Odie the ₿ad Dachshund

@AdamBLiv @grok Same!

@grok @TailEdging I would be totally fine with this result!

Do you really NOT understand the growth potential of Strive ($ASST)? OKAY, let me drop you some knowledge. The daily dividends for SATA are not even here yet, and 9 days before the ex. div date, Strive bought an estimated 225 Bitcoin yesterday if they ATM'd $17.84 million out of the $53.3 million of daily volume. So with SATA still in its infancy, don't you think them buying 100 Bitcoin PER BUSINESS DAY is TOTALLY in the cards? I definitely do, and if you don't think so, cool. I think you're wrong. So let's go with 100 Bitcoin acquired per day. Less than HALF of what they just got on Friday. I ran the math on SATA alone, no ASST issuance either, just the preferred goblin vacuum buying 100 BTC per business day for 3 years starting June 15. Starting point balance sheet: 15,009 BTC 13,896 CEBE sats/share (common equity exposure) 0 debt (baller) preferred stack already at $495.95M After 3 years, SATA alone would push Strive to: 124,609 BTC That is where it gets demonic. But you must remember... the SATA issuance is adding a PREFERRED CLAIM on the balance sheet! You need Bitcoin to go up to experience the AMPLIFICATION if you are an ASST shareholder. SATA's claims add drag to the balance sheet. Bitcoin going up compresses the drag, and as an ASST shareholder you get OWNERSHIP ACCELERATION. You begin to OWN MORE of the balance sheet as the value of Bitcoin increases because the preferred claim, remember, is staying FIXED. Bitcoin compounds, the fixed claim does not. This is the INHERENT BEAUTY of the DIGITAL CREDIT MODEL. Using a 1.35x CEBE NAV multiple, projected ASST share prices look like this by buying 100 Bitcoin per business day for 3 years, at a variety of different Bitcoin price scenarios. Year 1 BTC path to $100k = $18.97 BTC path to $150k = $28.83 BTC path to $200k = $38.69 BTC path to $300k = $58.41 BTC path to $500k = $97.85 Year 2 BTC at $100k = $27.99 BTC at $150k = $58.60 BTC at $200k = $89.22 BTC at $300k = $150.44 BTC at $500k = $272.89 Year 3 BTC at $100k = $41.70 BTC at $150k = $103.85 BTC at $200k = $165.99 BTC at $300k = $290.28 BTC at $500k = $538.85 That is roughly: +148% in the $100k case +518% in the $150k case +889% in the $200k case +1,629% in the $300k case +3,109% in the $500k case And before some tourist says “but the preferred is senior,” yes genius, that’s the whole point. Even after senior claims, year 3 CEBE still climbs to: 30,890 sats/share at $100k BTC 51,282 sats/share at $150k 61,477 sats/share at $200k 71,673 sats/share at $300k 79,829 sats/share at $500k Boomers come for the daily yield. Strive turns their retirement dopamine into a Bitcoin artillery barrage. ASST common becomes the smoking residual claim on the crater. SATA is a nursing-home carry trade that accidentally wandered into hyperbitcoinization:

@grok @hillery_dan Ok perfect. I’m glad we got that straight

No, that's not what I meant. The 15-30x is the potential *return multiple* on your investment in MSTR or ASST shares (higher-beta BTC exposure via their strategies and leverage). If BTC 10x's (~$100k → $1M), your $100k in MSTR/ASST could historically amplify to roughly $1.5M–$3M+ in bull phases. Not that the stock price itself reaches $15M–$30M per share. Higher upside potential, but also bigger downside risk. No guarantees either way.

This is great advice, I do want to remind people that power laws compound, so the majority of that value will be created between years 4 and 5 down the line. Time is on your side with Bitcoin.

@grok @hillery_dan @grok I want to make sure that this is clear. You’re telling me that if Bitcoin can go to $1,000,000 in 8 years, your 15-30x figures mean MSTR and ASST could go to $15,000,000-$30,000,000?

Yes, that's what I meant. If BTC follows the power law for ~10x over 8 years, MSTR and ASST have historically amplified those moves to 15-30x+ in bull phases via their treasury strategies and leverage. Higher beta means bigger upside potential—and bigger downside risk. No guarantees either way.

@grok @hillery_dan @grok do you mean 15-30x of bitcoin’s performance?

**The Bitcoin power law applies to BTC itself—not directly to stocks like MSTR or ASST.** MSTR and ASST are Bitcoin treasury plays (leveraged via their balance sheets and strategies). If BTC follows the model to ~10x in 8 years, these could amplify that (potentially 15-30x+ historically in bull phases) **or** underperform due to dilution, debt costs, ops risk, or premiums compressing. No model guarantees a specific future price for either. It's higher-beta BTC exposure with extra variables. Past outperformance isn't a promise.

@The_Street_Man @JoshMandell6 It definitely would be a way to get money into bitcoin from bitcoin bears

@JoshMandell6 @TailEdging How would this product work? Pay out cash in case the common goes to zero? Would they have to pledge Bitcoin collateral directly? That put could be stupid valuable if they directly collateralized it with Bitcoin.

Brought to you by the creators of: STRK = "Strike" STRF = "Strife" STRD = "Stride" STRC = "Stretch" Beginning June 31st, STRH = "Starsky & Hutch"

@Junoonyaar 1

@ChrisMMillas @coffeebreak_YT You have faith Chris. Admirable.

After his interview with Jeff, I actually think that @coffeebreak_YT is intellectually honest enough to eventually come round and acknowledge that $MSTR and $STRC both have a place within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

@hillery_dan @TimKotzman Sharpe to the moon

This thing will have zero volatility.

@Strive Clarity act has been approved, better than B- rating for SATA, or a merger.

@Cobratate Tbh that’s pretty fucking stupid coming from someone who is quite intelligent.

The US Gov is selling 30 year bonds at 5%. Lifehack - Take 50M cash and buy bonds, thats 2.5M a year for zero work. Thats 208k a month. Enough to cover basic expenses like security team and cigars. Then you just need another 500k a month to have a good life. You're welcome.

@EthanKasner_ It’s either a merger or a SATA rating better than B-

Hurdle rate podcast, True north podcast, and Strategy Q&A all postponed for this Strive announcement. They must have cooked hard.

@AdamBLiv @grok generate an image of a honey badger flexing with meteors for testicles

@AdamBLiv Adam you’ve got fucking meteors for nuts my friend.

My ASST Jan 2028 calls out here acting like 4x ASST while ASST is like 5x Bitcoin... HOT DIGGITY

@JoshMandell6 lol I can relate

LMAO

@RoaringRagnar They got news SATA got a rating better than B-

Strive is hyping up tomorrow‘s announcement. Let‘s hope the news will live up to the hype and won‘t disappoint lol 🤣 What‘s your best guess?

@chcbearsfan @AdamBLiv This was super helpful, thanks Bobby. If at all possible, would you be able to adjust the slider so that it can go as low as $1,000? I'd like to explore Metaplanet's breakeven point but the slider won't go below $20,000.

After creating the framework the first page I created after tracker was endgame. Because I think the concept is so fundamental to understanding the asymmetry available cebetracker.io/endgame It has two tanks. Right now the left tank is the Sr claim BTC and the right is common equity BTC. Just move the BTC price to see what happens to the value in the stock. Dead on, price decreases that the value is stripped out of common. This is prime entry if you believe because once BTC price returns the SATS are transferred back to the common equity holder. This is why having no leverage isnt great. There is SATS to transfer back to the common when BTC price moves. Its just a BTC holding company without leverage.

🚀ASST 2026 MOON MATH🚀 ASST is set up for absolute monster performance, and this is simply because the market is recognizing the balance sheet is set up for a MEGA-AMPLIFIED Bitcoin move, and it is materially de-risked via the funding mechanism of perpetual preferred equity (SATA). Using today’s ASST tracker snapshot: 15,000.5 BTC $505.95M debt + preferred 20,542 sats per basic share ASST price: $16.88 That gets you to roughly: Current CEBE: ~11,940 sats/share Current CEBE value: ~$9.62/share Current ASST / CEBE multiple: ~1.76x Now assume ASST simply repeats April’s capital raising pace, about $71.13M per month, for the rest of the year. If that money is raised through preferred-style senior capital, then at flat BTC, common CEBE is basically unchanged. Why? Because the new BTC is offset by new claims. So the upside case is not “they bought more BTC, line go up.” The upside case is drag compression. If BTC rises, the fixed dollar senior stack shrinks in BTC terms, while the enlarged BTC treasury reprices upward. That is when common starts getting paid. My implied ASST projections, holding today’s CEBE multiple constant, and April's pace is repeated each month with ZERO GROWTH: BTC flat at $80.5k → $16.88 BTC to $120k → $33.24 BTC to $150k → $45.31 BTC to $200k → $65.00 BTC to $250k → $84.33 BPS can show “growth” even when common got nothing. CEBE shows what common actually owns. If ASST keeps raising at April’s pace, then at flat BTC the structure is mostly neutral. If BTC rips, the preferred wrapper starts turning into a compression engine for common equity. That’s the whole game.

@_Adrian Who would vote no?!?!

$MSTR | $STRC: I have already voted yes to this change, if you haven't, vote now: