Team James

@KobeissiLetter I am not sure the 34 point jump gives anyone new information. We all saw markets move. So, the numbers between 60 and 94 probably mean little. At the extreme, the 94, means the big move is over and that the remaining cash on the sidelines is limited for NAAIM.

@KobeissiLetter From 60 to 94 = a 34 point jump in 4 weeks.

Institutional investors are rebuilding their equity exposure: The NAAIM Exposure Index has jumped +19 points over the last 4 weeks, to 79, the highest since mid-February. This index measures average US equity exposure reported by members of the National Association of Active Investment Managers, making it a key indicator of professional investor positioning. At the same time, hedge fund net leverage has risen +8 percentage points to 77%, the highest since early March. This metric shows the amount that hedge funds are betting on the market going up versus down, with higher readings indicating more aggressive positioning. Both metrics remain well below their December 2025 peaks, suggesting the positioning rebuild is not yet complete. Institutional equity exposure is quickly recovering.

@KobeissiLetter NAAIM is 94, it's highest level since January. (I am surprised I have to be the one to point this out to all of you who are referencing last week's data.)

@nickgiva1 Iran will not participate in negotiations, essentially calling U.S. bluff, and Pakistan has asked that things not get more crazy, which gives USA the excuse it needs for TACO Tuesday. Strait is still closed and investors feeling the excitement of status quo.

There you go. They just needed the 0DTEs to expire.

@PhilosophyOfPhy Every day in the stock market

When two quantum waves meet, they don't just collide, they enter a state of superposition, where their probability amplitudes merge to create an interference pattern. When these waves interact under specific conditions, the particles can become entangled, meaning their "waves" are now mathematically linked across any distance.

@dampedspring Happens to me every, single day. It is both useful and untrustworthy.

I know it's a stupid anecdote and AI will eat the world but I asked Claude if the original grading of sweet and sour for crude oil was based on its taste to humans. This is my response to its nonsense answer.

@Turbinetraveler One of the most dangerous things a pilot has to do. Pilots do practice it, but only on a simulator.

Earlier today, British Airways flight BA268 from Los Angeles (LAX), operated by an Airbus A380 (G-XLEG), performed a go-around at London Heathrow after a full touchdown. 📹: FlightFocus365

I've stopped reading Gulf war headlines. Here's what I track instead. We run an India-focused equity fund. 85% of India's crude comes from imports. Half of that normally passes through Hormuz. So yes — this crisis is personal. But the information environment right now is garbage. Trump says the war ends tomorrow. Iran says Hormuz is shut forever. One analyst says $150 oil, another says $60. You can't build a portfolio view on this. So I've narrowed it down to 4 signals. These are priced by people with real money on the line. They don't lie. 1. Ship insurance premiums through Hormuz This is the single best signal. Lloyd's underwriters have billions at stake on every pricing call. Before the war, insuring a tanker through Hormuz cost 0.25% of the ship's value. Today it's 3.5–10% — and almost nobody is buying. A $100M tanker that cost $250K to insure now costs up to $10M. When this drops below 2%, the people with the most to lose are telling you it's getting safer. No press conference can replicate that. 2. How many ships are actually crossing Every ship carries a GPS tracker (AIS). You can count exactly how many cross Hormuz each day. Before: 100+. Now: 8. That's a 92% collapse. You can't spin a ship being somewhere it isn't. Iran is letting some Chinese and Indian ships through, but it's a trickle. When this number crosses 30–40, trade is resuming. You can track this free on the WTO Hormuz Trade Tracker. 3. Paper oil vs real oil This one most people miss entirely. Brent crude (the headline price) is at $112. But Dubai physical — what Asian buyers actually pay for delivered oil — is at $126. That's a $14 gap. It exists because Trump's comments keep pushing paper prices down. Traders call it jawboning. But the refiners buying cargo aren't getting any discount. If you're looking at Brent to assess India's oil bill, you're looking at the wrong number. 4. The mid-April cliff Multiple emergency measures expire around the same time. The 400 million barrel SPR release runs dry ~April 15. The US waiver letting India buy Russian crude expires. Formosa Plastics has declared force majeure from April 1. Right now these stopgaps are keeping the supply gap at ~5 mb/d. Without them, BCA Research estimates it doubles to 10 mb/d — the largest crude disruption ever. If Hormuz doesn't reopen by mid-April, we're in uncharted territory. Bottom line: track the insurance premium, the ship count, the paper-physical spread, and the April timeline. Everything else is noise.

@zerohedge Not a surprise

Oracle CDS is about to take out its record global financial crisis print

@BrianSozzi Should future expectations on margins and earnings growth come down when oil rises 90% in a qtr?

Tech stock valuations are back to the lows seen around the April 2025 tariff shock:

@dampedspring These do not even seem like real announcements, just empty, desperate attempts to coerce an adversary who has no intent on acquiescing. So, why not get the most explosive move possible before people realize that the breaking news is hollow?

Andy, Most bad news from the White House is coming Friday evenings when markets are closed. This makes sense. (Although one should wonder if the president should be so fixated on financial markets.) Why have recent pronouncements of “one-sided ceasefires” also come after the close? Would it not be more powerful in the last 15 minutes? Any thoughts?

@dampedspring A full meal of tacos that leaves one feeling ugh, causes one to wonder how healthy these tacos were in the first place

Is closing on the lows after a full meal of tacos good?

@BobEUnlimited Just as worried about spreading optimism as they are about actual monetary policy

Kinda funny Fed voters upped the growth forecast for the year in the midst of an oil shock ... Shows how the dots are basically total nonsense right now.

5 years above the Fed's target and moving in the wrong direction ahead.

@Swingtrader Up up down down left right left right

Who remembers?

@dampedspring @FusionptCapital Why would the government ever sell its gold? Seriously.

@FusionptCapital We have a winner for the fourth slot

40% of Americans did not read a single book in 2025. Even more striking is how unequal the distribution of readers has become: Just 19% of US adults account for 82% of all books read, and the top 4% alone account for nearly half (46%). demographyunplugged.com/p/a-generation…

@MasterPandaWu It’s a Friday

He is well aware the market reaction and traders sentiment, so he sneaked this negative news after market closed. Tell me, what is the positive element of this new tariff?

Yesterday's equity put/call ratio .41, lowest since mid May

@KobeissiLetter Retail showing little patience, buying every dip regardless of any other factor, like size of dip

Retail investors bought the dip: Individual investors net bought +$1.8 billion of the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, yesterday, the largest daily purchase since October. This was also the 3rd-largest inflow since the April 2025 market recovery. Year-to-date, retail purchases have exceeded +$1.0 billion every single day. For the week ending January 14th, individual investors purchased +$12.0 billion worth of equities, the largest weekly inflow in at least 3 months. This includes +$4.9 billion in single stocks, the highest in 9 months. Retail investor risk appetite is stronger than ever.