Neil Howe

The single question readers have asked me most since my book “The Fourth Turning Is Here” came out is: “What can we do to prepare for the coming climax?” $HEFT is my answer on the wealth-management side. As an ETF, it’s available to everyone. I’m excited to co-manage it with veteran PM @RPKent—I’ll focus on strategy, RPK will focus on tactics. To my readers: avoid chasing indexes. If you're worried about your inflation-adjusted wealth over the next decade--and wish to do more than hide out in T bills--please give HEFT your serious consideration. For important investor information, including prospectus and risk considerations, visit: hedgeyeam.com/HEFT

America's fertility divide is becoming increasingly geographic. In 2024, the five highest-TFR states were all red states, while the five lowest were all blue. Full rankings and an interactive map are in the article. demographyunplugged.com/p/chart-of-the…

Today is your last chance to take advantage of our exclusive summer offer. You can now unlock the full benefits of Demography Unplugged with a 34% discount on a one-year subscription. That's only $99 for everything Demography Unplugged has to offer.

🚨 Must-watch interview today at 12:30pm ET on Bloomberg Television. Renowned demographer, Fourth Turning author, and $HEFT co-portfolio manager Neil Howe @HoweGeneration joins @kgreifeld, @EricBalchunas and @scarletfu on Bloomberg ETF IQ. The topic: $HEFT, the Fourth Turning, global turmoil, and how investors can navigate it instead of getting run over by it.

I spend every week digging through the data to uncover the demographic trends shaping markets, the economy, and society. For the 4th of July, we're offering 34% off your first year of Demography Unplugged, just $99. demographyunplugged.com/summerdeal

From Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump, AI socialism is emerging as the new battlefront in populist politics. Why are politicians on both the left and right embracing it? I break it down in my latest podcast. demographyunplugged.com/p/episode-98-a…

Just filmed my 2026 US Demography Review. If you are interested in the demographic trajectory of our country, this is the most in-depth reporting you will see all year. demographyunplugged.com/p/video-2026-u…

Neil Howe @HoweGeneration predicted decades ago that a crisis around 2020 would mark a major historical turning point. At @WSJ’s flagship Future of Everything event, Howe explains why the next phase of this chaotic Fourth Turning could bring an even bigger global reset. His framework underpins $HEFT. wsj.com/video/the-four… This material should not be relied upon as investment, tax or legal advice, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell a security or other investment and is not intended to predict or depict performance of any investment. Investors must consult their tax advisor or legal counsel for advice and information concerning their particular situation. For more information, including holdings and strategy, visit hedgeyeam.com/heft

Does Ken Paxton's primary victory make Texas more competitive for Democrats? Not necessarily. In my latest podcast episode, I explain why the conventional wisdom may be wrong. demographyunplugged.com/p/episode-96-q…

Graham Platner (@grahamformaine) will be a much stronger candidate than Gov. Janet Mills. Still, Susan Collins has a long history of surviving difficult election cycles. Expect Maine to be a very close race. demographyunplugged.com/p/episode-95-a…

HedgeyeLIVE is next week! Tickets here: hedgeyelive.com. Amazing guest lineup incl. John Spytek (Las Vegas Raiders GM), @Mike_Taylor1972 @GioValiante @DiMartinoBooth @HoweGeneration @HedgeyeAM @denniswhkwok and many more.

One side effect of recent gerrymandering is that political parties in Congress are becoming even more regional. This echoes the 1850s, and it will likely make partisanship even worse. demographyunplugged.com/p/episode-94-c…

Game. On. 🔥 Hedgeye's 16th "INVESTING SUMMIT" April 21-23 11am-1pm ET 3 days. 9 webcasts. 0 excuses. Reserve your free virtual seat: tinyurl.com/23drmv38

It’s increasingly unlikely Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair before May 15. Powell says he’ll stay on as temporary chair, setting up a direct standoff with Trump that could spill into the courts. demographyunplugged.com/p/episode-93-w…

The trend towards older moms has steadily accelerated over the last 30 years. But these gains are not large enough to offset declines among younger women. For an offset to be effective, we would have to see a significant rise in the birth rate of 30-to 34-year-olds. But we aren’t seeing that. The birth rate for this group is the same in 2025 as it was in 2004. demographyunplugged.com/p/americas-bir…

It’s still unclear if this war is truly over. Trump faces a dilemma: prolonged fighting risks midterm losses, but a bad deal could be just as damaging. Listen to my latest podcast for a deeper analysis. demographyunplugged.com/p/episode-92-w…

Neil @HoweGeneration another nice rip for you in this GE Vernova $GEV eh (new highs)

The Fourth Turning paradox of institutional leadership: The leader presents himself as the protector of the institution’s integrity while simultaneously embodying everything that eroded it. If you haven’t read Neil Howe's The Fourth Turning Is Here, we’d strongly suggest you pick up a copy. @HoweGeneration is our in-house demographer here at Hedgeye, and his generational theory is one of the most important frameworks for understanding where we are right now. Not just in markets, but in society. Howe argues that Anglo-American history moves in roughly 80-to-100-year cycles, each divided into four “turnings” that last about 20 years each. The First Turning is a High—post-WWII America, institutional confidence sky-high, civic order strong. The Second Turning is an Awakening—the 1960s and 70s, when the counterculture began tearing at the social fabric. The Third Turning is an Unraveling—Reagan through the early 2000s, where individualism runs rampant and institutions hollow out. And the Fourth Turning is the Crisis—where everything that was rotting beneath the surface finally collapses under its own weight and forces a total reconstruction. What's particularly important to note is that the Crisis doesn’t come out of nowhere. It’s the product of decades of institutional decay in which the people running institutions got more interested in preserving their own status and comfort than in serving the mission those institutions were built to fulfill.

Great new book by Nicholas Tobias, The Monastery of the Damned: From the Ivy League to the French Foreign Legion. Amazon: amazon.com/Monastery-Damn… Here is my blurb on the back cover.