TB523

Just published my latest deep dive: $CRCL The stablecoin market is projected to grow at a 56% CAGR from $300B to $1.9T by 2030 according to Citi. $CRCL is perhaps the best public market proxy to express that bet. I discuss it all in this piece.👇 gabgrowth.com/p/circle-inter…

$SOFI five years ago: • $16/share • 1.5M members with ~$260M gross profit run-rate $SOFI today: • $16/share • 14.7M members with ~$2.4B gross profit run-rate Same price. Very different business.

$SOFI does not fit the mainstream investment thesis. It is not necessarily a stock to get you rich quick. It is a long term investment in a growing company with tons of potential, and the road to rewards will be winding through higher highs and higher lows. It will not go #Palantiring unless if there is such a huge risk appetite in the market with a rise of liquidity as signified by an up-leg of the copper/gold ratio and a rapid recovery of #Bitcoin. But the chart still looks good if you zoom out.

There was a technical daily gap for $SOFI at $15.85 that got filled. Over done much? Yeah. That's not the question. The question is what are you gonna do about it.

$SOFI Amazing numbers, the market thinks it’s not enough, as usual.. Important points: > Member growth holds at 35% YoY, same level as Q1 2025. > Products accelerated from 35% in Q1 2025 to 39% this year, meaning cross-selling, meaning a stickier platform. > Revenue growth accelerated from 33% in Q1 2025 to 41% this quarter. Clearly seeing the effect of increasing cross-selling here. How can you not like this? > Adjusted EBITDA margin up from 27% in Q1 2025 to 31% this year. Nailed this as well. > Lending revenue grew by 52%, driven by higher originations across the board. > Net charge-offs are down across all the personal loan segments. Just an amazing execution once again. I remain long the stock, PT $20, assuming 20x 2028 earnings.

$FCX AI data centers, power infrastructure, cabling, and energy intensive systems are genuinely increasing copper demand, but the bigger story mainly comes from electrification, renewable energy, grid modernization, and the EV transition. So AI is an additional factor accelerating an already strong structural demand trend. On the supply side, the real issue is that new mining projects take a very long time to come online, ore grades at existing mines are declining, and there are operational and political risks in major producing countries like Chile and Peru. Because of this, copper supply cannot grow as fast as demand, and there is a serious possibility of a bottleneck in the medium term. My view is that copper could truly become a strategic bottleneck area in the future

NEW: @circle VENTURES IS PURCHASING $AAVE TOKENS

Apperently the ETH Foundation deposited $48 million worth of #ETH into #Aave and began bailing out the market A large short squeeze could unfold as the OI grew up by a whooping 56% just in the past 72 hours, especially if unstakers begin to re-stake again.

I wanted to post this last night because I was following the Kelp and AAVE situation very closely. My personal conclusion is simple: AAVE only got hit this hard because it is the most liquid DeFi protocol. Some people wrote, “This is an architecture problem,” as if shared liquidity itself were bad. But v3 became the biggest protocol in the market with exactly that architecture. And if something large and trusted gets exploited again — whether it is a PT-Ethena position, cbBTC, LombardBTC, or something else — it will not matter whether the design is “multi-market” or something like Morpho. If the pool is liquid enough, it can be drained. This is DeFi. That is the risk of new technology. These systems need to be stress-tested over time and through situations like this. AAVE remains the top DeFi protocol in my view. This incident only showed once again that the tech is still new, and yes, it will keep getting exploited from time to time. Nothing actually happened on the AAVE, Compound, or Euler side at the core protocol level — they got hurt because they are real DeFi systems that actually work and can support serious size. What I am trying to say is that the one who gets hit is often the one who is actually capable of doing something at scale. My view is that DeFi will be exploited many more times in the future. If Morpho had a $500M Kelp pool in the same situation, that $500M could have been drained too. That is the exact RISK/REWARD profile that creates the possibility of outsized returns compared with other assets. Crypto is the way it is because the upside exists alongside the risk. From AAVE’s side, I do not see any real fault here. In my opinion, the community and Crypto Twitter did not actually understand the situation and reacted with pure hate and panic. I am not closing my position. I am adding on this dip. I think the retail reaction has been completely irrational. Maybe I am missing something. Maybe I am wrong. This is only my opinion, and I can absolutely be wrong, but I am telling you honestly how I see it. I think this will settle down and that AAVE is oversold. If you disagree with me, it is probably better to withdraw funds from the Vault. AAVE does have a problem right now, but in my opinion any DeFi protocol would have had the same problem in this situation, and many more similar cases will happen again in the future. I see this sell-off as nonsense, and time will put things back in place. I do not want to be out of position in the top asset of the strongest, fastest-growing, and most promising sector in a market that is likely still moving higher. I have said this a hundred times already: I think AAVE is being unfairly hated in this situation, even though it worked, works, and will continue to work extremely well. app.hyperliquid.xyz/vaults/0x65401… #AAVE #DeFi #Crypto #Ethereum #Hyperliquid

This Trump post is elite. And you’ll start to see it too as you read along. You will love this breakdown. Trump beings with the ceasefire violation: Iran firing bullets in the Strait of Hormuz at a French ship and a UK freighter- “That wasn’t nice, was it?” Trump is framing Iran’s aggression as childish. He also said yesterday that Iran got a little “cute”. You now recognize what he’s doing— he’s continuing to depict Iran as weak by minimizing their acts of aggression as if it’s pointless for them. And it gets better now. He casually drops that his representatives are landing in Islamabad tomorrow evening for negotiations. Immediate deadline pressure. There is no ticking clock. The clock has already struck zero. “We’re at the table, so you better come.” Then the masterclass in frame control: Iran announced they’re closing the Strait? Trump: “Strange… because our BLOCKADE has already closed it.” He flips Iran’s power move into proof they’re helping us without realizing it. They’re now the ones bleeding $500 Million Dollars a day while America loses nothing. Ships are already rerouting to Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, compliments of the IRGC “tough guys.” This is pure excellence from Trump as he turns their threat into self-inflicted pain and rubs their noses in it. Then comes the offer: “We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it…” This is the reluctant enforcer frame again we’ve seen from Trump a few times in these negotiations. He’s not the one itching for violence — he’s the guy giving them one last graceful exit while holding all the cards. And now it gets even more better. If they don’t take the deal? “The United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!” Branded destruction. Not vague “military action” — specific, visual, total infrastructure collapse. Power plants and bridges = lights out + isolated nation in one strike package. He even adds the timing layer: they’ll “come down fast, they’ll come down easy.” I like this because it’s visual and nonchalant. And then… “It will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END!” He positions himself as the guy finally doing the overdue dirty work. It’s a reminder that the war fatigue you feel is the price of what has to be done. Historical accountability + moral framing + total dominance, all in one. This isn’t just a threat to Iran, it’s layered negotiation theater: deadline + economic humiliation + specific branded consequences + last chance framing + historical redemption arc. He’s scripting the entire outcome while making refusal look suicidal and stupid. Trump makes it seem effortless. All eyes on Pakistan (and Trump’s Truth).

AAVE is up ~40% in the last 10 days, and @aave fundamentals are stronger by the day. > 100% of protocol revenue to the DAO > V4 introducing growth flywheels > Aave App expanding TAM I hope you didn't listen to influencers telling you otherwise. As always: ignore the noise.

Bessent just connected every dot,like I wrote i my latest article. China bought 90% of Iran's oil exports. That's almost 10% of China's total imports. Now the blockade cuts it off. And the US is warning Chinese banks: process Iranian payments = secondary sanctions. This isn't just an energy blockade. It's a financial one too. 🇮🇷 Iran loses its only real customer 🇨🇳 China loses its cheapest oil source 🏦 Chinese banks face secondary sanctions risk 💸 Iran's $400M/day bleeding accelerates 🛢️ Chinese imports already spiking +20% y/y Bessent called China "unreliable" for hoarding oil during the war instead of sharing with allies. Trump said "Xi needs oil. We don't." Now the Treasury is closing the financial escape hatch too. Water blockade + Financial blockade... Simultaneously. The summit just got a lot more complicated. Full breakdown in my latest article 👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan…

BREAKING: The US exported over 5 million barrels of oil per day last week, a record high, amid the Iran War. In aggregate, the US exported a record 12.7 million barrels of crude oil and refined products per day last week. As the Iran War leads to one of the largest energy disruptions in history, the US is capitalizing. Total exports will likely exceed 13 million barrels per day soon.

6 words The entire geopolitical chessboard. Donald Trump: "Xi is a person who needs oil. We don't." This is the whole game in one sentence. 🇺🇸 US: 23.6M bpd production. Record exports. 167 tankers loading. 🇨🇳 China: 75% of Middle East oil flows through Hormuz. Trump didn't blockade Hormuz to hurt Iran. He blockaded it to sit across from Xi. Every day Hormuz stays closed: 🇨🇳 China's economy slows 🇯🇵 Japan scrambles 🇰🇷 South Korea pays war premiums 🇪🇺 Europe hits empty reserves April 20th And America pumps record oil. Trump just found the replacement lever. Not the dollar. The barrel. Whoever controls energy controls foreign policy. Trump just told you exactly who that is. Full breakdown in my article 👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan…

🔥LATEST: AAVE DAO APPROVES $25M GRANT TO AAVE LABS Aave DAO greenlights ‘Aave Will Win’ proposal with a binding 75% approval, granting $25M in stablecoins and 75,000 AAVE to Aave Labs.

Trump est un négociateur redoutablement puissant. L’Iran a rapidement bloqué le détroit d’Ormuz, pensant que Trump utiliserait la force militaire pour le rouvrir et subir des pertes humaines. Mais Trump a vu clair dans leur jeu et a ri de leur manque de vision. Car en réalité, ils sont tombés dans son piège. Trump n’a même pas cherché à rouvrir le détroit. Il a appelé les autres pays utilisateurs à s’unir pour le rouvrir. L’Iran l’a traité de faible et s’est moqué de lui. Trump est resté discret et a profité de l’occasion pour attirer les clients du pétrole du Moyen-Orient, en faisant la promotion du pétrole américain auprès d’eux. Des pétroliers vides ont commencé à se diriger vers le golfe des États-Unis. L’Iran est alors revenu à la table des négociations avec des exigences totalement irréalistes pour rouvrir le détroit. À ce moment-là, Trump a activé son “plan E” et annoncé son intention de rejoindre l’Iran dans un blocage total du détroit d’Ormuz. En s’alignant sur ce blocage, il éliminerait le seul levier de pression de l’Iran et provoquerait l’intervention des grandes puissances dépendantes du détroit. Et seulement quelques heures après cette annonce, la Chine appelle déjà à la retenue des deux côtés et à la libre circulation dans le détroit d’Ormuz. « …la meilleure défense, c’est l’attaque. »

The myth of the Strait of Hormuz closure - April 13th. 89.25% of the 20M bpd oil supply has already been replaced or bypassed. 🏛️ 4.4M: IEA Reserve Release 📈 4.25M: Global Pre-War Supply Surplus 🇸🇦 4M: Saudi Petroline Yanbu Rerouting Exports 📉 2.0M: Demand Destruction due to 50% higher prices 🌎 1.5M: Americas Oil Production Surge 🇨🇳 1.1M: China Safe-Passage 🇦🇪 0.4M: UAE ADCOP Bypass 🇮🇳 0.2M: India Safe-Passage Total: 17.85M bpd Real deficit: 2.15M bpd. 2.15M bpd is one more oil large ULCC tanker per day. We are currently getting the loads of 2 ULCC tankers per day through the Strait and we need 1 more to close the deficit completely. However, we do need more LNG and sulphur tankers as they cannot be rerouted via pipelines. With a daily oil deficit of 5.1M bpd for China and 1.9M bpd for India and total oil reserves of 1.3B and 250M barrels respectively, China has runway of 8.5 months and India of 4.3 months if the Strait stayed as is for the whole time.

Nobody is talking about the 4d chess game Trump is actually playing... This was never about nuclear weapons, it was never about regime change, and it was never about democracy in Iran. It was always about making the world dependent on American energy. 20% of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Whoever controls that Strait controls the price of energy for the entire planet. Trump just blockaded it. Think about what that means.. Every country that needs oil has to come to America now. Not Iran. Not OPEC. Not Russia. America. This isn't a war. This is the largest energy power grab in human history dressed up as a conflict. When the "war" is over, America controls the straight, and everyone is dependent on US oil, we will see an economic BOOM like we've never seen before. Ignore the fear and the FUD, we are about to get filthy rich.

Stablecoins: the 21st century petrodollar recycling mechanism. The US has a $40T debt problem, a bond market that won’t cooperate, and no political will for austerity but there’s a plan hiding in plain sight. Let me explain. 🧵

BIGGER PICTURE: HORMUZ Iran’s main leverage is the Strait of Hormuz, with roughly 20% of global oil flows passing through it. By flexing control, the regime is playing its strongest card. But that move comes with MASSIVE consequences. Since the Hormuz is weaponized, the world will now accelerate its workarounds: •Saudi Arabia will most definitely expand its East-West pipeline capacity •Gulf states will begin invest heavily in alternative export routes •Israel will emerge as a potential corridor for energy transit These shifts won’t happen overnight, but they are now inevitable. What this means: The more Iran leans on Hormuz, the faster global energy flows reroute around it. Over time, that erodes Tehran’s leverage and cuts into its long-term power. Bottom line, we will see some short-term pressure as the regime plays its strongest hand. Long term, this is a massive strategic failure of historic scale that will come back to bite them very hard.