🛸 FROG-TZU 🛸

@Mr_Derivatives x.com/therealnasa00/…

If $IGV drops another 4-5% tomorrow you almost have to entertain the idea of a tiny subway sandwich worth of a yolo right? RIGHT!!?? Hello..?

7-7:15 am Est 4/13/26' Do we sell o/n and get headline they front run again before open ? Just something I'm watch imo.

@financialjuice “ Iran didn’t close the strait. I did. Everyone knows it. “

🔴 Trump: Effective immediately, US Navy will begin process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave Strait of Hormuz. - Truth Social

TRUMP: IF I CATCH CHINA GIVING IRAN ARMS, IT'D GET 50% TARIFF

One of the more interesting parts of the SaaSocalypse that started with Anthropic's takeover is who the early investors were. $AMZN, $GOOGL, and others are posting amazing returns in the private markets ahead of the anticipated Anthropic IPO. However, the most interesting name on this list imo is $CRM. They participated in funding rounds back to 2023 and took about a 1% stake that would now be worth about $3.8 billion. With the haircut in software this year and CRM now trading around $165, this would be worth about 2%+ of their market cap. The stock is down about 40% this year due to Anthropic and Claude, yet it is invested (conservatively) in its own demise. Also, with the haircut this year it makes the stake a larger percentage of the company vs last year. Just interesting to see and honestly not talked about enough imo. If you think SaaS ever bounces, well, CRM might have a story behind it.

@therealnasa00/note/c-239824507?r=80q9zi&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@therealnasa00…

@DarkKnightofWS @TDWPband I can’t dm you but you won a 50k lucid. So later today help me find a way to send it over to you.

Such a killer EP. This was peak @TDWPband 🤌

open.spotify.com/episode/37OFPF… Claude make another banger episode of the BID/ASK podcast. Make no mistakes #crypto #macro $SPY $SPX

@theaiportfolios You break it. You buy it.

Breaking: Claude just bought two new stocks bc of the March CPI print Last week we gave Claude agents $50,000 to see how well they do at picking in stocks So far, they've already outperformed the SPY Today, they just bought two new stocks: 🟢 1. "BUY $NOW ServiceNow — New Position at 8% ServiceNow is the portfolio's first direct entry into enterprise workflow SaaS, and we're initiating because the market just handed us a gift wrapped in a category error. On April 8, Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents, a cloud-hosted AI agent platform for enterprise. The market read this as "AI will replace SaaS" and sold NOW down 7.56% to $89.53, a 52-week low. Down 58% from its high of $211. What the selloff missed: ServiceNow is an Anthropic design partner. Claude is the default model powering the ServiceNow Build Agent platform. This company is not a victim of the AI agent buildout. It is infrastructure for it. The valuation: 24x forward P/E against a 5-year average of 50 to 55x. That's a 50%+ discount to its own history. Still guiding roughly 20% subscription growth, 32% operating margins, 36% FCF margins. This is a strong business at an irrationally cheap multiple. Street consensus PT: $185, which is +107% from our entry. The risk that matters: Q1 guide cut to below 19% subscription growth would break the thesis and push the stock to $75-80. At 8% weight, that full bear outcome costs roughly 1.6% of portfolio. The base case delivers +2.4%. Today's CPI makes this entry even better. Core came in cool at +0.2% MoM and +2.6% YoY, below consensus. That's a direct tailwind for long-duration SaaS multiples. Rate cut odds improve on this core read." 🟢 "2. BUY $ICE Intercontinental Exchange — New Position at 7% ICE is the NYSE parent, the largest energy futures exchange, plus mortgage tech and fixed income data. About 55% of revenue is recurring subscriptions. March 2026 set the all-time monthly volume record: 428.9M contracts, +88% average daily volume. Oil futures up 85%. Rates futures up 140%. The Iran/Hormuz crisis is printing money for ICE's transaction business. Here's what makes ICE special in this portfolio: it wins in BOTH macro scenarios. Hormuz stays impaired? Energy vol stays elevated, transaction fees keep printing. Hormuz reopens cleanly? Fed gets room to cut, rate futures volume surges, mortgage tech recovers on the refi wave. There is no macro scenario where ICE loses. Valuation: 22.98x forward vs peer CME Group at 25.41x. Similar business, more diversification (mortgage tech, data), yet trades at a discount. UBS raised their Q1 EPS estimate to $2.26 versus street consensus of $2.00. That's a 13% beat baked into one analyst's model. Apr 30 Q1 earnings is the catalyst. The risk: $20.3B debt from the Black Knight acquisition. If rates stay higher for longer, the interest burden bites. And a clean Hormuz reopen would normalize energy volumes back to baseline. The record March was crisis-driven, not structural. Today's CPI is perfect for ICE. Gasoline +21.2% MoM (largest since 1967) plus a split headline/core narrative = maximum confusion in the rates market = maximum trading volume. ICE gets paid on the vol, not the direction." 🔴 "3. SELL $APO Apollo Global — Full Exit Apollo entered the portfolio as a high-quality alternative asset manager at a reasonable valuation. The thesis broke when a securities class action arrived and escalated fast. The case is Feldman v. Apollo, filed in SDNY. CEO Marc Rowan is directly named in Epstein discovery documents. This is categorically different from the 2020 Leon Black matter, which Apollo survived by installing new leadership. Here, Rowan IS the leadership. May 1 is the lead plaintiff deadline, and the recruitment phase is peaking. As of yesterday, 10+ law firms are actively soliciting plaintiffs. Goldman cut PT $169 to $134 on Apr 7. Piper Sandler cut $165 to $146. Barclays cut $131 to $125. Three bulge bracket cuts in 48 hours. Stanford/Cornerstone settlement math: 3-8% of the $12B February decline = $360M to $960M settlement range. Claude deep research estimates roughly 55% probability this tail is real and currently unpriced in consensus EPS. Three-week expected value runs negative 4% to negative 15%, skewed to the downside." 🔴 "4. SELL $GD General Dynamics — Full Exit General Dynamics was a defense prime with a $118B backlog, Columbia-class submarines, and the G800 ramp. The thesis was defense spending supercycle plus best-in-class execution. Three broker downgrades in one week. Deutsche Bank cut to Hold on Apr 7. Jefferies cut to Hold at $380 the same week. Citi had already cut to Neutral at $380 on Apr 2. All three cite the identical thesis: Q1 consensus revenue growth of +4% is roughly 300 basis points too high. Then the insiders. CEO Novakovic plus two EVPs sold $18.1M of stock on March 11, six weeks before the Apr 22 earnings print. When three analysts say the quarter will miss and the C-suite is dumping shares, you listen. BNP Paribas raised their PT to $430 on the same day Deutsche downgraded. The bull case exists. But it requires a fifth consecutive earnings beat that three of the most active defense desks now explicitly model as a miss. Expected 12M return: +4.3% probability-weighted. Below our portfolio hurdle. Firm score 82, the weakest tier among our holdings. The structural defense story (NATO 5% GDP, Columbia subs, Gulf stream backlog) is not dead. It's just 2-3 quarters away from showing in the numbers. We can re-enter at a better price after the Apr 22 print if the thesis repairs." New updated portfolio: $VST | 10.3% $TMO | 8.9% $LLY | 8.1% $NOW | 7.6% $AVGO | 7.3% $CI | 7.1% $GLD | 7.1% $ICE | 6.8% $HALO | 6.2% $BAH | 6.0% $OKTA | 5.7% $DVN | 5.6% $MA | 4.9% $AU | 4.4% $MSFT | 4.1% Performance since inception: Claude: +2.68% SPY: -0.25% As a reminder, this is a public long term project to see how well Claude does We have 0 idea nor 0 expectation on how this will do, but we'll be sharing all updates here publicly and consistently no matter how good or bad Claude does See following tweet for information on how to invest alongside

Software earnings estimates are at record highs. Software stocks are about 30% off their highs. One of those has to be wrong....RIGHT ??? The selloff is based on a thesis that the market is pricing in the end of SaaS as we know it. It started with Claude 3.5 Sonnet in June 24' , but became more intense in early 25' when agentic workflows went mainstream. Tools like Cursor and Copilot showed they could replace entire SaaS workflows rather than just assist them, and DeepSeek reinforced the idea that frontier AI was coming faster than expected. Now we are seeing the results of this in the markets as repricing of SaaS names happens in real time. Now the question the market is asking is simple. Why pay for Salesforce when an agent manages your CRM, why pay for ServiceNow when an agent handles your tickets, why pay for Workday when an agent runs HR workflows. Why do we need to pay / have these extra expenses when an ai agent can simply do the task at a fraction of the price. What do we need these SaaS companies for ? Are they cheap or fairly valued now . Or are they discounted based on the outlook that ai agents are stealing their lunch. Thus far the markets are pricing in a lot of negatives and fear as we see an average of 37.84% drawdown on the basket to start the year. However, we are seeing the earnings growth and estimates continue to come in around 30% y/y for many of these names. Either estimates are about to fall sharply and the market is right, or estimates hold, software proves more durable than feared, and these names look attractive at these valuations. What do you guys think ? SaaSpacolypse ?? Or over reaction ? $IGV $MSFT $TEAM $HUBS $ORCL

@AlexJonesIA “Claude make the stock cheaper so I can enter , make no mistakes “

$NOW

Cpi in the morning and a big spike coming. Question is this a 1 of from the war ? Or does it stay in the system for months as it bleeds into other sectors ? How does this effect metals , the dollar , and crypto ....

@mb_ghalibaf : I would love to have you join my podcast and discuss what is going on in Iran today. I think the people need to hear it from your perspective. There is too much unknown and the world needs to have clarity. open.spotify.com/show/46rieujLQ…

@lanto2x They sell for 6-8k now.

This buss down Cartier looking at me some type of way rn. How hypocritical it would be… 😂 Might pick it up before I head back to PR

@Shinobbs @JckCapital @Wordsofrizdom open.spotify.com/episode/28fzzy…

@JckCapital @Wordsofrizdom

Is it me or are trading podcasts just played out and boring at this point. The day in the lives and following the trader around and seeing their day to day is much more fun to watch imo.

Episode 13 is now live on Spotify and Apple podcast : open.spotify.com/episode/28fzzy…

@DjWhatchya @DeItaone @BidtoaskPodcast !!

@DeItaone @TheRealNasa00 You called this over a month ago

TRUMP EYES IRAN OIL POWER PLAY Donald Trump is considering a bold idea: seizing Iran’s oil to boost U.S. energy dominance and gain leverage over China. He openly suggested the move, arguing the U.S. could profit and strengthen its global position—though he acknowledged Americans are wary of deeper involvement in the Middle East. The strategy reflects Trump’s belief that controlling oil equals geopolitical power. His thinking is that limiting Iran’s exports—especially to China—could weaken Beijing’s position in trade and supply chains. But the plan faces major obstacles. Taking control of Iran’s energy sector would require significant military commitment, raise legal concerns, and likely face public opposition at home. Meanwhile, China may be less vulnerable than expected. It has built reserves, expanded domestic energy production, and invested heavily in renewables, giving it resilience against supply shocks. For now, no formal plan exists. Trump’s idea remains speculative—part strategy, part signal—as tensions, oil prices, and global power dynamics continue to shift.

$TLT Talk about this in depth on the Substack below , but something I am watching into this cpi print is tlt. How will odds of a cut / hike shift after this 1% spike in inflation ? CPI ↑ → Hike odds ↑ → Yields ↑ → TLT ↓ Worth watching imo incase base case on cuts / hikes shift after the print. 4/17 chain makes sense for opex . Also note IV on tlt is sitting at roughly 11.9% with an iv rank somewhere between 19 and 32%. that is near the low end of the past year. Does not seem to be priced in at all imo.

Happy Easter from Donald J Trump (This is not satire)