Timothy

🚨🇺🇸 The U.S. does not actually control the Strait of Hormuz despite official claims. Major General Randy Manner, retired U.S. Army officer and defense analyst, says if the U.S. had control, trade would be flowing freely. Any statements claiming control are propaganda.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Pentagon just put a number on what the blockade has cost Iran: nearly $5 billion in lost oil revenue... Defense Department estimates show the U.S. blockade in the Gulf of Oman has denied Iran roughly $4.8 billion in oil revenue since it launched on April 13. Thirty-one tankers laden with 53 million barrels of Iranian crude are physically stuck in the Gulf, unable to reach buyers. Two have been seized by U.S. forces. More than 40 total vessels have been redirected attempting to break through. The crisis on the Iranian side keeps deepening. Onshore storage is approaching capacity. Iran has started using older tankers as floating storage just to keep producing. Some shipments are now taking longer, costlier routes to reach China to avoid American interdiction. The system designed to evade sanctions for years is breaking under pressure designed to compress the timeline to weeks. Eurasia Group's analyst Gregory Brew estimated Iran is "several weeks, or perhaps as much as a month, away from running out of storage." Once that hits, Iran has to choose between shutting in production, which permanently damages oil fields with low pressure, or attempting what TankerTrackerscom co-founder Samir Madani calls a "Great Escape." Madani told Axios he expects the Iranians will eventually try an overnight mass breakout of tankers bottled up near the Pakistan border. That scenario is the wildcard. Dozens of fully loaded supertankers attempting simultaneous jailbreak from Iranian waters would force the U.S. Navy to choose between firing on civilian ships, allowing major sanctions evasion, or some combination of both. There is no good outcome from a "Great Escape" once it starts. The Pentagon's framing was unusually direct. Acting press secretary Joel Valdez: the blockade is "operating with full force and delivering the decisive impact we intended... we are inflicting a devastating blow to the Iranian regime's ability to fund terrorism and regional destabilization." Bascially, this is working. Trump's logic for settling into the extended blockade reported earlier this week is being validated by the numbers. $5 billion in lost revenue in less than three weeks is the kind of damage that compounds very quickly. Source: Axios, CENTCOM

🚨🇺🇸 The U.S. could run out of critical weapons if the war continues. Major General Randy Manner, retired U.S. Army officer and defense analyst, says munitions could take years to replace after heavy use. And current strategy risks leaving the country unable to defend itself.

🇮🇷 Iran's FM Araghchi just called the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and the EU's foreign policy chief. All in one day. The message: here's where Tehran stands, here's our latest proposal. That same proposal was quietly handed to Pakistan to pass to Washington. One conversation public. One conversation through the back channel. Sources: Mehr News Agency, WANA News Agency, IRNA

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is reportedly considering mine-carrying dolphins to attack US warships in the Strait of Hormuz. Yes, really. Dolphins, with mines. Also on the table: submarines into the strait, and cutting the undersea internet cables running through it, which would knock out global communications for a significant chunk of the world. Source: NY Post

Sen. Rick Scott on how much he's willing to spend on the Iran war: "I don't know how you put a price tag on... somebody's ability to kill you?"

🇺🇸🇩🇪 Trump fires at Germany's Merz for disagreeing on Iran's nuclear program: "If you disagree with me on nuclear weapons for Iran, you're doing a great disservice to the people of Germany. How has he done with Ukraine?"

🇮🇷 Khamenei's full Persian Gulf Day address in summary: - Frames Iran as the Gulf's historic defender, from expelling Portugal to resisting British colonialism - Calls the Islamic Revolution the turning point that ended foreign domination of the region - Says the last 60 days proved Iran's naval forces can stand up to the world's biggest military - Declares America's presence "the most important cause of insecurity" in the Gulf - Says U.S. bases are too fragile to protect even themselves, let alone their Gulf allies - Announces "new management" of the Strait of Hormuz will bring peace and economic benefits to all Gulf nations - "The bright future of the Persian Gulf will be without America" - "Foreigners who maliciously covet from thousands of kilometers away have no place there except at the bottom of its waters" - Calls this moment "the dawn of a new regional and global order" Full statements: "The strategic asset, Strait of Hormuz, has aroused the greed of many devils over past centuries, and the history of repeated invasions by European and American foreigners, insecurities, damages, and numerous threats to the countries of the region is only a glimpse of the sinister plans of the world's oppressors against the inhabitants of the Persian Gulf region. The latest example of which was the recent provocations by the Great Satan. The Iranian nation, which has the longest land coastline along the Persian Gulf, has made the greatest sacrifices for the independence of the Persian Gulf and in confronting foreigners and aggressors. From expelling the Portuguese and liberating the Strait of Hormuz to fighting against Dutch colonialism and the heroic resistance against British colonialism, and so much more. However, the Islamic Revolution was a turning point in these resistances, shortening the hands of oppressors from the Persian Gulf region. Today, two months after the largest military campaign and the arrogant aggression of the world's bullies in the region and the disgraceful defeat of America in its plan, a new chapter for the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz is being written. The peoples of the Persian Gulf region, who for many years had become accustomed to the silence and submission of their rulers in the face of bullies and aggressors, have witnessed in the past sixty days the beautiful manifestations of firmness, vigilance, and the heroic struggle of the naval forces of the Army and the IRGC. The presence of American foreigners and their nesting and establishment in the lands of the Persian Gulf is the most important cause of insecurity in the region. The fragile American bases do not have the capacity to ensure their own security, let alone hope to provide security for the dependents and America-worshippers of the region. By the power and might of God, the bright future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without America and in the service of the progress, comfort, and welfare of its peoples. We are 'fellow destinies' with our neighbors in the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and foreigners who maliciously covet from thousands of kilometers away have no place there except at the bottom of its waters. This chain of victories, achieved by the grace of God and through the policies of resistance and the strategy of a strong Iran, will mark the dawn of a new regional and global order. Islamic Iran, with practical gratitude for the blessing of managing the Strait of Hormuz, will secure the Persian Gulf region and remove the enemy's hostile abuses from this waterway. The legal rules and the new management of the Strait of Hormuz will bring comfort and progress for the benefit of all the nations of the region, and its economic blessings will bring joy to the hearts of the people, God willing, even if the disbelievers dislike it."

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump: I think Putin was ready to make a deal a while ago; I think “some people” made it difficult for him to make a deal.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 "WE'VE BASICALLY LOST THIS WAR" That's John Mearsheimer, the most influential realist IR scholar in America, on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. His read: Iran will never surrender control of the strait. It's their only real leverage. Giving it up would be strategically insane.