Gab

It's been almost 16 months since I started publishing my deep dives in public and 6 months since going paid. I thought it would be a good moment to pause and express my gratitude for the community that has formed around this work. When I first started writing, there were no expectations beyond wanting to think more clearly by documenting my process, and sharing ideas with like-minded individuals. The response since then has been far more encouraging than I could have imagined. I also think it’s an appropriate time to take stock of how things have been going and provide some transparency around the performance of these deep dives so far. I've published 13 deep dives to date, 10 bullish and 3 neutral. I have no interest in being bearish or short. If I don't like a business/stock, I simply don't buy it. Of the 10 bullish picks, 9 are currently in the green while 1 is in the red. One of the green positions has been closed, while the others continue to be held. Of the 3 bearish picks, all 3 are in the red as I write. On average: - Bullish picks: +38.7% - Bearish picks: -26.7% - SPY: +12.2% over the same period I must also acknowledge that I’ve been fortunate to have started this blog in the middle of a bull market, and the performance to date is by no means a reliable indicator of long-term success. I’m sector-agnostic, and these names span e-commerce, consumer discretionary, SaaS, infrastructure and more. It's still very early and I've thoroughly enjoyed the process thus far. There will definitely be drawdowns and mistakes ahead. As always, I'll stay transparent and share both the research and the outcomes, good and bad. Thank you to everyone who has been part of the journey, in particular to paid subs who continue to place their trust in an anonymous person from a tiny country in Southeast Asia. I hope to continue rewarding that faith by producing high-quality research grounded in facts, not hyperbole. ❤️

@a3voices It’s the bridge sessions with Buffett

@GabGrowth He invested everything in Berkshire just so they could endlessly keep it in treasuries! Lol

$MSFT I wouldn’t be concerned with this at all. Bill Gates is a terrible capital allocator. He owned 45% of $MSFT at IPO, while Ballmer owned 7-8%. Today, he owns less than 1% while Ballmer owns 4.5%, making Ballmer materially richer than him.

@mr4567890123 The fact is he’s gone from 45% to 1% in $MSFT shareholding. Argue with the fking wall.

@GabGrowth WTF man, he doesn't run his own fund, Michael Larson does. You are full of sht

@adamkhootrader They completed each other. Neither are the same alone.

I’m starting to think .. Maybe Charlie was really the stock picker and Buffett was the showman 😬

@davey_juice Appreciate the sharing

Btw I have some conclusions on the ground in Brazil Will keep short for now $meli has lost some share to $se $nu has lost potential spend and share to $intr $se standing out for being cheap but more reliable than Chinese $intr Brazilians who travel like their benefits Don't know how much but banking is not meant to be monopolistic re $nu I think also $nu way ahead and is more entrenched in b2b and that's super underrated and they're creating more super app w many features that no other banks offer and I think it's relatively sticky

@zeroxkyle @VivianBala It also looks like he used Claude to make those slides?

This is amazing - we have Singapore's Minister of Foreign Affairs @VivianBala explaining how he uses a Nanoclaw on Raspberry PI This is a gem; He says the barriers to accessibility have collapsed - his setup was not created by him; and that memory is the next frontier (LOL)

@trydotworks Agree

@GabGrowth SE are definitely not paying for ChatGPT, Duolingo benefits, nor the partner vouchers. If anything they are getting paid for exposing their members to their offers - it's one of the highest quality segment you'll find in the region.

$SE a few thoughts on the VIP program In the past few quarters, while Shopee has been relentlessly investing in logistics and VIP, profits have actually remained pretty stable. Adj. EBITDA / % of GMV: Q2 2025: $228M / 0.77% Q3 2025: $186M / 0.60% Q4 2025: $202M / 0.55% Q1 2026: $223M / 0.60% In that time, VIP members have gone from 0 to 10M, generating over $20M per month (assuming $2 per month pricing on average) in recurring revenue. Annualised, that is $240M, which is the same level of profitability the business earns per quarter today. They’ve been extremely generous with benefits (ranges country to country). Let’s see with an anecdotal example. In Singapore, they charge $3.99 SGD for the monthly sub. In return, benefits are: - Extra 3% cashback on all purchases - Monthly 400 Shopee Coins (worth $4) - 99x free doorstep delivery - ChatGPT Go (3 months free) - Super Duolingo (1 month free) - Various other vouchers (Shell, Trip.com, Pizza Hut, Surrey Hills, Circles.Life, Monee Insurance) On an aggregate basis, this is probably worth upwards of $15 for the average user. The more interesting question will be with regard to cost. There is obviously no clear way to determine it, but from the cadence of profitability within the business despite aggressive expansion, it appears the VIP program is structurally more profitable than it first looks. A few reasons why: - Many benefits likely have very low marginal cost to Shopee - Partner perks are probably subsidised/co-marketed - Free shipping improves order density and logistics efficiency - Cashback largely recirculates within the ecosystem - VIP users have significantly lower churn (80% retention rate) - Higher frequency drives ad monetisation (not to forget FinTech) I think this is a real needle mover, especially as Shopee scales member counts to 20, 30, 40M. Today, the average VIP member spends 9.75x more than the average non-VIP member. Over time, this will come down as each incremental sign up is less likely to be a power user. Still, I expect that Shopee can scale VIP members from the current 2.5% penetration to 15% minimum. If they were to spend 5x the amount of the average non-VIP member, that would generate over 75% of GMV. (Pareto Principle in action) This doesn’t include Brazil, which I expect will do very well and has started rolling out in April (not included in Q1 numbers) @the_zack_zhu is forecasting ~40-50% QoQ growth for VIP members by end-2026 which I largely agree with. This is the last step towards Shopee building out their moat, with the key purpose (imo) of extending their moat vs TikTok Shop. So far, GMV metrics have proven that this strategy works. What impresses me most as I mentioned above, is just how profitable the VIP program likely is, not just because of the subscription revenue, but the incremental GMV spend and low cost structure of perks.

Stan Druckenmiller increased his $SE position by 16.5% and sold out of his $MELI position in Q1 2026.

$SE ShopeeVIP’s newest partner seems to be $DUOL. Members now get 1-month free Super Duolingo alongside several other perks like ChatGPT Go.

Literally got more likes on the platform that shall not be named, and you know how hard it is to get likes on that.

Seems like X has sort of abandoned articles. Lowest reach of any post in weeks, even though it was literally the hot topic of the day.

@Mindventure_ Yup

@GabGrowth It doesn't get surfaced at all. Substack is still the king I guess

Thanks for sharing. As I think more about it, I think the possibility would be that X’s algo prioritises articles where people stick for a medium amount of time to read. Readability and hooks are therefore key in such a situation. Short posts enables people to read it immediately and not stop to think. Long posts make people scroll away because of short attention spans.

@GabGrowth I could be wrong, but it feels like the X algorithm is prioritizing posts with a medium level of depth. Very short posts with nothing much added aren’t doing well but neither are the super long ones like your Cerebras article. At least, that’s how it’s been for me

@HyperTechInvest Too early to tell. Cathie was a God for a couple of years at least. Leopold has only been lauded for less than a year so far.

Leopold is what Cathie Wood wanted to be in 2021

@ariaradnia It’s a shame because I used to look up to him. Sad that he doesn’t do what he preaches.

Terry Smith has lost the plot, just $INTU alone has been a complete disaster for him over the past 4~ years - Owned $INTU for years - Starting selling in 2022 after it fell to $400-$500 - Bought back in at $600, averaged up as high as $787 - Just sold in Q1 And unless he sold in the first 2 weeks of the year he almost CERTAINLY lost a sh*t ton of money on it

Bro went there to sell soybeans

My $SE earnings review is live. I discuss: - Shopee (VIP, Ads, Logistics) - Monee (Brazil, Off-Book Loans) - Garena (Free Fire, Arena of Valor) - Key Management Commentary - Personal Thoughts and Plans gabgrowth.com/p/sea-limited-…

@alexanderbittan 😂 You’ll be fine buddy, you got Anduril coming

@GabGrowth my guy i have a lockup period for my shares please relax with these posts 🤣

$FIG IPO-ed last year, with shares 40x oversubscribed, priced at $33, eventually opening at $85, soared to close at $115.50. At $85, the stock traded at $50B on a trailing revenues of $250M, implying a 200x P/S ratio. Sounds familiar? $CBRS