

High-Beta Baker
1.3K posts

@TRSINV
Cooking up alpha in a beta world & Chasing all-time highs. ๐ถ๏ธ 420% focus on technicals. If you can't stand the heat, get out of my kitchen. $SPY $QQQ."




A European mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz apparently conceived by Macron - taking place only AFTER hostilities have ceased - only operating with Iran's agreement - explicitly excluding the US - China is invited to participate wsj.com/world/europe/eโฆ











$SPY $MOVE THE MOST IMPORTANT CHART THIS WEEKEND ๐ Everyone searching for a sign of a bottom, and the correct answer is nobody really really knows, howeverโฆ The ICE MOVE Index (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate) is the "VIX for Treasuriesโ Large spikes in treasury volatility (which are rare) have marked every single short term, intermediate term, and longer term bottoms, the chart clearly shows that. Especially when there isโฆA LARGER SPIKE ๐ง A 40% move in the $MOVE index is very large. I donโt think itโs a coincidence that an almost perfect trendline (highlighted in yellow) has marked the previous two largest peaks with where we are now ๐ค Many donโt know that in the world of deep economics and treasury markets, that there is โstealthโ QE5 going on right now, it is called RMPโs (Reverse Management Purchases), it is basically the FED buying short term treasuries to give the banks reserves/liquidity ๐ฆ So in that backdrop there should be less implied volatility in the treasury world, and another piece of context that has caused all the spikes evaaa evaaah in the $MOVE index is Major FED Decisions on monetary policy and Geo Political ShocksโฆhmmmโฆI wonder if we have one of those right now ๐คจ Itโs almost impossible to chart a news driven event that clearly moves and marches to the beat of one manโs thoughts, Iranโs replies, and the price of a Barrel of oilโฆ but this charts is VERY VERY interesting! Hope you enjoyed the research, much love ๐๐๐๐








