Tech & Dividends

The Nasdaq 100 is trading at the lowest Free Cash Flow yield in over a decade. $QQQ

Best description of Gen X I’ve ever seen

When we wrote this paper, gold was at $2,000. "All Time Highs. A Good Time To Invest? No. A Great Time." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Brent @SantiagoAuFund ✅🇨🇭🙏👇 As you know, I know. Why. Sorta simple. We Balance Budgets. Remain down to earth. Don’t toot our horn. Produce super technical stuff with good margins. Remain focused in a world increasingly outta of kilt. PS! Did you read that guys SNB point 🤦🏼 Complete BS!!

The birth-rate collapse isn’t just about money, housing, or women choosing careers. The sharper diagnosis: fewer couples. Across the world, young people still say they want kids. But they socialize less, partner less, commit less – and become parents less. Smartphones didn’t make us infertile. They may have made us lonelier. The fertility crisis is really a bonding crisis. ft.com/content/fba35e…

@DavidBCollum @Maverick_Equity @Hedgeye thx Dave!

@TechLongShort @Maverick_Equity @Hedgeye Cape is now 42. The average for over a century was 15. And a few more for laughs...

🚨 Margin debt as a percentage of real GDP soars over 5%

S&P 500 Booming Earnings = materially explained by Hyperscalers Other Income … effects from their investments! P.S. way more via my future two distinct S&P 500 reports, and materially improved in all areas: structure, flow, insights and special metrics you rarely see: ✍️ S&P 500 Report: Valuation, Fundamentals, Special Metrics & Leading Indicators ✍️ S&P 500 Report: Performance, Sentiment, Seasonality, Technical Analysis Free to subscribe = free to enjoy! With respect, Mav

S&P 500 Q1 2026 Earnings & Revenue scorecard (freshly updated May 15th) with 452 (90%) companies in = booming! 👉 Earnings growth +25.5% = very very very solid, and set to mark the 6th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth 👉 Revenue growth +10.4% = highest revenue growth in 3 years = very very very solid also! N.B. this earnings big boom is quite unique because it is NOT coming off an EPS drawdown (recovery) P.S. way more via my future two distinct S&P 500 reports, and materially improved in all areas: structure, flow, insights and special metrics you rarely see: ✍️ S&P 500 Report: Valuation, Fundamentals, Special Metrics & Leading Indicators ✍️ S&P 500 Report: Performance, Sentiment, Seasonality, Technical Analysis Free to subscribe = free to enjoy! With respect, Mav

Buffett on the latest CNBC interview from May 2nd, 2026: 👉 "We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now" 👉 He described markets as "a church with a casino attached", noting that "the casino has gotten very attractive" due to the explosion in short-term trading (especially one-day/zero-day options) and prediction markets 👉 "If you're buying one-day options or selling them, that's not investing. It's not speculating. It's gambling, just totally." The data backs him up, the market is simply saying "Hold my beer!": 👉the notional volume of calls on the S&P 500 has gone from next to nothing to $2.6 trillion, and 👉 today 6 out of every 10 options traded are calls P.S. way more in next Sunday’s report where I will cover many aspects via my updated comprehensive Berkshire report -- new edition coming with material improvements in terms of all the big 3: visuals, insights, structure! ✍️ Buffet’s Berkshire: The Legacy Continues! Stash Away Baby! Valuation, Buybacks, Fundamentals, Optionality and … Patience! Free to subscribe = free to enjoy! With respect, Mav

U.S. government: 👉 to pay 5% interest for their 30-year bond = for the 1st time since 2007 👉 below you can read my dedicated post on the matter from last year … it will be updated this year also … ✍️ U.S. Public Debt Reduction = Hard but Feasible Maverick Special #6 Enjoy! Cheers! Mav

Average yields on long-dated government bonds have reached their highest levels since 2008, h/t @DRBCurtis "The last mile of fighting inflation is a marathon rather than a sprint...there are a lot of upward pressures on rates across the curve:" Apollo's Torsten Slok

🚨 $121.9T, +$17T in just two years; 🚨 artificially inflated asset valuations well beyond underlying economic growth; 🚨virtually guarantee lower future real returns—likely through multiple contraction, higher inflation, or both✅ Historic ATHs ‼️ The JUXTAPOSITION couldn’t be greater ⚠️👇

Another Liz Truss Moment: UK 10y yields jump to 5.17%, highest since 2008.

UK Political Volatility & the 30Y Gilt Yield 📈

Margin Debt (Leverage) as % of U.S. Total Stock Market Value + bonus: overlaid recessions and stock market drawdowns: 👉 = 1.71% = not a 'crazy' value imho 👉 naturally, a better measure than as % of GDP, and also as a $ dollar number P.S. mid 2025 I did an entire post on Margin Debt, many visuals and angles covered, I will update the charts in the updated report this summer -- until then can read the previous one (link in the next tweet): ✍️ Margin Debt (Leverage/Borrowing) by Retail Investors. Maverick Special #7 With respect, Mav

@DavidBCollum @Maverick_Equity @Hedgeye 3x? sounds like a lot! got a chart or two some data for that? thx!

@Maverick_Equity @Hedgeye Except the markets are 3x overvalued...

@SowingAlphaSeed with 29% for the period before, then overall, it looks good, no? Both returns and drawdowns maybe? A simple line chart with the CAGR would be so great to visually see :) THX!

He did annualize 29% returns for the 6.5 years before that.

Apparently Pabrai blocks you if you say anything negative about him, don't even need to mention his X handle. So in honor of that, from Jan 2006 through Dec 2024 his fund returned 8.6% annualized compared to SPY's 10.3% return. His GFC drawdown was 67% compared to SPY's 55%.

@Vince_R_Jansen thank you sir! will check now!

@TechLongShort I included some of the variables in this piece: artificialalphainvestments.com/p/easing-finan… The most recession, as defined by NBER, was at the start of Covid.

Leading macro data are heating up

The death of value over the last 30 years is greatly exaggerated (aqr.com/Insights/Persp…) at least in terms of judging it’s long-term expected return, and when it comes to measures of quality (e.g., profitability, low beta, earnings quality) it’s been a good 30 years. So I’m confused.

I feel like the conventional narrative is that all the IPOs from the 1990s were unprofitable and all the IPOs today are late stage profitable... ...but that's....backward? via @wef theideafarm.com/alternative-in…