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@hunt_angela @BenefitUK This is the back story for you bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

@BenefitUK Don't know the back story to this but what a gracious apology and how refreshing that you accept responsibility for whatever it is.

We never meant to exclude anyone, especially not our incredible NHS staff and Key Workers. Thank you for your feedback, we’ve listened and we’ve amended our policy, which was reissued today. We’re sorry we got it so wrong. We deeply regret all upset that has been caused.

@CRobertsUK @VaccineStatusUK What we would be useful for us mortals would be if you geniuses could make available ALL assumptions as you guysarrive at different conclusions just because you have vastly different assumptions.... More details please!!!

@VaccineStatusUK Great to hear - happy to help if you'd like to discuss logic 😊👍

Predictions🔮are currently disabled after it was noticed that some of the plotted data did not make sense. After a quick check, it appears that some of our plotting automations went haywire. Thanks @CRobertsUK for the heads-up. More on this as we find out what went wrong!🤗

@VaccineStatusUK From vaccine-tracker.uk

2️⃣ Second Doses Update on 7 April 📢 186,793 new doses administered yesterday (06 April) across the UK🇬🇧 Total 2nd Doses: 5,683,509 📈+189% day on day rate 📉-33% week on week rate 📉7-day average of 222,518 (-2% week on week) #vaccine #COVID19

@VaccineStatusUK The new model seems to be overly cautious now... What happens mid to end August? No injection at all? I guess the NHS, GP and volunteers will still inject even if it's not 12 weeks between 1st and 2nd doses .. Always very interesting though!

🔮Predicted Timeline Update on 06 April 10 April➡️All Priority Groups received a 1st dose 19 June➡️All Priority Groups received 2 doses 23 August➡️All Adults received a 1st dose 29 October➡️All Adults received 2 doses Based on current trends, supply, and second doses debt

@michaelcullumuk @VaccineStatusUK I have the feeling the inventor assumes 50% of the 7 day average total injections goes to 1st dose, which in the current easter lull is too optimistic for the April target. It would be good to have all assumptions to understand the usefulness of the model predictions.

@VaccineStatusUK What is being used to predict that we will hit 32m first doses on the 6th April? For several days the 7 day average has been <200k daily first doses and we've got 400k 1st doses remaining. Each day the tweet on this prediction has just been saying the following day.

Targets scorecards 🎯 on 5 April ✅32M by 15 Apr (9 days early on 06/04) ❌53M by 31 Jul (12 days late on 12/08) Those predictions are for 1st doses, and take into account the current combined 7-day average as well as the growing second doses debt. #vaccine #COVIDVaccine

@andyr_1979 @VaccineStatusUK The creator of the model will likely answer but given the number of 1st doses has collapsed over the past week and the forecast is partially based on historical data, no surprise at all. Tomorrow the model will show the July target will be missed.

@VaccineStatusUK How come there is such a massive change in the dates of the adult population? Has changed by 10 days since yesterday? Is that because of the change in average numbers? Maths isn't my strong point so may be missing something

Targets scorecards 🎯 on 04 April ✅32M by 15 Apr (10 days early on 05/04) ✅53M by 31 Jul (1 days early on 30/07) Those predictions are for 1st doses, and take into account the current combined 7-day average as well as the growing second doses debt. #vaccine #COVIDVaccine

@VaccineStatusUK With Easter, the current delivery issues and focus on 2nd jabs, my guess is your model will show the July 1st jab target will be missed.

Targets scorecards 🎯 on 3 April ✅32M by 15 Apr (11 days early on 04/04) ✅53M by 31 Jul (11 days early on 20/07) Those predictions are for 1st doses, and take into account the current combined 7-day average as well as the growing second doses debt. #vaccine #COVIDVaccine

@RavellingYarns @VaccineStatusUK I wouldn't worry too much. The gvnmnt will always give 2nd jab priority. That's why 1st doses are already decelerating & will probably further fall in April. The model on this feed (1st jabs will be hit 30 day earlier than gvt target) may be too optimistic.

@VaccineStatusUK So just how are they going to deliver another 18m second doses by the beginning of May? That's when my 2nd dose is due at 12 weeks and I was vaccinated around 20m. Not looking good is it?

2️⃣ Second Doses Update on 24 March 📢 169,155 new doses administered yesterday (23 March) across the UK🇬🇧 Total 2nd Doses: 2,532,839 📈+106% day on day rate 📈+77% week on week rate 📈7-day average of 110,485 (+53% week on week) #vaccine #COVID19

@Telegraph I hope you haven't sent this to print... There is a massive typo: in red "491936 daily coronavirus cases"...!! lockdown now!!

The front page of tomorrow's Daily Telegraph: 'Care home staff to face compulsory vaccination' #TomorrowsPapersToday 📩 Sign up for the Front Page newsletter telegraph.co.uk/frontpage-news…

@VaccineStatusUK It's amazing you spend so much time and effort for this tool! Many thanks!

@TTDLon We handle doses from before early January (start of daily data releases) but it is currently done in a rather naive/crude way. This will be part of an upcoming update.

🔮Predicted Timeline Update on 20 March 29 March➡️All Priority Groups received a 1st dose 21 June➡️All Priority Groups received 2 doses 15 July➡️All Adults received a 1st dose 10 August➡️All Adults received 2 doses Based on current trends, supply, and second doses debt

@Charleyy_Louise @One_Mikky @VaccineStatusUK I am pretty sure There is a bug in the model. The assumptions from the creator of this assumes that "2nd dose have priority over 1st dose" and that there is a "strict 12w between the doses" (see previous images/tweets) , which is clearly not the case

@One_Mikky @VaccineStatusUK It’s any time from 3 weeks up to 12 weeks. That was only the extended timeframe to allow more first doses.

@VaccineStatusUK Really interesting. Many thanks for the analysis. Would be interesting to see the sensitivity eg what happens if due to vaccine supply constraints number of jabs/day falls to 400, 300 or 200k/day

🔮Predicted Timeline Update on 18 March 31 March➡️All Priority Groups received a 1st dose 31 July➡️All Adults received a 1st dose 24 June➡️All Priority Groups received 2 doses 5 September➡️All Adults received 2 doses Based on current trends, supply, and second doses debt

@lauren_demarcus Dude, what's wrong with your obsession with washing liquid/machine?...

@lailaujayli It's Regent Street

@LukeKerbey @MacauleyClare @rodbishop15 Not true. Why can't NHS find 000s of nurses? Because the general population finds that £25k for is not worth the crap they have to deal with. Hence they are not paid enough. Private hospitals don't have that issue, they pay more.

No one likes a #payfreeze. But how many #publicsector workers have lost their jobs, or had furlough imposed on them, or had a 20% pay cut? That’s what much of the private sector has endured. If we’re all in this together, the pain needs to be shared.

@MacauleyClare @LukeKerbey @rodbishop15 The absolute value of salary doesn't mean much. Even with a 25k salary the NHS can't fill 000s of positions, which means by the law of supply/demand , that nurses are not paid enough. Your son chose a job where there is probably lots of candidates which means he's worth 21k.

@LukeKerbey @TTDLon @rodbishop15 Only just over minimum wage. He’s not complaining but a newly qualified nurse is 25k, plus overtime pension etc. Teachers even more. I’m not sure why the public sector have this belief that they’re really hard done by.

@MaidstonePaul Without a public sector, there is no private sector either. It's not "us" against them. Public sector workers paid for private sector furlough scheme too.

What about all the workers who will be made redundant to pay for this? Without a thriving private sector, there is no public sector.

@SidH10615805 @AngelcynnEng @DrWonko42 @cjsnowdon Starting a "private vs public" debate / Public sector bashing is ridiculous at the moment. Millions sat at home doing nothing for 80% of their pay, notably paid by me, while I had to work overtime unpaid, and I am not whinging or have anything against the private sector.

The economy’s collapsed by more than 10%, tax revenue has evaporated and millions of people are going to be out of work. If the public sector gets off with a mere pay freeze, they should be thankful.