reach their target of ~800k cars per year on the line. The biggest selling point of this vehicle - own a completely hassle-free car that you don't have to drive for ~$500-$600 per month. Includes maintenance, charging, insurance, and unsupervised self driving. - Q3 2027: Tesla continues to ramp the line without worry since demand for this new vehicle is off the charts, and the company is able to switch between configurations based on the status of regulations, markets that are in need, and demand from consumers for the variant with a steering wheel and pedals. Tesla reaches ~8,000 vehicles per week and ramping. - Q4 2027: Omar proudly wears the 'Farzad Was Right' T-T-Shirt on Christmas and sends a cute selfie to Farzad to celebrate Tesla's domination of the transportation market.







As a HW3 Model 3 owner (and one of the first to get a retrofit from HW2.5), I don’t think it’s per se an issue with the answer we’ve received from Tesla, and more so the timeline. Everyone has their own tolerances for waiting; while I don’t mind waiting years, others feel differently. Many will lose their vehicle or sell it (whether to upgrade to another Tesla or not) before seeing Unsupervised come to fruition. So I think that rephrasing the question to request a formal timeline and commitment, rather than guestimations, would appease the largest group of HW3 owners. “You will receive Unsupervised after we solve it on AI4” has already been given (and is a solid answer). Still, without tangible commitments, it leaves owners (and retail investors) with more questions. If a software only solution is on the table, more confidence is necessary. If a form of retrofit is required, try to set a firm limit on anticipation. I believe we all mutually feel this way. ❤️








Trump and Netanyahu bombed Iran and screwed over American farmers!




FSD in Amsterdam Casually pulling out of the parking space, going onto the Utrechtsestraat and doing something INCREDIBLE around the 3 min mark It passed an illegally parked truck with MINIMAL space, I wouldn’t have thought it would do this BALLER move




Welcome back to LC-36, "Never Tell Me The Odds." Next up: NG-3 hotfire 🔥









@seti_park We have already implemented it to all fleet.



@Chansoo Our rate of advancement with the small model has been so fast that the large model has not yet caught up. V15 will be the large model.
















