Terry Saucier

NEW: The Russian military simply does not have the capacity to overrun Ukrainian defenses that Putin constantly claims. Latest Assessment ⬇️(1/2) Ukrainian forces are successfully counterattacking not only in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions but also in western Zaporizhia Oblast. These counterattacks are generating tactical, operational and strategic effects that may disrupt Russia’s Spring-Summer 2026 offensive campaign plan. The Russian command likely hoped that Russian advances in the Hulyaipole direction would complement Russian advances near Orikhiv, which would in turn enable Russian forces to advance toward Orikhiv from the east and west and later enable advances toward Zaporizhzhia City itself. Russian forces are thus facing a far more difficult battlefield situation in southern Ukraine in early March than they did at the start of 2026. The counterattacks in southern Ukraine are also having strategic effects in other parts of the theater. The cascading effects that the Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka, Hulyaipole, and Zaporizhia directions have generated in other sectors of the front show how constrained the Russian force structure in Ukraine really is.