Gab

It's been almost 16 months since I started publishing my deep dives in public and 6 months since going paid. I thought it would be a good moment to pause and express my gratitude for the community that has formed around this work. When I first started writing, there were no expectations beyond wanting to think more clearly by documenting my process, and sharing ideas with like-minded individuals. The response since then has been far more encouraging than I could have imagined. I also think it’s an appropriate time to take stock of how things have been going and provide some transparency around the performance of these deep dives so far. I've published 13 deep dives to date, 10 bullish and 3 neutral. I have no interest in being bearish or short. If I don't like a business/stock, I simply don't buy it. Of the 10 bullish picks, 9 are currently in the green while 1 is in the red. One of the green positions has been closed, while the others continue to be held. Of the 3 bearish picks, all 3 are in the red as I write. On average: - Bullish picks: +38.7% - Bearish picks: -26.7% - SPY: +12.2% over the same period I must also acknowledge that I’ve been fortunate to have started this blog in the middle of a bull market, and the performance to date is by no means a reliable indicator of long-term success. I’m sector-agnostic, and these names span e-commerce, consumer discretionary, SaaS, infrastructure and more. It's still very early and I've thoroughly enjoyed the process thus far. There will definitely be drawdowns and mistakes ahead. As always, I'll stay transparent and share both the research and the outcomes, good and bad. Thank you to everyone who has been part of the journey, in particular to paid subs who continue to place their trust in an anonymous person from a tiny country in Southeast Asia. I hope to continue rewarding that faith by producing high-quality research grounded in facts, not hyperbole. ❤️

@CapexAndChill Shopee has the tailwind of increasing AOV going for it. I think 30% GMV growth in Brazil wouldn’t be an issue.

So if $SE did US$127B in GMV in FY 2025 and estimates put their Brazil GMV at R$70B which is ~US$14B, that means Brazil is ~11% of Shopee's global GMV. Since their global average was 27%, and estimates were that their GMV in 2024 was R$50-60B this implies Brazil grew roughly ~30% YoY. $MELI's FXN GMV in Brazil grew exactly 35% YoY in Q4 2025. Industry estimates put $MELI's market share in Brazil at ~35-39%, with Shopee at ~15%. In order for Shopee's GMV growth to hit ~30% YoY in Brazil in 2026, they will need Shopee Mall to grow A LOT. It roughly doubled in 2025.

@ValleyFallsRI Not a take, merely an observation. I have no dog in this fight.

@GabGrowth That’s a rather cheery way of looking at it. Meanwhile Tencent can just print whatever numbers they feel like each quarter.

$BABA saw a massive miss in EPS, largely attributable to investments in quick commerce. This should not be a surprise for those who read our recent quick commerce article that we released for free. This is not merely a battle for quick commerce dominance. It’s a battle for consumer behaviour at scale. Once a platform owns daily usage, it can expand into everything else: - Increasing retention - Wallet share - Monetisation across all of commerce @the_zack_zhu

I will cover my personal thoughts on these in my earnings review that I hope to publish in the coming week (schedule permitting).

Many of these points have been covered in previous calls, and imo, the questions by analysts were pretty repetitive. A large majority of the questions were also overly focused on the short term- 6-12 months ahead. I thought Pedro did very well, as usual, in answering the questions and it was a great showing again by management.

Key takeaways from the $DLO call 🧵👇