Tornado Probability Calculator (TPC)

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… TPCV5 is here after a good long while of taking a break from the project. Heres whats new *Redid how CINH is accounted *Adjusted MLCAPE *Changed layout to be more clear. *Added a new storm mode *Adjusted scale *Changed layout colors #wxtwitter

Never ran the equation yesterday (I forgot) but I did this morning and the result for yesterday via the 12z TPC run using 09z data was only a low end 5% lol

We had a vision 😭😭😭

TPC 12Z 3/10/26 - 12Z 3/11/26 15%# several tornadoes possible some being strong Location: central Illinois to the border of Indiana #wxtwitter

TPC 12Z 3/9/26 - 12Z 3/10/26 5% a few tornadoes possible Location: Northern Louisiana/Southern Arkansas #wxtwitter

Guys the TPC site is here! Kinda. There are a few major bugs still, such as an issue with rounding the TPC number to the correct SPC equivalent risk level, you will also notice a feature where you can upload soundings however that currently is broken and will be fixed tomorrow! Try it out now here storm-calc-pro.base44.app #wxtwitter

Just a few hiccups to work out and this will be released tomorrow, we added *a way to save images *fixed a few bugs #wxtwitter

TPC 12Z 3/7/26 - 12Z 3/8/26 5% a few tornadoes possible Location: along the Lake Erie shoreline stretching from Ashtabula to Dunkirk and extending about 50 miles inland #wxtwitter

TPC 12Z 3/6/26 - 12Z 3/7/26 10% a few tornadoes including a strong one possible Location: Near the border of OK/KS towards areas like Bartlesville and Cedar Vale #wxtwitter

Made some cosmetic changes to the website #wxtwitter

Coming soon to @TPCOfficialACC .. #wxtwitter

Because the 12Z forecast was already made I can’t change it however the 15Z RAP has a 5% in southern MO #wxtwitter

Reminder that I don’t just make daily tornado forecasts! My main goal is to be used by you! I will pin the link to my page which takes you to my website where you can try me for yourself. #wxtwitter

TPC 12Z 3/4/26 - 12Z 3/5/26 2% a couple tornadoes possible Locations: an extended corridor from Dallas TX-Springfield MO-Cape Girardeau MO #wxtwitter

Good morning, 12z will run like normal unlike last nights 00z

I make ONE mistake while messing with settings smh

@MXWX_Weather @MontyHickmanWx Shut up

@MontyHickmanWx I always knew TPC was a chud

OHHHH LOOK AT THE STP LOOK AT THE UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS THIS IS GOING TO BE WORSE THAN APRIL 27TH 2011 THIS IS GOING TO BE A KILLER, MEGA STORM OF THE CENTURY

TPC 00z 3/3/26 - 12Z 3/4/26 60%# several violent to devastating tornadoes likely Location: Western Massachusetts #wxtwitter

No, we do not plan on adding the SPCs method of forecasting at this time as TPC isn’t compatible #wxtwitter

No hate WHATSOEVER to nadocast, it’s a brilliant model. But! A key difference I’ve noticed between us is how CINH is acccounted, it appears that nadocast doesn’t swing as low in probability as TPC when a CAP is in place, two very different methods of calculating. #wxtwitter

TPC 12Z 3/2/26 - 12Z 3/3/26 2% a couple tornadoes possible Location: Eastern Oklahoma #wxtwitter